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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

A preview of people reactions after peak oil.

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 13 May 2008, 00:30:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', ' ')I have decided to shut up now.


:-D

That comment was funny.

I talked about PO with a small local group of people today. The topic was: Why are gas prices so high?

I drew a few bell curves on a piece of paper. Many of you have done this too, I'm sure. At the peak of one I wrote 1970. At the peak of another I wrote 1930. I noted that the USA went from 10 mbpd to 5 mbpd in the past 38 years.

Then I quickly drew two more noting 1965 at the top of one and 2005 at the top of the other. I noted that demand is generally strong and the only way for supply to meet production is for prices to increase high enough so enough people around the world cease buying oil, which is, of course happening.

I also mentioned we're getting so desperate that many countries around the world are starting to burn food in cars thereby reducing available food resulting in much higher food prices.

Amazingly, NOT ONE person out of 15 offered a rebuttal, in fact, all agreed that supply is getting shorter just about everywhere. It was an amazing 10 minute talk. It was the first time I've had no ridiculous fantasy remarks, such as 'hydrogen economy' or 'wind turbines'. People are starting to get it, finally. :)


Hi eastbay:

I had the same reaction when I put together and gave a powerpoint lecture on Peak Oil here in a class at the University of Alaska a few weeks ago. I expected a lot of disagreement and argument, and I prefaced my lecture with disclaimers and apologies for my forthcoming "rant" ---- but after my 45 minute talk most people were pretty much nodding their heads in agreement. There was some skepticism, but I just went through the global production data from the U.S. government's EIA agency again. The data is very compelling----production HAS peaked and is basically on a plateau since 2005.

I agree......people are starting to get it. $4.00 per gallon of gas is getting through to people that something isn't right, and they can see the future isn't going to be the "march of progress" they expected.
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby paimei01 » Tue 13 May 2008, 05:20:41

First time when I told someone : total quiet, and staring at me
Second time : yes, yes, we have 100 years of oil left, stop talking nonsense
http://paimei01.blogspot.com/
One day there will be so many houses, that people will be bored and will go live in tents. "Why are you living in tents ? Are there not enough homes ?" "Yes there are, but we play this Economy game". Now it's "Crisis" time !Too many houses! Yes, we are insane!
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 13 May 2008, 11:28:23

I've tried to tell and explain, almost to no avail.
The only person who was interested was a young man who was trying to drum up customers for his new stockbroker business and was walking the neighborhoods to introduce himself.

Otherwise, I get so frustrated being told "they" will save us, that I am worrying over nothing.
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby Ivan_M » Tue 13 May 2008, 11:30:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Now, if the environmentalists would just get out of the way, the Pacific Coast shoreline has enough oil to supply every man, woman and child for the next 500 years. You want cheap oil? Call the Sierra Club and Greenpeace and tell them to get out of the way of it.


tis an exact quote.
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby FreakOil » Tue 13 May 2008, 11:48:04

First reaction? Paraphrasing a bunch of people: "They" will come up with a "solution."
"We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby FreakOil » Tue 13 May 2008, 11:59:13

I must confess, I didn't read Ferretlover's post before I wrote my own. Now that I have, I must say it's absolutely bizarre the similarity of the responses we have gotten to the subject, and it's even more bizarre the people's faith and dependence on "them."

People don't even have the decency to say who "they" are! Are "they" government? Are "they" business? Are "they" scientists? It's just "them," as if there's some separate group of people completely outside of society, beyond everything that we see and hear, making decisions that will affect the course of humanity.

Maybe it's just an indication of how dissociated the average person is from government, business and academia. They're not even people, they're just "them." Next time somebody talks about "them" and how "they" are going to come up with a "solution," maybe we should continue by asking who "they" are and what have they done for us lately?
"We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby Ferretlover » Tue 13 May 2008, 12:16:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('FreakOil', '
')Maybe it's just an indication of how dissociated the average person is from government, business and academia. They're not even people, they're just "them." Next time somebody talks about "them" and how "they" are going to come up with a "solution," maybe we should continue by asking who "they" are and what have they done for us lately?


Prediction: the response will be something along the lines of "you know, the people who take care of these kind of things."

That's when I put on My deer-in-the-headlights face.
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby bodigami » Tue 13 May 2008, 14:30:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', '(')...)
I drew a few bell curves on a piece of paper. Many of you have done this too, I'm sure.(...)
People are starting to get it, finally. :)


Indeed, I usually do only the [s]1995[/s] 2005 one, explaining about how the 70's oil crisis changed the bell shaped curve.

But even if people start to get it, they don't join the dots. They blame the usual suspects (government, OPEC, ...), and look too calm as if not understanding how much oil is worth for the economy. Peak Oil is great for the ecology, nature, but worst for the economy and us humans (but in a way, it's also great for us)... but people don't think PO makes a collapse of civilization more possible, sometimes "rationalising" with the same old "technology will save us, 'they' have the solution hided and waiting for the perfect time to bring it to the markets".
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby Pops » Tue 13 May 2008, 15:22:00

The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby charliebrownout » Tue 13 May 2008, 16:15:25

Top Ten Reactions to My New Found Concerns About Peak Oil:

10. This is just proof that you read too much.

9. Maybe you're right, but I'm sure someone higher up is working on it.

8. You worry too much.

7. What do you mean it's a bad sign that a 3000 sq. ft. house that cost $300,000 last year now costs $150,000? It's a buyers market again!

6. The powers that be would never let that happen.

5. No wonder you're depressed, look at the books you're reading: Crossing the Rubicon, Straw Dogs, Business Ethics and Society, Politics and the Environment, The Coming Economic Collapse, The Party's Over... Maybe we should go see a movie or something and leave the books alone for a while.

4. How could oil "Peak" I've heard it is a renewable resource or something? It regenerates over time, doesn't it?

3. If we just used American oil instead of Middle Eastern oil--there wouldn't be a problem right now.

2. C'mon.

1. No way.
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby gnm » Tue 13 May 2008, 16:20:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '"')Oh yeah, I know, we've been through all this before in the 1970s."


Yeah I get that one a lot..... I follow it with - Yes, just like the 70's only it won't get better this time because there isn't anywhere else to import from. And from there it continues to decline. Forever.

btw Love the new avatar Tex! :lol:

-G
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 13 May 2008, 16:36:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('gnm', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '"')Oh yeah, I know, we've been through all this before in the 1970s."


Yeah I get that one a lot..... I follow it with - Yes, just like the 70's only it won't get better this time because there isn't anywhere else to import from. And from there it continues to decline. Forever.

btw Love the new avatar Tex! :lol:

-G


"Well maybe if you put as much effort into something more productive than peak oil, the world might look a little different to you."

***

Prairie Mule gave me the new avatar to make up for missing my birthday 37 consecutive times. :-D
:)
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby Moped » Tue 13 May 2008, 23:43:40

I commonly get the reaction that mankind will simply invent or dicover a new energy source to replace oil, I've since learnt on hearing that reaction its time to drop the discussion because I'll just piss them off. Most people don't want to know, its just another thing to make their life difficult.
"I'm here to fight for truth, and justice, and the American way" - Superman
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby jedinvest » Wed 14 May 2008, 16:49:45

My first reaction when confronted with a peak oil graph was to assume that the 30 percent decline point would be the pinch as I assume that I could make due with 30% less of everything (except for money of course, the area where American's are quintessencially screwed)!

I came up with about 2023 when TSHTF but the PO'er said try wrapping your head around 2013 or so! I've been thinking about that ever since, because the big question in all of our minds is the WHEN (not of PO, but of TSH'ingTF)?

The commonest reaction I get from people that have already been exposed to some concepts of PO is that this will be a problem only for our CHILDREN to deal with, the same way they deal with climate change issues. It is interesting how the future of our children is SO DISCOUNTED nowadays, as if that isn't the most important thing.

Anyway, my wife said she had enough of my peak oil infatuation and she told me what's she thinks: Stop worrying about something that only our children will have to deal with!

At that moment, I got fed up with her and told her what I think: I said that's a myth (basically a purposeful lie to get us to not think too closely about it).
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby bodigami » Thu 15 May 2008, 03:50:30

no offense, but what "aware", "noble" and "responsible" wife to have children with!

...I'm seriously considering not having offspring because of how depressed I will feel if because of my actions some humans have to suffer so much... no better wait after a die-off to have offspring; if it's in a brand new, more spiritual civilization.
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby FreakOil » Thu 15 May 2008, 06:15:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'n')o offense, but what "aware", "noble" and "responsible" wife to have children with!

...I'm seriously considering not having offspring because of how depressed I will feel if because of my actions some humans have to suffer so much... no better wait after a die-off to have offspring; if it's in a brand new, more spiritual civilization.


The dieoff could grind on for decades or centuries and probably will.
"We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby scottyboyswa » Wed 21 May 2008, 14:20:52

Hi everyone, it's my first time posting here. I read about Peak Oil about a year ago, and have discussed it with many people as well as blogging about it. My experience has been much the same. "I'm sure the government has a plan," "We'll find more oil" etc... All I can say is there will be a lot of people in for a rude awaking!
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby FreakOil » Wed 21 May 2008, 14:47:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scottyboyswa', 'H')i everyone, it's my first time posting here. I read about Peak Oil about a year ago, and have discussed it with many people as well as blogging about it. My experience has been much the same. "I'm sure the government has a plan," "We'll find more oil" etc... All I can say is there will be a lot of people in for a rude awaking!


Welcome aboard. It's beyond me why anyone would expect the government to come up with something. The people that brought us Vietnam and Iraq are going to solve fossil fuel depletion? What the ...

As far as finding more oil, we'll find plenty more, but it won't make up for declines at other fields. It's the rate of daily extraction that matters, and that's headed down, if not now, then soon.
"We shall live in interesting times, and we shall die in them too." - Heineken
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 21 May 2008, 14:58:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scottyboyswa', 'H')i everyone, it's my first time posting here. I read about Peak Oil about a year ago, and have discussed it with many people as well as blogging about it. My experience has been much the same. "I'm sure the government has a plan," "We'll find more oil" etc... All I can say is there will be a lot of people in for a rude awaking!


Welcome scottboyswa.

There is a fruit and cheese tray near the entrance for newbies.

Enjoy!
:)
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Re: first reactions to peak oil

Unread postby JustaGirl » Sat 24 May 2008, 01:57:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jedinvest', '
')The commonest reaction I get from people that have already been exposed to some concepts of PO is that this will be a problem only for our CHILDREN to deal with, the same way they deal with climate change issues. It is interesting how the future of our children is SO DISCOUNTED nowadays, as if that isn't the most important thing.

Anyway, my wife said she had enough of my peak oil infatuation and she told me what's she thinks: Stop worrying about something that only our children will have to deal with!


That is so horribly sad to me. I have 2 children(we will not be having more) and I will be honest & say the only reason I'm worried about PO is because of my children. I don't want them to suffer or have to deal with this. What happened to people wanting their children to have a better future than themselves? I know I sure as hell do.
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