[Graeme]

Peak oil notes by Tom Whipple
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his week’s major news came in a Wall Street Journal story reporting on efforts by the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, “The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand….The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.”

[Graeme]

IEA worried about oil supplies, prepares forecast
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A') leading global energy monitor fears there may not be enough oil to slake the world's thirst — and is preparing a landmark forecast that could reverberate through the global economy even as major companies announce fuel-related cutbacks.
The International Energy Agency is studying depletion rates at about 400 oil fields in a first-of-its-kind study of world oil supply, chief economist Fatih Birol said.
Birol said the IEA study, whose results will be released in November, was prompted by concern about the volatility of world oil markets and uncertainty about supply levels.
Birol would not speculate on whether the forecast, which will predict supplies through 2030, could go sharply downward. "We will see," he said.
"Although the agency's official assessment isn't expected until later this year, the market's interpretation is that global supply may be significantly tighter than previously projected by the major oil market monitors," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy trading advisory service Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Illinois.
Birol said oil companies and governments have cooperated with IEA experts preparing the report, but added, "It is not an easy task. It is the first time this is being done in the public domain on such a scale."

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')b]Peak oil notes by Tom Whipple
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')his week’s major news came in a Wall Street Journal story reporting on efforts by the International Energy Agency. According to the Journal, “The world's premier energy monitor is preparing a sharp downward revision of its oil-supply forecast, a shift that reflects deepening pessimism over whether oil companies can keep abreast of booming demand….The IEA has predicted for several years that crude-oil supplies will arc gently upward to keep pace with rising demand, topping 116 million barrels a day by 2030, up from around 87 million barrels a day now. But the agency is now worried that aging oil fields and diminished investment mean that companies could struggle to break beyond 100 million barrels a day over the next two decades.”

[TonyPrep]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Graeme', '[')url=http://www.energybulletin.net/44660.html]energybulletin[/url]

Disclaimer: Please note members that I am not the author of this article. Tom Whipple is. This is allay the delicate sensibilities of doomers at this site. If you cannot read the article, please consult with your smarter spouse or 5-year-old child.

On a more serious note, the IEA are still continuing their shift toward the "peak oil movement". Run.

[Graeme]

Unfortunately, this was a mixture of a spiders web and the most serious post I've made here recently. I was just waiting for someone to react to the disclaimer. It should have been ignored.

I take the announcement by the IEA very seriously. In fact, it is most promising news we've heard here for quite a while. It should have a major effect on governments around the world.

[Twilight]

Graeme, this is important news, and I just saw it on the front page of CNN.

Link to article.

I wonder whether this is a true field-by-field survey and whether they will take the 400 largest fields or cherry pick ones which don't make the data look bad or touch on national sensitivities. This could be worthwhile work or something meaningless, depending on how they approach it. The IEA could get access, but then there are those words (public domain) "It is not an easy task. It is the first time this is being done in the public domain on such a scale." I wonder how honest people are going to be.

By the way, just a heads-up, but you post most of your articles without comment. While I appreciate you may be trying to appear impartial in spite of your selectiveness, and letting the content speak for itself, this does tend to be frowned upon. People like to know where a person stands on an issue when they draw attention to it. A personal opinion every now and then would not hurt. Otherwise people make assumptions, and you know how that turns out.

[yeahbut]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Drifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')isclaimer: Please note members that I am not the author of this article. Tom Whipple is. This is allay the delicate sensibilities of doomers at this site. If you cannot read the article, please consult with your smarter spouse or 5-year-old child.

[drgoodword]

The IEA's big review is already being discussed here.

[Graeme]

Survivalists may well have a point because we simply do not know when world peak oil will occur, and if it hasn't already, just how long oil will last.

This extremely important study by the IEA may well finally give governments around the world a wake-up call to start preparing for a world with much less oil. Surely they will listen to this organisation.

[Graeme]

Drifter, Thank you for your nice comments. I have just a few minutes to reply. Yes NZ is well placed but we are still vulnerable to economic disruptions elsewhere in the world. Hence my interest in events in your country. America has shown to the world that it can if it wants to respond to calamities magnificiently. Case in point, WW2; and of course the challenge of going to moon. You can do it.