[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ASHINGTON -- Mexican Energy Secretary Georgina Kessel's warning to the Mexican Congress last week sounded ominous: If legislators did not approve reforms within the oil sector, the country would suffer a "severe energy crisis" within a decade.

That's probably an understatement.

Mexico's oil production is rapidly declining. The Cantarell oil field, one of the world's largest, is responsible for almost two-thirds of Mexico's production. In 2004, it brought up 2.1 million barrels a day; today it produces only half that. Unless new sources are found, Mexico -- up until last year the second-largest supplier to the United States -- will become a net oil importer by the year 2018.

For some countries, being a net oil importer is no big deal. But for Mexico, oil represents the single largest amount of revenue for the federal government -- about 40 percent. This looming "energy crisis" would be felt more than just at the pump. It would be across the board, impacting financial, social and political sectors as well.

[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

Oops! Posted this in the wrong thread.

[aldente]

edited7_6V7V372.jpg

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')onder how far they can go - or if increased crude prices will counterbalance loss of revenue to the government.

[shortonoil]

Twilight said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or a time it might, there is always a point of "peak profitability", but if Mexico ceases to be a net exporter within ten years, the question is academic. The bottom line is with loss of energy exports, the government will be limited to taxing its own citizens. That is going to be a problem.

[eastbay]

2018.... HAHAHA That just kills me!!!

Mexico will probably become a net energy importer within four years... maybe earlier at the rate their production is falling.

Then they won't be able to pay for imported corn even if there was any... which there probably won't.

The gangsters will then have full control in Mexico. Save them the cost and hassle of conducting elections.

[Novus]

You can't run a country the size of Mexico with Gangsters as it would collapse into something like Somalia. Mexico if it is to survive in any form will need to become a dictatorship and a brutal one at that.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'Y')ou can't run a country the size of Mexico with Gangsters as it would collapse into something like Somalia. Mexico if it is to survive in any form will need to become a dictatorship and a brutal one at that.

[aldente]

What if North America becomes brutal? Good to see you around Novus by the way, I rarely post here anymore but it is worth to re-visit this forum any time.

We try to grasp the moment as of where the switch is flipped from sufficient liquid fuel supply to insufficient. A remarkable moment AKA PO in general terms.

The rest is 'Makulatur' as known in German language, business as usual so to say (mere reflection of the ongoing events).

To disregard does not mean to to disobey by any means or does it?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '
')Mexico if it is to survive in any form will need to become a dictatorship and a brutal one at that.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'W')onder how far they can go - or if increased crude prices will counterbalance loss of revenue to the government.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', '
')
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')018.... HAHAHA Laughing That just kills me!!!

Mexico will probably become a net energy importer within four years... maybe earlier at the rate their production is falling.

[TheDude]

Jeffery Brown mentioned in a TOD article on Cantarell a guy named David Shields who's written a couple of books on Pemex; found some excellent pieces Googling his name tonight, like MEXICO: Pemex Oozes Corruption.

Note the projection of Shields' Brown mentions, that Mexico would be almost done exporting by last December. Wonder what happened - Calderon put the brakes on somehow.

[eastbay]

I remember reading the TOD article and graphs when they came out. Pretty bleak analysis. Funny side note.... did you see how the discussion went straight to corn?

Anyhow, most of us here read the 'expert' predictions all the time, and regarding oil they're almost always seriously wrong. Generally applying common sense is a better approach.

Sometimes it's also better to simply focus on the basics. Look at where Mexico is regarding oil production. Look at the amazing decline rate. And look at where they have to be when the export revenue ceases. The Mexicans know approximately what that date is. That's why they're freaking out right now and the nation appears less stable all the time. It's coming quite soon. Sooner than 2014 or 2018.

Oh, there is one nasty element that might delay the 'magic date': Less domestic consumption in Mexico. That's coming too.

[Mechler]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '
')
Oh, there is one nasty element that might delay the 'magic date': Less domestic consumption in Mexico. That's coming too.

[evilgenius]

I think it was in Foreign Affairs several years ago where I read that Mexico is in danger of splitting up into three Mexicos. They said that it was only the work of the Central Government keeping it together against the inequality between regions. The most likely split up, according to them (if I remember correctly), would be a Northern Mexico, Central (Mexico City principally) and Southern (think renegade Chiapas State with no effective force to put down the dissenters). There is no telling what kind of an effect this would have on the surrounding countries.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'I') think it was in Foreign Affairs several years ago where I read that Mexico is in danger of splitting up into three Mexicos. They said that it was only the work of the Central Government keeping it together against the inequality between regions. The most likely split up, according to them (if I remember correctly), would be a Northern Mexico, Central (Mexico City principally) and Southern (think renegade Chiapas State with no effective force to put down the dissenters). There is no telling what kind of an effect this would have on the surrounding countries.

[DarkDawg]

Can anyone answer this question? Does the recent run up in prices help or hurt Mexico? It seems they would be benefiting greatly right now from high oil prices and if they play their cards right could use that extra revenue to invest in their future or at the very least, buy some time.

[copious.abundance]

For all the talk about declining production in Cantarell, and about Mexican gasoline subsidies, etc., the interesting truth is that oil consumption in Mexico hasn't really grown at all for the past 7 years or so.

Mexico Oil Consumption

Source

[MonteQuest]

And your point is?