[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')This morning, I paid $2.62 for gasoline with oil at (essentially) $80 per bbl.

[MD]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '.')..
Remember, that's with refining margins cut to the bone, from around $30/bbl in May to $7/bbl today. Nowhere to go but up from here.

[Starvid]

Supplies might very well grow with oil at $100. I still think we will peak at 90-95 mbpd in some years.

Well, probably closer to 90 than 95.

[americandream]

Wonders whether there's a list of sacrificial lambs being drawn up somewhere.

[Jack]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('emersonbiggins', '
')Remember, that's with refining margins cut to the bone, from around $30/bbl in May to $7/bbl today. Nowhere to go but up from here.

[DantesPeak]

I'm going off topic here, but in the last week or so for some reason there was a surplus of gasoline in Europe which allowed them to sell some extra here temporarily. However that situation may change soon. Gasoline is now 20 cents/gallon less than diesel in the US - which is currently in high demand in the US due to the harvest season.

So the overall profit on a barrel of oil in the US may be higher than first appears - only about 60% of oil refined in the US is turned into gasoline.

Anyway I would expect wholesale gasoline to advance at least as fast as oil proportionally from here out.

[jbeckton]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '
')How much longer will people be rushing out to by Hummers with news like this staring them directly in the face?

[Troyboy1208]

in other news the gas at my corner gas station continues to fall in price. from 2.88 to 2.76. I'm beginning to enjoy the higher price of crude

[lawnchair]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'N')ov. 2 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week on speculation that OPEC won't increase production as fast as consumption grows this winter.

Twenty-one of 35 analysts surveyed, or 60 percent, said oil prices will rise through Nov. 9, the first bullish response since July 6. Ten, or 29 percent, said prices will decline and four forecast little change. Last week, 49 percent of respondents said oil would fall.

... Respondents have predicted price drops in the previous 16 weeks. Prices have declined in five of those weeks. The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 52 percent of the time since the survey's introduction in 2004.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 52 percent of the time since the survey's introduction in 2004.

[mmasters]

Anybody else getting the impression that this increase in oil prices is too much too soon? I think the market is being tested for demand destruction and to what Threadbear said in another thread: the beginnings of an Enron style manipulation of the energy market globally in oil. Furthermore, if people remember when Congress was re-elected last year we had the oil prices come down considerably prior to it. I sense we're going to have a repeat of that this election, a bit of relief before the storm. I'm thinking about going double short in oil especially if the price goes up another 20-30%

[Gandalf_the_White]

Hmmm, that's a strategy. But then United Airlines insiders were projecting $120 through the summer back in March. You must have a really big margin account.

There is enough volatility in the market though that you should expect a retracement. I'm sure someone made some nice cash off of this pull back to $110. I was supprised it was supported there but then again.

You should go short and let us know how it works out for you.

[Jack]

It's clearly overbought...WTIC is well above the 50 day MA...RSA is above 70...Stochastics at 96...price is above the upper Bollinger band...there appears to be support at about 110.XX ($110 dollars and change).

I would guess we're getting ready to come down about 10%, maybe 12%...($10 - $15) soon.

That said, if one is going to short a powerful bull market, close stops are not necessarily a bad thing.

[DantesPeak]

The last six months has seen a very rapid debasement of the US dollar - which actually is the Federal Reserve dollar - since the US government issues only a limited amount of what would be caled real money. The flip side of the debasement of the dollar means that commodity prices should be rising rapidly.

Still, it is hard to quantify just how much oil should be worth in the present scenario. No doubt some type of market cycle will continue and the price of oil could fall rapidly for a short time.

My guess in late 2007 was that the price of would rise about 50% per year, but 30% price swings could occur from that mean increase level at almost anytime.

Also in reviewing first quarter earnings reports, apparently energy companies went short the energy markets in 2007 and now have to buy into high prices just to balance out their positions.

[Cashmere]

Dante - your posts are usually English major perfect in editing. Did you skip that process for the last post?


As for whether this is a "premature" spike, why would it be?

Once the money smells that oil production has flattened/is falling, you won't be able to stop it from pouring in.

Once in a species event, this is.

[DantesPeak]

I left out a few thoughts before. Sorry.

No this is not a premature spike, but all part of what we should expect in the post PO era. Price and supply volatility will only increase over time - probably dramatically so by 2010.

So yes, I agree at some point, the rate of acceleration of oil prices may increase from 50% per year - if not already.

My 'official’ recession forecast was a slow downturn in the economy in the first half of 2008, followed by a more rapid downturn in the second half. So far, my prognosis has been fairly correct. But this means predicting the price of oil in the second half of the year may become difficult.

[Gandalf_the_White]

A 10% correction after Memorial Day would not be a surprise. Even with that gas will keep rising, it has to. We still don't know what gas should be priced at with $100 oil.

You guys are getting good at the Wall Street babble, maybe we should call it Wall Speak.

As far as I am concerned the money means nothing, it's what you do with what you got. If you get more, it's still what you do with what you got.

The ethics of getting rich off the stupidity of others at any time is questionable but during an energy crisis it is even worse. It's like lying in wait for someone to rob.

I feel comforted in knowing that someday know matter how many dollars we can hoard they won't be able to save us.

[Cashmere]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he ethics of getting rich off the stupidity of others at any time is questionable but during an energy crisis it is even worse. It's like lying in wait for someone to rob.

[mkwin]

I have been constantly surprised by how quickly prices have taken off.

The dollar/speculation factor is there but I am of the opinion the 87m barrel production no longer meets hypothetical world demand and there is little room to increase production. This is without any supply shocks.


Goldman Sachs, who predicted the winter surge, is now saying we could see $150-$200 oil within 6-24 months.

[Homesteader]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he ethics of getting rich off the stupidity of others at any time is questionable but during an energy crisis it is even worse. It's like lying in wait for someone to rob.