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General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Sat 17 May 2008, 16:37:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'T')hat's a totally interesting scenario that I hadn't thought of.

I interpreted it to mean blowing up for instance China's coal plants and such.

When the popular mood turns, I expect it to be quickly. And we are right on time for a mega crisis that involves warfare.


Its a scenario I was thinking of considering the rate of coal-fired electrical plants, China's growing GDP, and CO2e ppm thresholds. Sooner or later countries will have to face the fact that coal creates externalities that are going to engender hostility around the world. If the US continues to use coal after concentrations reach certain thresholds, then I imagine Lovelock's scenario coming true because no superpower will have the moral right to enforce limits on its use. I am biased to imagine that the USA will curtial and reverse its emissions sooner rather than later. I find it easier to imagine a pompous, overbearing, and even pedantic USA as global strong-arm emissions cop, if only because US administrations have a great record of declaring war on something (global warming) and implementing planetary-scale military enforcement. Second, because I believe that China is clearly a scheduled stop for the US military. I have little doubt that China occupies quite a bit of the Pentagon's budget. Targets are mapped and scheduled.

Global warming is going to be, if I forecast correctly, which is to say, less inaccurately than the next guy, kind of a domino effect, with the crescendo being WWIII. Peak Oil is going to create financial and social chaos, to be sure, but in the end the legitimacy of governments are going to be predicated on their ability to keep lights on. When that weighs against CO2e overshoots, I expect one or the other scenario to fall out: either the world's emissions are controlled by a multinational partnership of corporations and governments through treaties, or the global economy disintigrates with the players falling back into bloc alliances and eventually, in a bid to keep the entire biosphere from collapsing or just simply in an effort to turn the GW problem around, one bloc or another uses its force of arms to destroy the emissions capability of the other blocs.

GW is a MAD scenario where nukes are a means to an end, not the end in themselves. The writing on the wall, by the construction of these plants and China's intensification of consumption is simple: they're not going to be able to hit any conceivably effective emission reduction targets, and less so every year out to 2050.

I personally think attitudes are going to shift very quickly in America in the interim transition 2008-2018. There are massive shifts going on culturally right now in respect to the classic psychology of change acceptace: denial, anger, etc. We'll move through these fairly quickly, I think. China's society is less adaptable. If their government panders to nationalist sentiment they will be laying the groundwork for global showdown by 2025.

What a hockey puck looks like when you scale the graph down:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/

Irreversible warming: 450ppm
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Sat 17 May 2008, 16:48:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'I') just talked to a lobbyist from BP yesterday basically admitting that peak oil is here,


It will certainly be to their advantage to portray their industry as one in desperate straits which needs subsidies in order to transition to whatever it is they claim they will be doing to "deal with peak." I personally would not expect anything like honesty from a lobbyist. It is in their interest to say whatever it is might help their corporation or industry, which may or may not have anything to do with the real situation.


The real situation is that BP, like other companies, faces complete overhaul of their business model becuase they are being kicked out of 2 countries for every country they go into. That is, in business terms, a crisis. Soon their integrated business of petroleum supply will be sharply downsized. They will have to restructure and invest in massive energy projects. They will want subsidies to manage risk. They are currently investing in research projects at several American universities. There is no change to the essential weaselness of their makeup. If they can get a handout, they will try for that first.

I expect an expansion of socialism and a curtailment of corporate power in the advent of deep recession or depression. If the government is effective, BP can be reigned in and reorganized into a domestic green-energy innovator.

Sooner or later the reality of the fact that we cannot afford to burn the hydrocarbon fuel in the ground even if we can get at it will transform everything.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Sat 17 May 2008, 17:05:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'I') just talked to a lobbyist from BP yesterday basically admitting that peak oil is here, that the major's energy businesses in carbon are going to be kaput within a short time frame,

Frankly, a strong US military force worldwide might be the best conventional tool to enforce GW and CO2e limits.


First, BP seems to know the score, and don't seem afraid to admit it, at least indirectly via their figures.

http://www.bp.com/statisticalreview

Secondly, USA to "enforce" GW via the military ?? - Utter crap unless the USS Nimitz is to be fitted with sails, and the EA-18G Growlers are converted to gliders.

"Don the tin hats boys, the yanks are a'comin" !!!!!!!!!!

Gasmon


This is simply a scenario building exercise based upon the situation 15 years out. Wars have been fought over table salt. Emissions are going to be demonized like everything else. It will make an attractive moral and political target.

Another wildcard is population and energy intensities of emerging world economies. I am imagining this scenario in a context where America rationally rejects globalism along with much of the "top 20%" of the world.

Basically, I foresee a change in ethos. The Mashall Plan and its Frankenstein stepchildren of globalism, where we believed in some ultimate goal of individual and technological progress for everyone, is going to be abandoned as the body count rises. We will eventually have to start perceiving rationally the ecological and biological (not to mention social or culutral) limits to that policy's effectiveness. We will have to internalize and accept responsibility for fucking up and being to a large degree responsible for simply boosting environmental damage and population with its attendant die-offs.

The one thing I don't think we'll abandon is the idea of America-as-Savior. That delusion conveniently survives even though it was the driver of all the population growth, emissions, and environmental damage. On one hand, it seems contradictory, but on the other hand, it suits our histrionic national ethos perfectly. And who knows, it might just work this time. 8)
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Sat 17 May 2008, 17:18:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'G')W is a dead issue.

When gasoline is at 10 bucks a gallon and people are waiting in line for food - even the granola hysterical crowd - nobody is going to give a rat's ass about the temperature/climate in 100 years.

Nobody ever has, and nobody will again.


I really disagree with this, because you assume that people are going to simply thrash about uselessly at a problem they cannot rationally solve, while neglecting being actually involved in another thing, which is going to be demonstrably relevant in terms of their personal experience and future. People walk around talking about the weather every day even when it wasn't an existential issue. Not so about oil.

Basically, I think people are going to give a rat's ass about temperature and climate in terms of next year, 3 years, 6 years out, and the consequences of those concerns will feedback into their daily lives and personal existences on a daily basis. It will not be completely abstract. At the basis of technological capitalism are growers who produce food, which most of us partake of 3 or more times a day. We've been protected from the reality that weather affects food, which we depend on. Oil, we can do with less.

The difference between oil and food is simple: oil scarcity is a problem for overly proud first-worlders whose whining can in fact create more resource, at least temporarily. Food scarcity creates a quieter, more desperate compliance. Oil lines will be short tempered outbursts of entitlement. Food lines will be shuffling despair and desperation. People will start to think slower and more methodically. They will be more amenable to large-scale social programs, grand social goals, and military action grounded in some moral mission. The military is going to be an island of organization in chaos, a steady job in a a world of uncertainty, power in powerlessness, and best of all, food.

Sooner or later we're all going to be thinking like farmers. Whats the weather like today? Is it going to be a good year? Will we get rain? etc.

At which point, the moral connections start becoming apparent between (I, my, mine) situations, say, and what external influences have at that personal level. We will see people who can mitigate that stress as heroes.

The rationale goes something like this: We're starving because of global warming, GW is caused by GH gasses, China is unrelentingly using their coal plants to starve us to death. Result: we send cruise missles into their coal-fired plants.

Or we can try asking nicely.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BigTex » Sat 17 May 2008, 18:28:03

BlisteredWhippet, you can be so lucid when you want to be. :)
:)
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby threadbear » Sat 17 May 2008, 19:34:26

Whippet, Using the same rationale, can you not see nuclear power production scaled up, internationally,you know...the "clean energy"? Also, is there not a stronger argument for a form of nationalist fascism, rather than socialism?
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby Jack » Sat 17 May 2008, 19:59:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'T')he rationale goes something like this: We're starving because of global warming, GW is caused by GH gasses, China is unrelentingly using their coal plants to starve us to death. Result: we send cruise missles into their coal-fired plants.


A mere palliative. To cure the problem, attend to the underlying issues.

Which is population overshoot, not a surfeit of coal fired plants.

A variety of interesting methodologies for implementation are available.

8)
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Sun 18 May 2008, 17:10:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'T')he rationale goes something like this: We're starving because of global warming, GW is caused by GH gasses, China is unrelentingly using their coal plants to starve us to death. Result: we send cruise missles into their coal-fired plants.


A mere palliative. To cure the problem, attend to the underlying issues.

Which is population overshoot, not a surfeit of coal fired plants.

A variety of interesting methodologies for implementation are available.

8)


The most benign formula for that I can think of is an elite cadre to media producers creating a blizzard of personalities so seductive and compelling that everyone on the planet is convinced to give up wanting a TV, microwave, refrigerator, or running water.

America can't pretend those plants won't be a problem, even if circumstance dictates a contraction politically and economically back into North America.

America can't pretend rainforest destruction in Brazil won't be a problem, even if circumstance dictates a contraction politcally and economically back into North America.

Internally, it cannot pretend that decades of a broken social and politcal system, corporate rule and corruption, health and infrastructure degradations won't be a problem, even if circumstance dictates a contraction politcally and economically back into North America.

America's number one industry is war. America is world cop. America is its military. It's certainly not its 80% retail contingent, the cowering masses of boomer generation Aquarians, the car-bound obese. America is motherfucking cruise missles.

The whole project of trying to disarm America while changing its focus is a complete failure of the capacity of activists to understand the role of a technological superpower on the world stage at this epoch in human history.

Postmodern "Patriots" also misunderstand America's dual role as morally arbiting superpower on the world stage, by NOT changing the military's focus.

The military is simply a belligerent German Shepard on a short leash. America is the timid, poop scooping, feminized dilletante blithely following along.

At the moment.

I argue, that, within 10 years the situation will have changed radically. I think the boomer generation is finally going to give way to a new generational wave that is going to have enough energy and foresight to take control of the military, like a Roosevelt (FDR or Teddy).

That is of course contingent on whether or not America will have any balls left.

An America, with balls, and a ecologically driven mandate, are the last, best hope of averting complete destruction of the biosphere by systemic collapse.

The current thinking is that vegans are empowered when they own a Juicer. I contend that a paramilitary force of vegans, in possession of laser-guided bombs, UAVs, body armor, and vat-grown Quorn, are empowered.

Hippies and thier peace, love, and non-interventionist ethical codes are clearly representational of the slide into vague, bubbly, and masochistic feminine sloth. Doves and bunnies aren't going to do what has to be done to save anything. The braying cackling of donkeys and crows makes a big noise and accomplishes nothing. These so-called exemplars of social change and revolution cannot induce change from the therapist's chair.

At any rate, the list of changes that must be undertaken by everyone to avoid worse outcomes, in my opinion, grows daily and expands in scope and consequence. They are, in order:

1. A reduction of personal energy consumption across the entire fabric of daily life, of fully 80% of modern per capita levels.

2. A full reversal of deforestation globally by 2012.

3. A full reversal of CO2 accumulation by the same date.


I think we can violate any one of these goals (and we will) only to be forced back to the table with worse terms and a more pressing urgency.

Finally, I contend that the latter 2 goals can only be achieved militarily, or by international diplomacy strongly supported by telegraphically powerful and unilateral military policy. The most efficient vehicle to that end is a reorientation of American military policy from the old paradigm of protector of global capitalist interests to American policy directives.

I hope for the best, but expect the worst, optimistically aiming for somewhere in the middle: a competent militant, fascist vegan state.

Worst case is that America surrenders its place as world cop and the lack of clear global leadership will sell out America's interests in terms of the consequents of the three goals: energy production and the biosphere. America's retail armies melt into their leather seats, sucking the sugary corporate line until there is no one can afford each other's "services". A whole nation shot through with pussies willing to inject sunshine right up to the end and sing songs about how great it will be to cry into their shot glasses later.

The Feckless majority is going to have to be thrown violently out into the street. I believe that will happen. I believe that future policy imperatives will be executed by many of the current cash-register operators who will be forced by circumstance into a jobless environment where time for forceful political action will be a daily possibility. We will be slapped to our fucking senses. At which point I can promise that legions of the (relatively) healthy will become the 20 year old button pushing, heavy metal delivering, World Action Force of 2018. That is, if their parents and society haven't done them irreversible harm by polluting them with their failed generational attitudes behaviors, and expectations. I expect a mass youth rebellion around 2014 that will look eerily like Moussolini's youth movement.

It is with this generation that the Earth and every species still living depends, ultimately. I think many contemporary forecasts miss the essential motivational impetus that drives the fundemental inheritors of our situation. The confluence of events at that time period will eliminate the incentive to continue the practices and attitudes of the past. What is required is leadership to take control of this energy and direct in a way that inspires this generation to make the sacrifices necessary to ensure essential quality of life... and along with it a bolstering of the essential nature of American politics: a wave of renewal, growth and change brought about by the principal activity our society is designed for: War.

I can see many stumbling blocks on the way, including a post-Soviet Russian atrophy induced by a selfish, corrupt, and compromising leadership. Bothersome international treaties and obligations. The fundamental problems of contemporary life and their debts.

* I mention vegans only, because I expect a complete vindication of veganism in light of circumstances and consequences coming to light between now and 2018. They are:

1. Prohibitively high prices for natural meat.

2. Extreme Scarcity of natural meat.

3. The massive CO2e load on the biosphere industrial meat production creates- which will later be a specific military target under the tactics implied by military policy outlined above.

4. The massive environmental damage animal production at industrial scales and energy intensity.

And finally,

5. Sources of fungal protein like Quorn that will replace dominant dietary protein sources.

I think these confluences can only support what I believe to be the only acceptable policy for humanity: an adoption of Veganism as a national standardized "lifestyle". I don't believe we'll have to pry the drumstick out of anyone's cold, dead hands because long before then they'll have replaced meat with Quorn in susbstitution.

A Vegan-directed military will basically have the task of cutting off the third world's hand at the wrist when it grabs for the drumstick.


----



PLEASE BE RESPECTFUL

** Please don't reply to this post with any references to "Soylent Green"

THANKS! **





----bonus material:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('some chick from BC', '
')Blah blah nuclear blah blah, etc....


Nuclear is off the table. There is plenty of reason to continue to produce nuclear power, and we will, but the use of fission is not the next generation technology we need to focus on developing. Certainly America's coal consumption needs to be phased out, but frankly, the balance can be justified somewhat if we are using part of that energy to decimate those targets producing coal emissions around the world. Its a sort of cap and trade policy. We will trade with countries who shut down or reverse their CO2 generation, or we will put a cap in their ass(es).

Forum Police:

The issue of hypocrisy is not a valid counterargument. Do not attempt to respond with this logical fallacy.

THANK YOU.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby btu2012 » Sun 18 May 2008, 17:41:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'I') hope for the best, but expect the worst, optimistically aiming for somewhere in the middle: a competent militant, fascist vegan state.


Mr Whippet,

I think that EnergyUnlimited's nuclear solution would be better. Time to ask a Nigerian.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby JPL » Sun 18 May 2008, 19:03:46

BlisteredWhippet

I have a lot of respect for your prior experience & posts but on this one you have totally, utterly, lost the plot.

Sorry.

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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby Jack » Sun 18 May 2008, 21:34:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'A') Vegan-directed military will basically have the task of cutting off the third world's hand at the wrist when it grabs for the drumstick.


As long as it's the third world that suffers, it works for me.

Still, I think that the elites - those with means - will continue to enjoy meat. Perhaps it will become a status symbol, with the wealthy eating real food, and the poor eating some sort of manufactured food.

There was a film to that effect, but I forget the title.

8)
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby threadbear » Sun 18 May 2008, 23:28:06

Great post Whippet.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BlisteredWhippet » Mon 19 May 2008, 15:34:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'B')listeredWhippet

I have a lot of respect for your prior experience & posts but on this one you have totally, utterly, lost the plot.

Sorry.

JP


I understand your comment to be incredulous. Obviously there is a gulf between what we know about ourselves and what we know about the future. All I'm doing is drawing the connections between now and the goal (a reversal of bioshpere destruction), without crossing any of the obvious dead ends:

Pacifism
mass meat-eating
religion
profligate consumerism
toothless environmentalism
corporatism
"democracy"
ethical absolutism
hippyism
mysticalism
Positivism
internationalism
multilateralism, etc.

I fully admit that "the plot" will certainly include some or even most of the above, and I also assume that we will utterly fail, in part or directly because of them.

My scenario is built on what is possible and what is achievable, and formed around what it would take to get there. I also submit that, however insane or conventionally unlikely such events seem now, I suspect circumstances will expand the concept of what is "rational".

At this time in history, in our culture, what is "rational" is tightly constricted by a culture kept under pressure. I predict, along with the great "deflation" of the next several years, an explansion of what is considered rational, as people are forced to confront realities.

What do first world technological capitalists with huge standing armies do when the chips are down and destruction of the world is in the offing?

The culture is going to get a shot in the arm, just as the boomer old guard is hanging up its hat and retiring. The youngsters are going to be willing to give up the old lifestyles and embrace crusades and conflicts. They are not going to accept attrition, or a role of powerlessness in the face of planetary destruction. They are going to decide to give up meat practically overnight as soon as the logic of that conclusion sets in. And they are going to be enthusiastic and competent button-pushing, satellite-targetting, cyber-war operatives.

Generation Xers are going to help demolish the apparatus if the old guard refuses to give up the keys to the Cadillac. Then, it will have body armor rivetted to it and leave the old people in a cloud of dust as they dispense with the muddling moralism of the past as they race to their date with destiny.

A war with a clear goal and high moral purpose is something only the oldest of old-timers are going to recognize.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 19 May 2008, 15:47:29

You're smart, Whippet, but you're the only person on the forum I consider potentially dangerous. I think it's the utter seething, foaming at the mouth hatred of anything that smacks of mysticism, that prompts me to reveal this. Your prescriptions for the future, steeped in moral relativism, atheism, and stripped of the mystical, would create a kind of Hell on earth. Get rid of ethical absolutism? Idi Amin did a good job of that, didn't he?

Your social commentary is superb, though.--Second to none.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby AgentR » Mon 19 May 2008, 16:06:03

I think a much more likely scenario....

The civilized world gets desperate and tells the US and China to stop burning so much coal (or else?), and we, independently acting though we might be, level the muzzle of our respective forces, and firmly tell them.

No.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 19 May 2008, 16:57:54

Humanity hasn't done obvious and simple things to save itself.

Why would it go through the tortured and counterintuitive maze that BW suggests?

It's a nice idea, but it's like saying if your car would fit through your front door you could park it in your living room.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby mgibbons19 » Mon 19 May 2008, 17:54:08

you've been reading strauss and howe.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 19 May 2008, 18:42:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mgibbons19', 'y')ou've been reading strauss and howe.


Who are you referring to?

Who are strauss and howe?

If you are referring to me, I have not been reading them, but please tell us more about their ideas if you would like to.
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby Jack » Mon 19 May 2008, 18:54:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', 'T')hey are going to decide to give up meat practically overnight as soon as the logic of that conclusion sets in.


Not likely. Meat will continue to be enjoyed, both on its merits and as conspicuous consumption.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '
')Generation Xers are going to help demolish the apparatus if the old guard refuses to give up the keys to the Cadillac. Then, it will have body armor rivetted to it and leave the old people in a cloud of dust as they dispense with the muddling moralism of the past as they race to their date with destiny.


Moralism died long ago.

Keep in mind - Old age and treachery always defeats youth and talent.

8)
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Re: Blistered Whippet Reports

Unread postby JPL » Thu 22 May 2008, 19:55:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BlisteredWhippet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JPL', 'B')listeredWhippet

I have a lot of respect for your prior experience & posts but on this one you have totally, utterly, lost the plot.

Sorry.

JP


I understand your comment to be incredulous. Obviously there is a gulf between what we know about ourselves and what we know about the future. All I'm doing is drawing the connections between now and the goal (a reversal of bioshpere destruction), without crossing any of the obvious dead ends:

Pacifism
mass meat-eating
religion
profligate consumerism
toothless environmentalism
corporatism
"democracy"
ethical absolutism
hippyism
mysticalism
Positivism
internationalism
multilateralism, etc.

I fully admit that "the plot" will certainly include some or even most of the above, and I also assume that we will utterly fail, in part or directly because of them.

My scenario is built on what is possible and what is achievable, and formed around what it would take to get there. I also submit that, however insane or conventionally unlikely such events seem now, I suspect circumstances will expand the concept of what is "rational".

At this time in history, in our culture, what is "rational" is tightly constricted by a culture kept under pressure. I predict, along with the great "deflation" of the next several years, an explansion of what is considered rational, as people are forced to confront realities.

What do first world technological capitalists with huge standing armies do when the chips are down and destruction of the world is in the offing?

The culture is going to get a shot in the arm, just as the boomer old guard is hanging up its hat and retiring. The youngsters are going to be willing to give up the old lifestyles and embrace crusades and conflicts. They are not going to accept attrition, or a role of powerlessness in the face of planetary destruction. They are going to decide to give up meat practically overnight as soon as the logic of that conclusion sets in. And they are going to be enthusiastic and competent button-pushing, satellite-targetting, cyber-war operatives.

Generation Xers are going to help demolish the apparatus if the old guard refuses to give up the keys to the Cadillac. Then, it will have body armor rivetted to it and leave the old people in a cloud of dust as they dispense with the muddling moralism of the past as they race to their date with destiny.

A war with a clear goal and high moral purpose is something only the oldest of old-timers are going to recognize.


OK I'm going to pull rank here & point out that I was involved with the Green movement in the UK in the late 80's & early 90's.

Everything you have explained here was predicated in the conversations we had back then & the eventual rise of 'eco-fascism' was INEVITABLE - if we failed in our sworn duty. This arguement you have pulled out was something we knew would be talked about in the future if we screwed up.

So well done, thanks for pulling the old skeleton out of the Green cupboard. But look, you have to realise where all this is going. This again, was predicted. Once you have given the 'Green' mandate to politicians that it's OK to use totalitarian force, how long do you think they will stick with that manifesto?

And after that you have lost everything. The 'war' will have been lost before the first missile ever leaves its silo.

We are talking about the biggest issue of the 21'st century here and you should NOT (pointing accusing finger) lose your faith now. Even if it does, currently, just involve little cristaly things dangling in the window and vegan curries the 'sustainable' vision is still alive & I personally would rather keep that as my 'Armour of Rightousness' than all the nukes in the world.

And who knows, one day, we may even win, because you never-know, at the end of the day, who may also be on our side. I'll raise a secret glass of home-brew to that one (smile).

JP
JPL
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