[azur]

Another thought.

You should not be surprised at the $10/bbl figure. Most offshore fields are only sanctioned for development if they can show an acceptable return at an oil price of $18 to $20/bbl. This number has slowly crept up over the past few years, but oil companies are notoriously conservative in this area.

The cost of development and production has nothing to do with the market price of oil, which is totally driven by supply and demand. Post PO when oil hits $100/bbl, it will still cost $10/bbl to produce in deep offshore (and much less onshore).

The only way out of this is to break the supply/demand equation by securing a dedicated supply sufficient to meet a countries demand, and bypass the international oil market. For example, if the US was to secure supplies from Iraq, Iran and Saudi they could dicatate their own internal sales price, oustide of the chaos in the rest of the marketplace....

Maybe Cheney already thought of that one?

[maverickdoc]

Azur very interesting point, would the rest of the world let the US get away with that?

[azur]

Mav,

If it is dressed up a spreading freedom, ridding the world of nuclear terrorist threats and liberating opressed people, maybe they could get away with it like the last time (remember the WMD scam which netted 110 GB?).

Who exactly would stop the US? The UK would tag along again to get a % cut of the spoils. Russia has enough of her own reserves for now. China has seen this coming and is already trying to line up Plan B. The rest of Europe would of course bitch and be ignored like last time.

Synical I know, but it could happen.

[EnviroEngr]

Pup,

Have you seen this: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5305.html

[SpasticDancer]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('azur', 'T')he cost of development and production has nothing to do with the market price of oil, which is totally driven by supply and demand. Post PO when oil hits $100/bbl, it will still cost $10/bbl to produce in deep offshore (and much less onshore).

The only way out of this is to break the supply/demand equation by securing a dedicated supply sufficient to meet a countries demand, and bypass the international oil market. For example, if the US was to secure supplies from Iraq, Iran and Saudi they could dicatate their own internal sales price, oustide of the chaos in the rest of the marketplace....

[pup55]

ee:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')Have you seen this: http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic5305.html
_________________

[ECM]

I have created a model using an Excel spreadsheet and these are the numbers I come up with using different scenarios.

I started all the charts at 1 GB/Year during year 1 production and used varying rates of growth and decline. These charts assume a perfect bell curve.


Scenario 1
First year growth is 10%
Growth declines at 0.144%/Year

Total Production is 2021 GB
Peak Production of 30.3 GB/Year
Peak year = 71.0
50% of peak production = Year 102 (31 years for first halving)
25% of peak production = Year 115 (13 years for second halving)


Scenario 2
First year growth is 12%
Growth declines at 0.207%/Year

Total Production is 1680 GB
Peak Production of 30.13 GB/Year
Peak year = 59.5
50% of peak production = Year 85.5 (26 years for first halving)
25% of peak production = Year 96.5 (11 years for second halving)


Scenario 3
First year growth is 9%
Growth declines at 0.117%/Year

Total Production is 2230 GB
Peak Production of 30.15 GB/Year
Peak year = 78.5
50% of peak production = Year 113 (34.5 years for first halving)
25% of peak production = Year 127.5 (14.5 years for second halving)


Certain trends are noticed:
Every year the decline as a % of prior year production increases.
The time to lose an additional half of current production decreases with each halving. This is consistent with the prior statement.
Gross production declines increase every year until about 60% of peak production is reached.

Considering the oil embargo effects it is highly likely that our ultimate peak will be less than we could have achieved and that we will hit Peak Oil past the original halfway point.

{touched up for at-a-glance reading; EE}

[Cool Hand Linc]

Can you post these curves? Interesting results.


Particularly, $this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')onsidering the oil embargo effects it is highly likely that our ultimate peak will be less than we could have achieved and that we will hit Peak Oil past the original halfway point.