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Peak oil for newbies

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:21:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'A')re there any estimates on how long will it take before pumping the oil takes as much energy as the produced amount?


You are asking us to spoon feed you a five gallon jug of information. If you don't like reading, you are not going to be able to cover what you will need to cover to get a good grip on this material.

Do you homework before asking questions in class. Seriously.


I mean no disrespect with this but i just felt like i should say this.

I knew nr1 before and nr2 was the answer i was looking for. But since not even you knew the right answer for it i fail to see why its a bad question.

I mean come on.. i cant search trough the entire forum just to find out that there is no answer -,-
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 12 May 2008, 13:50:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'A')re there any estimates on how long will it take before pumping the oil takes as much energy as the produced amount?


You are asking us to spoon feed you a five gallon jug of information. If you don't like reading, you are not going to be able to cover what you will need to cover to get a good grip on this material.

Do you homework before asking questions in class. Seriously.


I mean no disrespect with this but i just felt like i should say this.

I knew nr1 before and nr2 was the answer i was looking for. But since not even you knew the right answer for it i fail to see why its a bad question.

I mean come on.. i cant search trough the entire forum just to find out that there is no answer -,-


I didn't say it was a bad question.

I entered "eroei", "oil" and "negative" in Google and got 20,000 hits, the first couple of pages of which look pretty informative.

The website "Peak Oil Debunked" is worth checking out, but please don't stop reading there.

I ran across a nice overview of EROEI here, and there are also several other articles linked within this overview which also look pretty good.

Enjoy.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:02:57

Well actually the word EROEI was completely new to me, so googling it would have been a challenge.



But thanks for the links.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:08:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'W')ell actually the word EROEI was completely new to me, so googling it would have been a challenge.

But thanks for the links.


No problem, my friend.

It's a lot of stuff to digest.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Mon 12 May 2008, 14:55:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hagakure_Leofman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I') still dont quite get my head around this...


Think of it as a milkshake..............

I like to think of it as a slushee ... all the great stuff comes so fast, then it gets harder and harder to suck out, then you're left with the crappy tasteless ice that's not worth the bother. Then you throw the cup away. :)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Mon 12 May 2008, 20:22:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hagakure_Leofman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I') still dont quite get my head around this...


Think of it as a milkshake..............

I like to think of it as a slushee ... all the great stuff comes so fast, then it gets harder and harder to suck out, then you're left with the crappy tasteless ice that's not worth the bother. Then you throw the cup away. :)


Ah, if only life was a full slushee! Great analogue!

Oh course, if it was, we'd all get grossly obese and as a consequence, we'd die of terrible illnesses.

Oh wait........ life was a full shushee.... 8O
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby kellan1776 » Fri 16 May 2008, 12:12:35

Hello all fellow interested parties out there in peak oil land.

Introducing myself: My name is Kellan and I live in Michigan. I have been fascinated with this subject for over 3 years now and read about it all the time. Many of my friends are sick of me talking about it. My wife is tired of hearing about it. My children hear about it from the dinner table and their eyes glaze over. I talk to my students at work and my colleagues and they have no idea what I am talking about.

I guess I am not a denier but a semi agnostic. I sincerely hope the peak oil scenario is all wrong. But at times I get depressed thinking about it and studying it since it makes sense and is not adequately refuted in my readings.

So I spend my time reading and gathering information and preparing. We have a small amount of land and may have to grow more and more of our own food. We grow some now and try to buy local. We sell fresh eggs to other local foodies. Our house is large but plans are on the table for solar conversion and wind power. I have a good income which allows somewhat of a buffer, but I realize the trouble we all will be in if this comes to pass. I just hope that my planning and preaching will able us to live somewhat of a self sufficient life without hunger or too much hardship if the doomsday scenario comes true.

I tell my wife that I have always been fascinated with colonial history, and perhaps I will actually be able to live it someday!

Regards

K
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Pops » Fri 16 May 2008, 13:14:07

Hi K, welcome.

You are in a perfect situation it sounds like. Use what you read to make plans and do projects that will benefit you come good or bad - dual use = no regrets.

A nicely stocked pantry saves money when you buy in bulk, saves on trips to the market, makes meals more varied, and can keep you alive if there is an infrastructure disruption.

Same with a garden if you like playing in the dirt: a tool shed or shop; woodstove, rainwater collection and the list goes on.

A plan for the worse can also be a plan for the best, you just gotta plan right.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Fri 16 May 2008, 13:39:30

Someone here said that oil production has been the same for 3 years now. Can anyone confirm this?


And if its true then how long do you think that this will last before it starts going down?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Pops » Fri 16 May 2008, 13:48:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'A')nd if its true then how long do you think that this will last before it starts going down?

If anyone knew that you can bet they would not be telling us.

Discoveries have been going down for years, production has been going up for years, seems logical it would plateau at some point and just as logically, after that it will only have one way to go.

Ya place yer bets and ya takes yer chances...
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sat 24 May 2008, 09:59:07

Got a couple of more questions that i cant seem to find an answer to.

Solar power - How long does it take before a solar power generator creates more energy than it took to make it? Are there any other major problems with it that i should be aware of?

Wind power - Same as above.

Coal - If all of our oil needs would be replaced with coal then how long would it last before peaking?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 24 May 2008, 12:06:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'G')ot a couple of more questions that i cant seem to find an answer to.

Solar power - How long does it take before a solar power generator creates more energy than it took to make it? Are there any other major problems with it that i should be aware of?


Only makes power when the sun is shining. Can't put solar power in the gas tank of a car. Many people believe it is simply not scalable to the energy needs it would be seeking to fill.

Overall, solar has a place, but it's unlikely to ever provide more than 10-20% of our current energy needs (my opinion).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ind power - Same as above.


Only makes power when the wind is blowing. Can't put wind power in the gas tank of a car. No scalable either.

Has a place, but probably won't ever be more than 10-20% of our current energy needs (maybe a lot less).

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')oal - If all of our oil needs would be replaced with coal then how long would it last before peaking?


The trouble with coal is not the amount that we have, it's what it does to the environment when you burn it. This problem will catch up with us before we run out of coal. Can't put coal in the gas tank of a car either. Coal to liquids is an interesting technology. I'll let someone else comment on that.

The U.S. is more well positioned than a lot of countries for a post-peak oil world because of our coal reserves. It's environmental impact is going to be a very serious problem, though.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sat 24 May 2008, 12:54:44

Why cant solar/wind ever be more than 10-20%?

And isnt there some of way storing the energy when theres too much wind?


(Just so that people wont forget: still looking for an answer to this question: " How long does it take before a solar power generator creates more energy than it took to make it?")
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 24 May 2008, 12:55:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'A')nd if its true then how long do you think that this will last before it starts going down?


It's going down right now. Limited supplies are driving up the price; in the past producers would put more oil on the market to bring the price down to what they deemed reasonable for the consuming nations to function properly, have their economies grow, and continue to buy their product. This is no longer the case - producing nations are incapable of increasing their output, or are unwilling to do so - raising the output of an oil field will effect how much oil will ultimately be capable of being extracted, a phenomenon known as rate sensitivity. It is in their better interests to hold on to their oil for the future, when the price will be all the more higher than it is now.

As for the knock on effects of increased oil prices, read the various threads in Current Energy News. Peak Oil. We are seeing economic dislocations comparable to those that attended the 1979 energy crisis, when the Shah of Iran was overthrown and they essentially stopped exports; but without a comparable geopolitical event happening.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 25 May 2008, 16:47:39

New folks may want to browse this thread. It is one of many here covering the basics, but it may be useful to you.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sun 25 May 2008, 18:22:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'C')an't put solar power in the gas tank of a car.

Take a look here -- a solar car for the city.
Electric car that can go on the freeway, powered off solar panels in his house.
There's more there on YouTube, but I think solar cars (with battery backup) are viable for transport. The only issue I see is whether they could transport 18-wheeler size loads, which is where the real need is.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 25 May 2008, 18:34:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'C')an't put solar power in the gas tank of a car.

Take a look here -- a solar car for the city.
Electric car that can go on the freeway, powered off solar panels in his house.
There's more there on YouTube, but I think solar cars (with battery backup) are viable for transport. The only issue I see is whether they could transport 18-wheeler size loads, which is where the real need is.

You're talking about an awfully large retrofit.

Most cars run on gas. That's the problem.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby btu2012 » Wed 28 May 2008, 11:46:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I')ve always thought that things would eventually go wrong (water depletion, population growth etc) but never realised that we were so close.
I dont really know what to believe right now... The first time i heard the words peak oil was 5 days ago and now im already planning what kind of a gun im going to buy o.O This is crazy...

It's important to realize that Peak Oil is just one trigger of the crisis. We are entering an era of multiple crises produced by hitting resource limits -- the concurrent manifestation of these problems is one major reason why there are no obvious solutions.

You might be surprised to know that much of this was known to some strategic planners since a while ago. Population problems were widely apparent since after WWII. The systemic global crisis we are now entering was studied in detail in the 70's. A good introduction can be found in the books "Limits to Growth" and "Beyond the Limits" by Meadows et al. There has been much more work besides this, some of it classified.

It's not happening early but right on schedule. Most systems-theoretical models predicted the beginning of the crisis sometime within the first 2 decades of the 21st century, so we are right on time.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby bodigami » Wed 28 May 2008, 21:14:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '(')...)
Here are a few topics to read up on:
EROEI
overshoot and die-off
cargo cults
Jevon's Paradox
cornucopians
zombies

Cargo cults? I don't remember reading about them. Is it something like bunker cults?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Wed 25 Jun 2008, 05:35:26

Does anyone know a site where i could find a list of all energy sources and how much it costs to produce energy with them?
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