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New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby MattSavinar » Tue 27 May 2008, 00:02:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geomancer', 'I') believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.


Wow, the AP story sure has brought the gibbering idiots into the fold . . .
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby dinopello » Tue 27 May 2008, 00:05:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geomancer', 'I') believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.


Wow, the AP story sure has brought the gibbering idiots into the fold . . .


Maybe, but this is a commonly held view.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 00:13:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geomancer', 'I') believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.


Wow, the AP story sure has brought the gibbering idiots into the fold . . .


So go away, the average IQ of this joint will jump 50 points....
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 00:23:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')
Wow...and here I was worried about running out soon!


OMG. What in the hell are you talking about?

Reserves mean absolutely nothing. Just speculative numbers on paper until it is pulled out of the ground and used.


To you maybe. But when a bank lends you money based on a professional estimate of their quantity, sounds like SOMEONE thinks they have a value.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '
')The world doesn't have to 'run out' of oil to collapse the current infrastructure.


Well, thats what people keep saying....and here we are, ever since light sweet crude peaked in 2005, still waiting to use those cannabalization recipes dreamed up by the more creative around here.

PS: I've just recently learned how important some of these subgroups are, and am still learning exactly how these subdivisions relate to Hubbert and his original work, which seemed to include nearly everything but didn't break out peaks based on API gravity.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '
')Even an oil shortage of just 5% would probably cause massive disruptions, shortages, and rationing. Stop making idiotic statements about things that you know nothing about.


I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby DantesPeak » Tue 27 May 2008, 00:35:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '
')Well, thats what people keep saying....and here we are, ever since light sweet crude peaked in 2005, still waiting to use those cannabalization recipes dreamed up by the more creative around here.


I'd like you to name one leading person in PO movement that said there would be cannabalization starting in 2005.

Well I'll save you the trouble - no one.

You have a lot of nerve complaining about others when you can't even get the basic facts straight.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby Twilight » Tue 27 May 2008, 00:47:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'I') stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.

Is it their information?

Or are they reproducing spurious claims while not in a position to express an opinion regarding their accuracy, hiding behind good faith to avoid meddling in politically sensitive matters extending far outside their remit?

It is reasonable to assume oil production figures obtained there and elsewhere are quite accurate.

But the accuracy of reserve additions depend heavily on definition - do we count Canadian tar and Venezuelan heavy crude additions or not, do we accept at face value OPEC's massive overnight increases followed by perfect replenishment or not, and so on. Accounting methods replace reserves only on paper. The figure you quoted is unrealistically large and a detailed breakdown will probably reveal changes in accounting treatment without anything in particular happening on the ground.

This debate has been had many times before - the discovery trend in this time period has been awful and production has far outstripped everything but reclassification of asphalt.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby JustaGirl » Tue 27 May 2008, 01:00:06

Geesh, some of you are so rude to 'newbies'(not just this one). I thought the point of this site was to educate people, not scare them away before you even get the chance.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby TheDude » Tue 27 May 2008, 01:53:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'S')o you are bashing a guy for noticing the following.....global consumption between 1980 and 2006 was approx 687 BBO.

Additions to reserves according to the EIA during that exact same time frame are......643 BBO!!!!


Is it Kool Aid that made your avatar turn blue green?

Not even going to detail why your reserves are almost entirely spurious paper fabrications. This sort of thing needs to be built into primers or FAQs; your presenting them here as solid fact when you know the opposing arguments just fine should be grounds enough for the Mods to ban you, if only temporarily. You don't really think you're going to spew this kind of dribble around do you, RGR?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'G')eesh, some of you are so rude to 'newbies'(not just this one). I thought the point of this site was to educate people, not scare them away before you even get the chance.


KillTheHumans is just a troll who was banned in a previous incarnation. Some people around here are a bit abrupt, but that's life. So many of the instant fixes that the public is cheering for really deserve nothing but scorn.

Plenty of people here are nice as pie. I vacillate between that and being a snide prick. :lol:
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby TWilliam » Tue 27 May 2008, 02:24:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JustaGirl', 'G')eesh, some of you are so rude to 'newbies'(not just this one). I thought the point of this site was to educate people, not scare them away before you even get the chance.


What's rude is people joining this site because they read some article in a newspaper, thinking they're just going to start telling everyone here 'how it REALLY is' when they've done little or no research beyond what they've been spoon fed by the mainstream media, or what they've gleaned from the half-drunken blithering of the resident know-it-all at their favorite watering hole.

Not saying you're necessarily one of these JustaGirl (welcome to the site by the way), but most of the people that have been members here for any length of time HAVE actually explored this issue at length, and from many different angles, and while granted it may be true that, as the saying goes, "you catch more flies with a spoon of honey than you do with a gallon of vinegar", the fact is that we've heard, and have explored in depth, just about every variety of "all we have to do is [insert favorite insta-fix here]" and "the REAL reason for high oil prices is because of [insert favorite villain(s) here]", and some have lost patience with endlessly walking people through the same stuff again and again and again, which is why they generally get pointed towards the threads where the particular topic has already been addressed.

We tend to baptize in fire, and if someone is unwilling to don their flame-proof undies (meaning reading up first) before they jump into the fray, they'll likely get cooked rather quickly. It's nothing personal really; it's just that many here sincerely feel that the time for polite hand-holding is well past, and that John Q. Public is now overdue for a hard slap in the face (which is coming by the way, and not from folks here believe me).
"It means buckle your seatbelt, Dorothy, because Kansas? Is goin' bye-bye... "
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby btu2012 » Tue 27 May 2008, 07:27:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geomancer', 'I') believe that oil reserves are increasing and the price increases are created by speculators on Wall Street who are creating an oil price bubble and collapse similar to the sub prime bubble.


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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby btu2012 » Tue 27 May 2008, 07:31:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', 'M')aybe, but this is a commonly held view.


Yeah, apparently.

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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby Smudger » Tue 27 May 2008, 09:32:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '[')I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.


And I rather think dear boy that's the point a number of people are trying to make in their own individual ways! i.e. the EIA (less so than CERA I would say) has approached the future expected amount of oil froman economist's point of view i.e. supply will increase/new oil fields will be found as demand rises.

Many peak oilers disagree believing there is a ceiling and then drop in production i.e. there is a physical limit to waht can be produced. the boundaries are now being met.

I suspect you are probably feeling slightly embarassed now in that effectively you have taken (without questioning it!) the EIA numbers and made a statement on the back of it and then use the fact you were simply using the EIA numbers as some form of shield against people disagreeing with you! . which lets face it is so flawed as an example just ask yourself whether the "new found reserves" really all exist - did they really not increase for OPEC quota reasons for example.

so please if you are going to use data you need to be happy with its accuracy and be able to defend it rather than just a "well EIA says so so it must be true" best regards Smudger
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 10:28:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'I') stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.

Is it their information?


Sure was. Two spreadsheets, one for worldwide consumption and the other for reserves spanning 1980 to 2006.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')Or are they reproducing spurious claims while not in a position to express an opinion regarding their accuracy, hiding behind good faith to avoid meddling in politically sensitive matters extending far outside their remit?


How the heck would any of us know that? Their information is their information, if you suspect everyones information, then its pretty easy to make up your own and declare whatever scenario you'd like I suppose.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')It is reasonable to assume oil production figures obtained there and elsewhere are quite accurate.


As accurate as anything else, and much better than what anyone around here might manufacture.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')But the accuracy of reserve additions depend heavily on definition - do we count Canadian tar and Venezuelan heavy crude additions or not, do we accept at face value OPEC's massive overnight increases followed by perfect replenishment or not, and so on. Accounting methods replace reserves only on paper. The figure you quoted is unrealistically large and a detailed breakdown will probably reveal changes in accounting treatment without anything in particular happening on the ground.


Write the EIA a letter demanding numbers which you like better!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '
')This debate has been had many times before - the discovery trend in this time period has been awful and production has far outstripped everything but reclassification of asphalt.

Actually, the discovery of new reserves during the 1990's was HUGE compared to consumption but that definition includes P2's I believe. I'll bet the EIA sticks with P1's and doesn't get into the speculation on other types of reserve growth.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 10:36:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')
I'd like you to name one leading person in PO movement that said there would be cannabalization starting in 2005.


I wasn't thinking about revered leading members of the PO movement ( like Ruppert and Savinar and Ehrlich ) I was thinking of the experts around here, I mean, we have a proven track record of predicting the future MUCH better than the figureheads....I learned this recently from just such an expert.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')You have a lot of nerve complaining about others when you can't even get the basic facts straight.


Would you like me to round up a link to someone here claiming that as we starve to death during the post peak wars and famine we wouldn't consider such a thing? I'm sure I can find one with a little searching of the forums.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 10:40:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'S')o you are bashing a guy for noticing the following.....global consumption between 1980 and 2006 was approx 687 BBO.

Additions to reserves according to the EIA during that exact same time frame are......643 BBO!!!!


Is it Kool Aid that made your avatar turn blue green?

Not even going to detail why your reserves are almost entirely spurious paper fabrications.


People keep saying that, and we keep putting them in our gas tanks, at both the domestic level as well as the global level.

So as long as "spurious" continues to be turned into actual product, you'll forgive me for giving reality more credit than whatever bluepill/redpill world you happen to live in.
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby KillTheHumans » Tue 27 May 2008, 10:48:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '[')I stated facts obtained from the EIA website and did a calculation on them. Refute the EIA all you'd like, its their information.


And I rather think dear boy that's the point a number of people are trying to make in their own individual ways! i.e. the EIA (less so than CERA I would say) has approached the future expected amount of oil froman economist's point of view i.e. supply will increase/new oil fields will be found as demand rises.


I've talked to the EIA on more than one occasion and haven't met an economist there yet. And they don't even deal with new oil fields beyond their current reporting year, they just report the same sort of information that Oilfiender2 does, call them accountants to BigOil if you will.

Certainly doesn't put an automatic bias in their numbers, they struck me as completely reasonable adder-uppers. When you talked to them was your opinion different?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', '
')
I suspect you are probably feeling slightly embarassed now in that effectively you have taken (without questioning it!) the EIA numbers and made a statement on the back of it and then use the fact you were simply using the EIA numbers as some form of shield against people disagreeing with you! .


Embarassed? Who...ME? For using the best data available to show that yes indeedy, over 26 years we've found less oil than we've consumed? Can't say that using the best data available should ever be an embarassing event. You aren't suggesting that most peakers use poor data just so they can make a point on a manufactured foundation are you?

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Smudger', '
')which lets face it is so flawed as an example just ask yourself whether the "new found reserves" really all exist - did they really not increase for OPEC quota reasons for example.


According to the EIA, we are using them in our gas tanks right now. Sounds like they most certainly exist, and we are using them RIGHT NOW. You don't think they are going to STOP tomorrow do you?
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby TheDude » Tue 27 May 2008, 12:57:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'H')ow the heck would any of us know that? Their information is their information, if you suspect everyones information, then its pretty easy to make up your own and declare whatever scenario you'd like I suppose.


Thanks for the insight, David Hume.

Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Colin Campbell', '1')6 Reserve Reporting
· The industry has systematically under-reported the size of discovery for a host of good commercial and regulatory reasons. It understandably prefers to revise the reserves upwards over time than book them all up front. It is not its job to forecast the future.
· For most purposes, it does not matter, but we need to know the real record of the past if we are to use the trend to forecast the future.
· Governments variously under-report or over-report, or simply fail to update their estimates. As many as 70 countries reported unchanged numbers in 1999, which is utterly implausible.
· We need the "best estimate". It is often called Proved & Probable, such that any revisions are statistically neutral

17 Dating Revisions
· An oilfield contains what it contains because it was filled in the geological past, but knowledge of how much it contains evolves over time.
· If we want a genuine discovery trend, we need to backdate revisions to the discovery of the field.
· Failure to backdate gives the illusion that more is being found than is the case. It is a cause of great misunderstanding

Image

18 BP Reserves
This demonstrates how BP reports reserves, failing to backdate the revisions. It has misled many analysts. The large increases in the late 1980s were simply due to the OPEC quota wars. Nothing was actually added, as I will explain.


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$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')9 Spurious Revisions
I should explain this large increase in greater detail.
· Kuwait added 50% in 1985 to increase its OPEC quota, which was based partly on reserves. No corresponding new discoveries had been made. Nothing particular changed in the reservoir.
· Venezuela doubled its reserves in 1987 by the inclusion of large deposits of heavy oil that had been known for years.
· It forced the other OPEC countries to retaliate with huge increases
· Note too how the numbers have changed little since despite production..
But it is not quite as simple as that, because the early numbers were too low, having been inherited from the companies before they were expropriated. Some of the increase was justified but it has to be backdated to the discovery of the fields concerned that had been found up to 50 years before.

20 Popular Image
The failure to backdate gives this misleading popular image of growing reserves. It is widely used by flat-earth economists in support of classical economic theories of supply and demand

I hasten to add that by no means all economists believe in a flat-earth. There are enlightened economists who now relate economics with resources, and they are coming to the fore.


Image

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')1 Reality & Illusion
This shows the effect of proper backdating. The discovery trend shown in yellow is falling not rising.


Image

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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby TheDude » Tue 27 May 2008, 13:01:59

Incidentally here's what happens to reserves in the US, where genuine audits are conducted - this from who else but the EIA:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he United States had 20,972 million barrels of crude oil proved reserves as of December 31, 2006. This is 4 percent (-785 million barrels) less than in 2005. The
principal factors contributing to the declinewere lower
than average net revisions and adjustments and fewer
total discoveries.
The Gulf of Mexico Federal Offshore and Alaska, two
of the largest U.S. oil-producing areas, reported 10 and
7 percent declines in crude oil proved reserves.Downward revisions exceeded revision increases in these two areas in 2006.
Reserves additions of crude oil in the U.S. did not keep
pace with production. Operators replaced only 52 percent of 2006 crude oil production with reserves additions (Figure 15).


Offshore Reserves (U.S. & State)
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Re: New Oil Reserves vs. Peak Oil

Postby Geomancer » Tue 27 May 2008, 17:34:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Geomancer', '
')
I believe that the major problem faced by Big Oil is not finding replacement oil but keeping the lid on world oil finds in order to maintain present exorbitant prices.

Just watch for the recent speculative oil price bubble created by Wall Street manipulators to pop in the near future.


You sir, are going to have some FUN around here!


I had the impression that you needed some provocation, so I delivered it. javascript:emoticon(':)') I do not know enough about the arguments on each side of the oil reserve controversy to be able to use my knowledge on the subject, so I borrowed some ideas from more eminent thinkers.
Now that I have your attention please be informed that I am well versed in coal gasification and have been involved in the pyrolysis process using plasma energy to convert any organic material to hydrogen and carbon black. More than a decade ago the concept was not profitable, because there was no use for large quantities of hydrogen and even less for carbon black. We have unlimited supply of organic materials suitable as feed material including, but not restricted to garbage, scrap tires, poisonous warfare agents, etc.
Building pyrolysis reactors is cheaper and faster than going for oil in its more difficult formations.
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