[stu]

This is something I like to do every so often.

Using the five scenarios listed on Oil Scenarios choose which future is the most likely and then cast your vote in the poll.

I'm voting for pessimistic.

[Plantagenet]

Pessimistic for 10-20 years (i.e. until the boomers start to lose power) and then becoming more optimistic as a new generation with new ideas takes over and has the intelligence and guts to face facts and deal with the peak oil crisis.

[jedinvest]

I voted "Run for the Hills" (I already live in the hills -- but too close to civilization and I wouldn't know how to survive without civilization anyway.), as I am not anywhere near ready with preps for neither myself nor my family. So I am hoping for 10 years of generally downhill. Then, all bets are off IMO. I cannot see how chaos and general mayhem will not rule the day at that point.

[Prince]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'P')essimistic for 10-20 years (i.e. until the boomers start to lose power) and then becoming more optimistic as a new generation with new ideas takes over and has the intelligence and guts to face facts and deal with the peak oil crisis.

[jasonraymondson]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'P')essimistic for 10-20 years (i.e. until the boomers start to lose power) and then becoming more optimistic as a new generation with new ideas takes over and has the intelligence and guts to face facts and deal with the peak oil crisis.

[Pops]

We: Pessimism
Me: Plateau
Mine: Optimistic

Kind of a predictable prediction though...

[FreedomSlave]

I voted "head for the hills", but I think the reality will likely be between that scenario and the "pessimistic". I couldn't go with just the pessimistic vote because of the realities and uncertain timing of the export-land model affect, and because there has been all of jack shit done on any reasonable scale to conserve or mitigate up until this point in time. I think we may actually have a few more years to head for the hills due to conservation efforts (as required by daily living or in the form of demand destruction, particularly third-world), but any catalystic event and/or rapid depletion, etc., could easily increase the rate of economic and societal collapse.

No doubt in my mind, however, the wheels are coming off at a faster pace, and events will compound the severity of our problems at an exponential pace. Full-on fast crash "petro-collapse" is definitely a possibility...

[FreedomSlave]

bump...

[Narz]

I read the descriptions and voted Plateau. This is assuming our governmental leaders stop fucking around and step up to the plate, otherwise halfway between plateau and pessimistic.

[SpringCreekFarm]

I'm finding that the acceleration of recent events has me a little on the pessimistic side. I was hoping for this news to hold off until 2012 or later. It could be that other things will get us before the effects of peak do. Like Heineken says, it will probably be the effects of climate change that take us to the breaking point.

Having said that, I am still moving forward with my life and I'm loving every minute of it. You never know....

[stu]

50 votes and not a Pollyanna amongst them.

4 years ago when this website first started I think we would have had a handful but that was then and this is now.

[patience]

I voted pessimistic, but I think it will actually lean toward something worse. I agree with Plantagenet that the Boomers (of which I am one) who are in decision-making positions will screw it up, striving too long to maintain the status quo. It's too late now, in fact, and I think has been since the 70's to do real mitigation.

What I expect has been covered well on this forum:
1) Govt fiddles and diddles around the problem, supporting the oil industry to the end, giving lip service to alternatives.

2) Individuals are misled by this and wrongly attribute the effects of PO to industry greed (not far off the mark, IMHO), and a plethora of conspiracy ideas. This is the case now.

3) Net result is, we get WAAAAY deep in the crap before anything sensible is done.

4) Govt price/export controls (the cork-for-diarrhea prescription), will produce ghastly shortages of everything from soup to nuts.

5) The pain produced by the original problem and the wrong-headed govt's responses will provoke civil disorder, in turn provoking wrong-headed govt responses again-martial law, whatever. (If it can be screwed up, the govt can do so.)

6) Ugly period. I don't really want to get into that.

7) Way down the road, individuals, being much more sensible than govt's, will find some crude, local solutions for individual problems. Gradually, these will combine to muddle our way to a future of some kind, the gravity of which will be determined by how stupid we all are in the meantime.

Stupid=

False starts into useless technologies.
Govt initiated debacles.
Misdirected rage of J6P.
Continuing on the consumption path.
Screwing up the climate, arable land, water and other resources beyond hope.

I really think we'll do all of the above. Pogo said, "We have seen the enemy, and he is US."

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Narz', 'I') read the descriptions and voted Plateau. This is assuming our governmental leaders stop fucking around and step up to the plate, otherwise halfway between plateau and pessimistic.

[hironegro]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jasonraymondson', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Prince', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'P')essimistic for 10-20 years (i.e. until the boomers start to lose power) and then becoming more optimistic as a new generation with new ideas takes over and has the intelligence and guts to face facts and deal with the peak oil crisis.

[Pops]

The thing about a plateau is they are rarely smooth and individuals can easily trip and fall.

Should one fall in the wrong direction through a misstep of their own or another's, it is a long fast journey down.

That is the problem with thinking solely about "We" and not "Me".


Of course I'm a member of the Me Generation tho...

[Ludi]

Somewhere between "pessimistic" and "head for the hills."

and I'm such a cock-eyed optimist!

[seahorse]

Gasmon,

Would you explain what questions you have about the future of electricity and gas?

[stu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he gas industry in the UK is VERY concerned re future gas supplies. UK has just built 2 large LNG terminals for gas from Egypt, & god knows where else. (why is oil & gas in unstable [pisspot] countries ?). These shipments are "for sale" even as they sail, and are getting outbid and diverted to Japan, Turkey (???), USA, whoever pays the most. As we get more dependant on this LNG, it will become a lottery to keep the pipelines at pressure. NOT a way to "run a railroad"