by Kingcoal » Thu 24 Feb 2005, 11:55:16
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('energyaddict', 'E')uric did very fine - have you noticed the develepment since then...?
The difference in the fundamentials is, that Europe still has a better balance between import and export. The trend of outsourcing is not that much focussed on Asia as it is in the US - it is very much focussed on the FSU countries and their friends like Poland, Slowakia and others. And that is in fact also Europe today...
US has the Dept. but Europe holds part of the bonds... It is still in Asia´s (or say Chinese) interest to trade with Europe - not simply against paper bills of a currency - but in exchange for European goods. The US is mainly exporting food to that countries - that is not real high tech...
If Euroland wanted to bring down the dollar, there is one very simple way: buy like mad from Asia and the Middle East. In order to replace the dollar, you have to do as the heathens do and consume like mad. Euroland would become the consumer of last resort, the world would loose all interest in supporting the dollar and the US would find itself having to purchase Euros in order to buy anything.
Somehow, I don't see that happening. Europeans are too proud and want to buy European products and services and aren't very willing to sell their soul like their USA counterparts. Being a mega consumer means you have to trash your own manufacturing by inflating the hell out of your own currency. This makes it too expensive to make anything in your own country. Then you export that inflation by buying the things you used to make from LCRs. In other words, to take down America, become like America. Even if Soros sells $200B dollars for Euros, it's just temporary. In order to sustain the dominance, behavior changes are needed. Believe me, you Europeans have it good right now. You can invest your tax revenues in quality of life things like infrastructure, healthcare, etc. By contrast, America's infrastructure is falling apart and not being rebuilt and it's healthcare funding issues aren't being addressed. This is because of the huge amount of money spent on actions to retain dollar hegemony. That is the price you pay. I for one, wonder whether it's worth it.