[abelardlindsay]

Now that AP and Washington Post are carrying peak oil freak-out stories perhaps long term users should post a paragraph or two summary of what they've learned so far from reading about PeakOil. I've been on this board for 3 years and here's a quick executive summary:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')You will eventually end up realizing that the world population will decline massively over the next 30 years equaling the amount of death seen in all of World War II every year. You will also find out that solar panels aren't going to help and wind will help a little but it's not going to save us, ethanol is a cure worse than the disease , and nuclear capacity is constrained by lack of uranium. The only thing that could help a little is Coal-To-Liquids and that's ruled out because of excessive greenhouse gas emissions though someone somewhere will eventually start doing it. You might also express some hope for an electrified rail infrastructure and electric vehicles during "The transition". However, You will eventually decide that you're going to have to buy a gun and a farm and learn how to grow your own vegetables.

[Cashmere]

Agree, but I add . . .

Nuclear can't be ramped up in any short order - plan 10 years or more just to got one on line.

Don't worry about vegetables until you have your calories lined up.

Calories in 100 bushels of tomatoes, peppers, and zucchini - not many, and won't keep you alive long.

Calories in 100 bushels of wheat, corn, rice - a lot, and will keep you alive, if not 100% healthy, a very long time.

[RedStateGreen]

The global economy is based on both continual growth and endless resources. Without the second, the first goes away.

The concept of peak oil means simply that resources are not infinite. There comes a time when you can only get so much at a time, and that time is here.

Unfortunately, we as a civilization (the US most particularly) don't know how to live without the ever-increasing input of oil, and we don't seem inclined to learn. We can't fix our way out of this, we need a whole new mindset on what the 'good life' is. Until we learn to live more simply life will be painful for everyone, some worse than others.

[WildRose]

For a very good summary/introduction to peak oil, please see the site below. It will give you an overview of most of the relevant issues (agriculture, arable land, oil map, alternatives, lots of graphs - see list of charts, etc.), excellent information.

http://wolf.readinglitho.co.uk/

I am not in any way affiliated with the above site but found it very useful when learning about oil depletion issues.

WildRose

[ivanillich]

A nice, short, and clear peak oil presentation over at The Oil Drum from Gail the Actuary:

The Oil Drum--Peak Oil Overview March 2008

edited to fix url

[Ayoob]

www.dieoff.org

[BigTex]

If you compare the graph of worldwide population growth, economic growth and fossil fuels production over the last 200 years you would see a typical exponential growth curve that begins to look like it is heading straight up.

We are at the top of that exponential growth curve in all three areas right now.

Peak oil represents the point at which all three curves will begin to flatten and eventually fall. What the other side of these curves will look like is unknown, but there is reason to believe that the decline will be as dramatic as the ascent.

Anyone who agrees with my analysis should ask themselves what they are doing to prepare themselves for this post-peak future.

Anyone who disagrees with my analysis should ask themselves on what basis they disagree.

Do you disagree that we are at the top of an exponential growth curve?

Do you agree that we are at the top of an exponential growth curve, but believe that it will continue growing exponentially? If so, what will keep the finite limits of the physical world from interrupting that exponential growth?

Do you agree that we are at the top of an exponential growth curve, but believe that it will suddenly flatten out and will be sustainable at the current levels of prosperity, consumption and population? How would such a "static" state be compatible with economic systems premised upon continual growth?

The critical thing is to think through these issues and make an informed decision for yourself.

[patience]

To help understand current events, such as food shortages, rising fuel costs, and the financial problems in the news, consider how these are interrelated.

Our food supply is presently dependent on fossil energy to produce and transport it.

The US economy is about 70% consumer spending, more of which is being diverted to food and energy costs.

The US transportation system is dependent on oil, the cost of which directly impacts the cost of food, and reduces consumer's disposable income.

As consumers become more financially stressed, the ailing credit system is at higher risk of them being unable to pay debts, putting the stressed financial system at greater risk of failures.

So, just now, when large investment into alternative energy is needed, there is less and less money available to invest, which leaves us more firmly dependent on oil. At the same time, the US govt debt is at record levels, reducing govt's ability to intervene financially.

It is my belief that because of all of the above, we as individuals must assume more responsibility for producing and conserving our own consumables of food and energy, lest we become priced out of the market as is happening in poorer countries now.

[mididoctors]

I sense a sudden influx of confused thinking.

I think its a sad day people have to trawl the interweb for guidance or insight on this issue.

Boris
London

[sittinguy]

The market's been bouncing up and down,, one of these times the down will be the BIG one. Get your underwear clean while you can.

[Mettezz]

- Don't believe everything what the news is telling you when they are talking about alternatives

- Investigate when you doubt about something

[Pops]

I kind of thought Peak Oil's introduction was fairly succinct - though perhaps a little hard to find:

http://www.peakoil.com/sample/

[chumley]

A little snippet from an article I read regarding the US military converting to synthetic liquid fuel.

"The success of the test should have come as no surprise. The synthetic fuel used aboard the bomber was made by Syntroleum using the Fischer-Tropsch process to make liquefied fuel from natural gas. That process was one of two developed in Germany after World War I. The German scientists who developed the process hoped to make coal-rich but oil-starved Germany independent of foreign sources of oil by converting coal into synthetic liquid fuels that could take the place of gasoline refined from crude oil. The process worked so well that it became of major strategic importance to Nazi Germany in World War II (see article page 36). But after World War II, the long era of cheap and plentiful crude oil kept synthetic-fuel technology on the shelf."

http://www.thenewamerican.com/node/1901

The Germans used loads of syn fuels from carbon deposits during WW2. It did not prove completely sufficient for the war effort so they invaded Russia to seize their oil fields. Enough of the history part, just wanted to give some historical example of wide spread liquid syn fuel production.

After the war the cost of producing liquid syn fuels rendered the technology obsolete considering the low cost of oil from oil fields.

The ability to convert coal to liquid fuel has been around for decades and considering the rise in the price of oil a day will come when the production of liquid syn fuels will become very attractive...a no brainer.

The US is the Saudi Arabia of coal, the technology is available and well known. Price pressure is always the catalyst for new ideas, I believe we are fast approaching this stage.