[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '
')As for whether this is a "premature" spike, why would it be?

[threadbear]

Who's going to complain, after 126.00, when the ppb settles down to a very reasonable 90.00? They'll be dancing in the streets, quoting Ayn Rand and high fiving at the remarkably even handed nature of the "free" markets.

[mmasters]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')ho's going to complain, after 126.00, when the ppb settles down to a very reasonable 90.00? They'll be dancing in the streets, quoting Ayn Rand and high fiving at the remarkably even handed nature of the "free" markets.

[ColossalContrarian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'W')e still don't know what gas should be priced at with $100 oil.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')ho's going to complain, after 126.00, when the ppb settles down to a very reasonable 90.00? They'll be dancing in the streets, quoting Ayn Rand and high fiving at the remarkably even handed nature of the "free" markets.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'T')he ethics of getting rich off the stupidity of others at any time is questionable but during an energy crisis it is even worse. It's like lying in wait for someone to rob.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('ColossalContrarian', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'W')e still don't know what gas should be priced at with $100 oil.

[DantesPeak]

I discussed this a month or so ago, but to recap, for about the last three months, worldwide diesel demand has exceeded available supply. This has created increased demand for oil to be refined.

However the extra barrels of refined oil also produced more gasoline than was needed in late winter - thus putting downward pressure on the price of gasoline. Depending on where the refinery was located and what type of oil was processed, some refineries in Europe are doing quite well with the current price levels of diesel and gasoline.

But in the US, most refineries are optimized to producing gasoline, so high diesel prices did not offset losses on gasoline in January and February 2008. Going forward, the lack of profit incentive will eventually cause gasoline inventories to fall to critically low levels - after which a new phase of shortages and a rapid run up in prices will evolve.

[ColossalContrarian]

So saying that $100 oil = $X.XX gasoline (or diesel) isn’t possible or accurate because too many other variables are involved?

We can only plot estimates as TheDude posted in regards to FreddyH's graphs.

edit: Gasoline/Diesel will always play catch-up and lag the reality of the situation.

To me it looks like the speculation is in the end product.

edit again: or lack there of...

[nocar]

Well, we all know that the US uses 25 percent of the world's oil. That leaves 75 percent used outside the US. Demand might be slowing a little in the US due to recession, but millions of Indians, Chinese, other Asian and also Eastern Europeans have just bought their first car or motorbike. Having spent that much for a new toy of course they will pay what is necessary to play with it. Meanwhile, many Americans consider driving almost as necessary for existence as eating, and will by gas, even while complaining.
The new markets recently have started building new houses all over and new factories, and other giant infrastructure projects. Trucks are necessary to move all the stuff around. Truck makers seem to do well presently, even though GM and Ford might have unsold inventory.
Also for western Europeans the petrol price is rising, although not as much percentagewise as in Europe, because most of the petrol price is taxes. And if the economy is slowing in Europe, the effect have hardly been noticed yet. So no decrease in demand in Europe.
In many developing countries, the electric utilities seem to be under stress with frequent blackouts. Those who are better off get diesel generators which equals more demand for oil.

All over the worid, in the last decades, millions of oilhungry motors have been built. They are all crying for oil. Do not expect the price to drop


nocar

[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he ethics of getting rich off the stupidity of others at any time is questionable but during an energy crisis it is even worse. It's like lying in wait for someone to rob.

[Gerben]

As a person who's driving behaviour is a pure luxury (I can go to the store and to work on a bicycle if I have to), I believe in demand destruction. I know not everybody has that luxury position. But demand will go down at these prices. I don't think it's a question of a premature run up in price. The sooner people are stimulated to change their behaviour the better. I do believe however that the price could go down again, due to reduced demand and/or new production comming online. The market for alternatives is booming. In the long run, oil will not get more expensive than it is now (in real dollars). This price level is not sustainable, but it takes a high price to get back to lower (less high) levels.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gerben', '.').. In the long run, oil will not get more expensive than it is now (in real dollars). This price level is not sustainable, but it takes a high price to get back to lower (less high) levels.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'P')eople must have extra money to afford burning gasoline like that. Gasoline prices don't seem to be "high enough" to get people to change their bad habits.......therefore oil will go up higher!

[JoeW]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', ' ') When fuel costs exceed 50% of the cost of operating a vehicle... THEN you'll see some serious change in peoples behavior.
$10-15 / gallon.

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JoeW', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('AgentR', ' ') When fuel costs exceed 50% of the cost of operating a vehicle... THEN you'll see some serious change in peoples behavior.
$10-15 / gallon.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nocar', '(')...)
In many developing countries, the electric utilities seem to be under stress with frequent blackouts. Those who are better off get diesel generators which equals more demand for oil.
(...)