[alokin]

I don't remember if this article was discussed here yet:

Not the end...

This sounds far more optimistic than most what I can read here. What do you think of it?

[BigTex]

That fellow is a very good writer.

I don't know if I would call it an upbeat assessment. He basically seems to be saying that the collapse will be slow, as opposed to fast. What he refers to as "ecotechnic societies" makes me wonder if he is referring to Bartertown from Mad Mad: Beyond Thunderdome.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t’s not the end of the world, or even the end of industrial civilization, but if history is anything to go by, we could be in for a couple of very rough decades. A crisis phase in the downward arc of catabolic collapse is not a pleasant thing to live through, and we can expect it to have social, economic, political, and (unless we’re extraordinarily lucky) military dimensions that will transform most people’s lives for the worse, temporarily or forever. That need not stop us from facing the emerging crisis with as much grace and humanity as we can muster, while doing our part to lay the foundations for the ecotechnic societies of the future – unless, that is, we allow premature proclamations of triumph or catastrophe to distract us from the work that must be done.

[alokin]

I think he wants to tell that the collapse will not be entirely, and the industrial society will continue, however on a lower level of everything.
I don't really agree. There is this possibility, but a crash is more likely I think. However often crashes of civilizations are not entirely like the Roman Empire built on the rests of the Greek empire and the Medieval society has lots of its cultural roots in the Roman like the latin language.
Even a partly breakdown of the civilization like in the 20th is something unthinkable for our generation.

[Ludi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hat need not stop us from facing the emerging crisis with as much grace and humanity as we can muster, while doing our part to lay the foundations for the ecotechnic societies of the future – unless, that is, we allow premature proclamations of triumph or catastrophe to distract us from the work that must be done.

[municipal]

If you met one person and he told you that your child was gvery stupid, and likely would not make anything of herself in this world, and then you met another person who told you your child was very bright and was a "hidden genius" who would you believe?

well, that is why no one will believe the truth.

It is definitely the complete and utter end of this planet within ten years.
finis

nada
kaput

over.

now, believe what you want.

[yull]

I've always thought it will be a steady decline on average but with sharp crashes along the way. There are several tipping points that will probably be reached that will cause these sharp downturns, then there will be a partial recovery, then another sharp down turn.

I can for example see the whole financial system going into meltdown when it becomes clear that economic growth is no longer possible and when they can't service all the debt, loans, mortgages etc. So much of the economy is fantasy, based on wealth that doesn't even exist, that it must be stripped away soon.

[MrBill]

I thought it was a good, well-balanced read. I cannot blame any one author for missing some critically important point their post peak oil resource depletion analysis. We may think of thousands of such scenarios, but each one may be slightly off the mark because we are not omnipotent, so we cannot foresee all variables, feedback loops and how they interact with one another over time. We each add a small piece to the puzzle, but even by that act we slightly change the outcome. Our collective actions will either help mitigate the economic and social upheaval of the transition or may exacerbate the pain.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ''')Peak oil' believers

"These survivalists believe in "peak oil,'' the idea that world oil production is set to hit a high point and then decline. Scientists who support idea say the amount of oil produced in the world each year has already or will soon begin a downward slide, even amid increased demand. But many scientists say such a scenario will be avoided as other sources of energy come in to fill the void.

On the PeakOil.com website, where upward of 800 people gathered on recent evenings, believers engage in a debate about what kind of world awaits.

Some members argue there will be no financial crash, but a slow slide into harder times. Some believe the federal government will respond to the loss of energy security with a clampdown on personal freedoms. Others simply don't trust that the government can maintain basic services in the face of an energy crisis.

The powers that be, they've determined, will be largely powerless to stop what is to come.

[SoylentGreen]

No,the Earth will be here until our Sun supernovas.

[phaster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'I') don't remember if this article was discussed here yet:

Not the end...

This sounds far more optimistic than most what I can read here. What do you think of it?

[Fredrik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('municipal', 'I')f you met one person and he told you that your child was gvery stupid, and likely would not make anything of herself in this world, and then you met another person who told you your child was very bright and was a "hidden genius" who would you believe?

well, that is why no one will believe the truth.

[MrBill]

If we are all doomed and nothing we can do could or would mitigate that bleak outcome then there is zero reason to obsess about that eventuality. In which case turn off your computer, go outside, and enjoy your friends and family while you can! On the otherhand if you prefer doomer porn to real human interaction then pull-up a box of kleenex and enjoy yourself!!

[cube]

I think people underestimate how much "fat" is in the system. Take food consumption for example in a 1st world nation. As the economy contracts people will eat one step lower and continue going down one step at a time:

step 1 - eating out at fancy restaurants
step 2 - eating out at fast food restaurants or ordering to go
step 3 - NOT eating out at all or only on special occasions
/// eating at home now
step 4 - eating conveniently precooked and prepackaged foods
step 5 - eating prepackaged but not necessarily precooked foods
step 6 - buying only generic brand foods
/// raw ingredients
step 7 - this is what people ate 100 years ago. real labor intensive home cooking from scratch
step 8 - raw ingredients but cheaper: broccoli and carrots NOT peaches and tomatos
step 9 - raw ingredients of the most basic starches: rice, beans, bread, corn
/// out of food. There is nothing cheaper than basic starches
step 10 - grow your own potato garden
step 11 - cannibalism

Right now the average American is at step 2 which is still pretty damn good. I believe in the die-off scenario (in the "long" run) however I find myself having absolutely NO relationship with 50% of other people on this board.
A die-off is a multi-step process so we have a very long long long ways to go.
IMHO it would take about 40 years of economic contraction to push the majority of Americans down to step 6.

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') think people underestimate how much "fat" is in the system. Take food consumption for example in a 1st world nation. As the economy contracts people will eat one step lower and continue going down one step at a time:

step 1 - eating out at fancy restaurants
step 2 - eating out at fast food restaurants or ordering to go
step 3 - NOT eating out at all or only on special occasions
/// eating at home now
step 4 - eating conveniently precooked and prepackaged foods
step 5 - eating prepackaged but not necessarily precooked foods
step 6 - buying only generic brand foods
/// raw ingredients
step 7 - this is what people ate 100 years ago. real labor intensive home cooking from scratch
step 8 - raw ingredients but cheaper: broccoli and carrots NOT peaches and tomatos
step 9 - raw ingredients of the most basic starches: rice, beans, bread, corn
/// out of food. There is nothing cheaper than basic starches
step 10 - grow your own potato garden
step 11 - cannibalism

Right now the average American is at step 2 which is still pretty damn good. I believe in the die-off scenario (in the "long" run) however I find myself having absolutely NO relationship with 50% of other people on this board.
A die-off is a multi-step process so we have a very long long long ways to go.
IMHO it would take about 40 years of economic contraction to push the majority of Americans down to step 6.

[Revi]

I always liked the ArchDruid Report. I agree with him. It will really feel like the end if you lose your job, or the economy goes sour, but it won't be a zombie doomer crash. It will be more like where I live, but all over the US. Welcome to my world!

"As prices go up, a great many of the poor and disenfranchised worldwide are sliding closer to the edge where destitution turns into starvation. That’s a tragedy, and a moral crisis of no small magnitude. Still, those who think that it announces the imminent collapse of industrial society need to revisit the history of the nineteenth century, when famines racked the Third World with appalling frequency and a good half of the population in many industrial nations lived in desperate poverty. Most people in the industrial world nowadays, I suspect, have forgotten just how much routine deprivation was a part of ordinary life before the brief twentieth-century heyday of cheap abundant energy."
From the Archdruid report.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kublikhan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'I') think people underestimate how much "fat" is in the system. Take food consumption for example in a 1st world nation. As the economy contracts people will eat one step lower and continue going down one step at a time:

step 1 - eating out at fancy restaurants
step 2 - eating out at fast food restaurants or ordering to go
step 3 - NOT eating out at all or only on special occasions
/// eating at home now
step 4 - eating conveniently precooked and prepackaged foods
step 5 - eating prepackaged but not necessarily precooked foods
step 6 - buying only generic brand foods

[kublikhan]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'B')TW I grew up "poor".
I'm at step 2 right now but while growing up it was more like step 6.
What is "poor"? Imagine a family of six living on a single income, NO government assistance. When I said "single income" I don't mean investment banker I mean something much more humble. Use your imagination.
Whenever I hear anyone on this board crying OMG things are getting really bad now I just can't help but roll my eyes. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying there isn't poverty in America but generally speaking the whole of society has absolutely no idea how good and easy they are having it right now.
///
Once (3 out of 4) restaurants go out of business meaning society can no longer afford to pay someone else to cook their food for them, they have to do it themselves then I will consider the situation serious. I'll probably be dead by then.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')f we are all doomed and nothing we can do could or would mitigate that bleak outcome then there is zero reason to obsess about that eventuality. In which case turn off your computer, go outside, and enjoy your friends and family while you can! On the otherhand if you prefer doomer porn to real human interaction then pull-up a box of kleenex and enjoy yourself!!

[nobodypanic]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') always liked the ArchDruid Report. I agree with him. It will really feel like the end if you lose your job, or the economy goes sour, but it won't be a zombie doomer crash. It will be more like where I live, but all over the US. Welcome to my world!

"As prices go up, a great many of the poor and disenfranchised worldwide are sliding closer to the edge where destitution turns into starvation. That’s a tragedy, and a moral crisis of no small magnitude. Still, those who think that it announces the imminent collapse of industrial society need to revisit the history of the nineteenth century, when famines racked the Third World with appalling frequency and a good half of the population in many industrial nations lived in desperate poverty. Most people in the industrial world nowadays, I suspect, have forgotten just how much routine deprivation was a part of ordinary life before the brief twentieth-century heyday of cheap abundant energy."
From the Archdruid report.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nobodypanic', 's')ee the problem w/that scenario is that it ignores the history of modern revolutions. when people that have come to expect a growing standard are faced w/the opposite, you get things like the french revolution.

it's perfectly plausible and reasonable to predict that the wealthy and well off will be lined up against walls and roasted over spits when things get bad.