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General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Tue 20 May 2008, 23:54:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'T')hey sure do! But it still hasn't stopped the US from peaking. Oh wait, I can't comment because I am not in the oil industry.


Oh wait! You can comment! Because peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 21 May 2008, 00:07:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jato', 'T')hey sure do! But it still hasn't stopped the US from peaking. Oh wait, I can't comment because I am not in the oil industry.


Oh wait! You can comment! Because peak oil isn't more than an interesting industry factoid and doesn't have anything to do with the hysterics speculated on ad nauseum around here!


KillTheHumans, I know you know a lot about the industry.

Share some of it here.

No need to talk about hysterics. I know there are people who talk out of their ass, but if you want to add to the discussion, knocking heads with them endlessly isn't going to do it.

Post things that help clarify matters for people who are undecided. Don't waste your time on people who have already made up their minds.

Not everyone here is hysterical.
:)
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Wed 21 May 2008, 00:44:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')
KillTheHumans, I know you know a lot about the industry.

Share some of it here.


It is not permitted. Oh, its okay to explain what certain people within the industry do and such, but actual knowledge? I posted an on the scene piece of a recent regional conference related to the largest unconventional oil accumulation within the US. We discussed the numbers, the topics, all sorts of interesting things. We speculated on its size before its size was officially released. And what happened? Because several of us were interested in something which others aren't interested in, they came in and crashed the party and turned it into a "its not enough to save us! its ceramic! its baked potato!"

It didn't matter that there was a nice conversation going, it only mattered that we weren't sticking to the accepted topics, and therefore were only worthy of making fun of because our single topic of interest couldn't mitigate whatever scenario others hallucinated.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')
Not everyone here is hysterical.


Quite true, but they are definitely the more vocal of the group.
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby eastbay » Wed 21 May 2008, 00:57:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('roccman', 'I') think PO.com "experts" should be fined and stripped of there expert stripe if two or more posters debunk their post.

I am tired of this too.

In my mind there are only 2 or 3 "experts" on PO.com and 2 are not even labeled as "experts".

Wake up people!!!!


.... and one was just demoted to moderator and HE was (thankfully) not labeled 'expert' even though he is about as close to it in his field as we have here.

Note: It's really nice to have sprinkled about here at PO.com so many people who are so very knowledgeable in such a wide array of fields.

edit for cussing.
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby TheDude » Wed 21 May 2008, 10:24:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'B')ecause several of us were interested in something which others aren't interested in, they came in and crashed the party and turned it into a "its not enough to save us! its ceramic! its baked potato!"


I've taken quite an interest in the Bakken, but while profitable for investors it won't be a panacea for peak oil. AND as usual you're implying that we don't know the difference between the 42 API oil it produces and the shale formations it's surrounded by.

Almost all of your commentary about the conference consisted of these kinds of snide digs. Between your 'tude and Seahorse's calling you out on claiming to be both a petroleum geologist AND a petroleum engineer, and claiming to have worked for a major AND not having done so, you're not really long on cred.

We had a thread about the revitalization of stripper wells in NW Pennsylvania, where it all began. I've noticed an uptick in production in odd places like WV. How much these nickel and dime operations can help depends on the shape of the downside. Hirsch didn't cover them in his report; he calculated that a crash program for EOR might help produce an additional 3 mb/d after a decade though, but of course this would only be economical on larger fields.
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby KillTheHumans » Wed 21 May 2008, 15:28:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KillTheHumans', 'B')ecause several of us were interested in something which others aren't interested in, they came in and crashed the party and turned it into a "its not enough to save us! its ceramic! its baked potato!"


I've taken quite an interest in the Bakken, but while profitable for investors it won't be a panacea for peak oil.


None of us ever maintained that it was! We were just enjoying the game of trying to beat the "official" estimates to the punch, seeing the angles, enjoying the prospects of a decent boom in oil and gas production ( dear lord...give us one more boom...we promise not to screw it up this time ).

But the instant a few billion barrels shows up, somewhere, somehow, the boys show up to make sure everyone understands that if you aren't talking about doom and gloom and devouring your neighbors then obviously you must be a lunatic, you are acting like <fill in your favorite old boogey man poster >, you should be banned, and on and on.

All we were doing was talking about the Bakken!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
') AND as usual you're implying that we don't know the difference between the 42 API oil it produces and the shale formations it's surrounded by.


We? Maybe not YOU but the instant you say "shale oil" it sure confuses the crap outta more than just a few if the responses in that thread were any indication. Shale = ceramic certainly isn't a mistake I've ever seen a geologist make.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')
Almost all of your commentary about the conference consisted of these kinds of snide digs.


I certainly had a few in there for the easily distracted, didn't I? I also asked for any others who attend these things to chime in to offer their opinion on the proceedings, offsetting my obviously more optimistic outlook on life.

Go count the responses to that offer. Kinda hard to have a give and take conversation when the "experts" around here are designated by something other than their knowledge of the subject in the question.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')
Between your 'tude and Seahorse's calling you out on claiming to be both a petroleum geologist AND a petroleum engineer, and claiming to have worked for a major AND not having done so, you're not really long on cred.


What are you talking about? I pump gas at Go-Mart. If other posters are being challenged on some basis or another, let them defend themselves.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')We had a thread about the revitalization of stripper wells in NW Pennsylvania, where it all began. I've noticed an uptick in production in odd places like WV. How much these nickel and dime operations can help depends on the shape of the downside. Hirsch didn't cover them in his report; he calculated that a crash program for EOR might help produce an additional 3 mb/d after a decade though, but of course this would only be economical on larger fields.

Your "uptick" in PA also applies to the entire country in 2007 according to the EIA. The small companies I am familiar with sure aren't complaining that Hirsch didn't know enough to pay attention to them back in 2005, they are just out happily making more oil and gas because thats what high prices DO.
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 21 May 2008, 18:25:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot all sources are internet articles.


Fair enough... are any of them published on the Internet?

I'm waiting...


Ahem*
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 21 May 2008, 18:32:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot all sources are internet articles.


Fair enough... are any of them published on the Internet?

I'm waiting...


Ahem*


Please tell me you are playing devil's advocate.

Think about it. 3-d seismic was widely used until the 80s like rocdoc 123 stated above. Do you know someone who has owned their property more than 25 years? If so, ask them if they ever executed a seismic permit or lease allowing for geophysical exploration. If they have not, then 3-d seismic has not been shot under their property unless they saw the seismic crew coming down the street.

I wasn't until 1982 but I have read in history books that cities, towns, national parks, etc... were around before then. If so they were around before 3-d seismic was created and 99.999999% of those areas have not been shot.

Think about it. Use your head instead of internet articles.

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 21 May 2008, 18:36:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot all sources are internet articles.


Fair enough... are any of them published on the Internet?

I'm waiting...


Ahem*


Please tell me you are playing devil's advocate.

Think about it. 3-d seismic wasn't widely used until the 80s like rocdoc 123 stated above. Do you know someone who has owned their property more than 25 years? If so, ask them if they ever executed a seismic permit or lease allowing for geophysical exploration. If they have not, then 3-d seismic has not been shot under their property unless they saw the seismic crew coming down the street.

I wasn't born until 1982 but I have read in history books that cities, towns, national parks, etc... were around before then. If so they were around before 3-d seismic was created and 99.999999% of those areas have not been shot. And that is just a small example.

Think about it. Use your head instead of internet articles.

joeltrout


You got me all worked up and I can't type. :-D Please see corrections above in bold.

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 21 May 2008, 19:21:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ot all sources are internet articles.


Fair enough... are any of them published on the Internet?

I'm waiting...


Ahem*


Please tell me you are playing devil's advocate.

Think about it. 3-d seismic was widely used until the 80s like rocdoc 123 stated above. Do you know someone who has owned their property more than 25 years? If so, ask them if they ever executed a seismic permit or lease allowing for geophysical exploration. If they have not, then 3-d seismic has not been shot under their property unless they saw the seismic crew coming down the street.

I wasn't until 1982 but I have read in history books that cities, towns, national parks, etc... were around before then. If so they were around before 3-d seismic was created and 99.999999% of those areas have not been shot.

Think about it. Use your head instead of internet articles.

joeltrout


Use my head.

Now why didn't I think of that?
(Oh... right)

Thanks for clearing that up.

But back to my thoughtless, uninformed, Internet only, ignorance.

So by your reply I'm guessing that you have no idea just how much 3d has been applied across the industry.

Which makes this just a witch hunt.

I have a colleague & friend who runs a 3d seismic company (to remain unnamed), and he reports to me that every 3d seismic exploration service he knows of has been out there going full-bore for almost 10 years, and has been especially intense the past 5.

The geologists I have personally spoken with laugh at the idea of vast, undiscovered fields popping up anywhere on the globe, and laugh harder at the exotic projects coming online these days. (Drilling in frozen seas, or super deep projects etc...)

To argue that significant finds are possible , much less likely, because of unexplored fields, (especially in the US), shows heroic ignorance of the topic at best, and outright deception at worst.

Is it possible that a giant undiscovered lake of oil will be found?

Of course.

And perhaps the moon is made from cheese.

But informed sources doubt it.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 21 May 2008, 19:35:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
So by your reply I'm guessing that you have no idea just how much 3d has been applied across the industry.



I know that all the US hasn't been shot with seismic and that was the discussion you and I were talking about.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
I have a colleague & friend who runs a 3d seismic company (to remain unnamed), and he reports to me that every 3d seismic exploration service he knows of has been out there going full-bore for almost 10 years, and has been especially intense the past 5.



Did you ask him how much land he has covered? It is not as much as you think compared to the total size of the US.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', 'T')he geologists I have personally spoken with laugh at the idea of vast, undiscovered fields popping up anywhere on the globe, and laugh harder at the exotic projects coming online these days. (Drilling in frozen seas, or super deep projects etc...)

To argue that significant finds are possible , much less likely, because of unexplored fields, (especially in the US), shows heroic ignorance of the topic at best, and outright deception at worst.

Is it possible that a giant undiscovered lake of oil will be found?


This discussion was never about finding huge reserves. Again it was about how much of the US has been shot with seismic.

Please show me where I said we would find huge reserves. It can't be found because I didn't say it.


I was hoping you were playing devil's advocate but it appears you weren't.

Again THINK ABOUT IT!!!!

The US land size is 9,161,923 km according to the CIA factbook. If you take that and times it by $20,000 /km like rocdoc123 mentioned above it would take $183,238,460,000.00 to shot the US with 3-d seismic and that would only count if the US was flat.

You might not know but most of the US isn't flat there are mountains which makes shooting seismic difficult and expensive.

Are you seriously this ignorant and unwilling to admit your wrong?

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 21 May 2008, 19:42:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '
')
Are you seriously this ignorant and unwilling to admit your wrong?

joeltrout


Maybe it is the fact that I am 25 yrs old that bothers you. Just because I am young doesn't mean I am dumb. I don't know everything but I do know some things.

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 21 May 2008, 19:54:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')re you seriously this ignorant and unwilling to admit your wrong?


Yes of course.

But if we are not talking about new finds in previously unexplored territory, then what's the point of your "limited 3d" argument?

As an industry insider I'm sure you are aware that some areas are not good candidates for exploration, based on the geologic environment. I'm trying to recall the last time I heard about some wildcat just drilling exploratory sites without 3D first, but I can't remember that far back.

Every potential new site I have heard of in a decade has had 3D. Much of the remaining area just isn't likely to contain any significant oil deposits so... no seismic.

As you are no doubt already aware.

Trying to say that only a small percent of the gross land mass has had 3D surveys is a very misleading thing to post, since most of the unsurveyed areas don't have the geology to support conventional oil deposits.

Oil companies are always trotting out that tired argument. We can't find more oil because the greenies won't let us drill nature preserves & parks.

I call double secret BS on that.

You made the argument, so the burden of proof is on you. I'm just repeating what far more experienced folks than myself have asserted.

The easy to find stuff we have mostly found already.

Sure there's a ton of oil in the mountains... but it's locked up in shale & sands and is not comparable to conventional deposits.

What's with the "ignorant & intractable" slurs guy?

You claimed 3D limitations, I disagreed and asked for some corroborating source to support your argument.

What?
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 21 May 2008, 20:01:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '
')
Are you seriously this ignorant and unwilling to admit your wrong?

joeltrout


Maybe it is the fact that I am 25 yrs old that bothers you. Just because I am young doesn't mean I am dumb. I don't know everything but I do know some things.

joeltrout


joeltrout, this is the first time it has even occurred to me that you are 25 because in most of your posts you sound older. You know a lot for your age (you probably know a lot for any age) and you are usually pretty level-headed.

If you would like to, just see if you can round up an article or something to post here discussing your points in a little more detail.

I get mad too sometimes. It's cool. :)
:)
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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 21 May 2008, 20:05:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
As an industry insider I'm sure you are aware that some areas are not good candidates for exploration, based on the geologic environment. I'm trying to recall the last time I heard about some wildcat just drilling exploratory sites without 3D first, but I can't remember that far back.

Every potential new site I have heard of in a decade has had 3D. Much of the remaining area just isn't likely to contain any significant oil deposits so... no seismic.



If you would have posted that a long time ago none of this would have taken place.

All your posts gave me the impression you believed the US has been totally explored with seismic and then you challenged me to find "internet sources" that proved otherwise. In my mind that sealed my assumptions you believed the entire US had been shot with seismic.

Total misunderstanding.

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 21 May 2008, 20:08:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
As an industry insider I'm sure you are aware that some areas are not good candidates for exploration, based on the geologic environment. I'm trying to recall the last time I heard about some wildcat just drilling exploratory sites without 3D first, but I can't remember that far back.

Every potential new site I have heard of in a decade has had 3D. Much of the remaining area just isn't likely to contain any significant oil deposits so... no seismic.



If you would have posted that a long time ago none of this would have taken place.

All your posts gave me the impression you believed the US has been totally explored with seismic and then you challenged me to find "internet sources" that proved otherwise. In my mind that sealed my assumptions you believed the entire US had been shot with seismic.

Total misunderstanding.

joeltrout


No problemo Amigo.

Happens all the time.

Sorry I was not more clear from the beginning.
The problem is, of course, that not only is economics bankrupt, but it has always been nothing more than politics in disguise... economics is a form of brain damage.

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby joeltrout » Wed 21 May 2008, 20:34:24

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
No problemo Amigo.

Happens all the time.

Sorry I was not more clear from the beginning.


I am not a betting man.....but I would have bet money you believed the entire US had been shot with seismic.

My previous posts reflect that but I now know it was a misunderstanding. So this is a public apology because I said things I would not have said if I had actually known this.

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Re: Know BEFORE You Post

Unread postby Aaron » Wed 21 May 2008, 21:09:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '
')
No problemo Amigo.

Happens all the time.

Sorry I was not more clear from the beginning.


I am not a betting man.....but I would have bet money you believed the entire US had been shot with seismic.

My previous posts reflect that but I now know it was a misunderstanding. So this is a public apology because I said things I would not have said if I had actually known this.

joeltrout


Accepted but unnecessary.

I have seen you to be an intelligent and informed poster.

PAX
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