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Peak oil for newbies

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sun 04 May 2008, 19:28:06

It makes you wonder though why hasnt there been any preparation (or atleast any visible preparation) for this. You would think that most goverments have something planned.


Or are they really as incompitent as they seem to be? o.O
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Sun 04 May 2008, 20:02:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I')t makes you wonder though why hasnt there been any preparation (or atleast any visible preparation) for this. You would think that most goverments have something planned.


Or are they really as incompitent as they seem to be? o.O


Micheal Pollen of the NYTimes wrote a good article about our collective inertia in the face of environmental catastrophe. In it, he talks about how difficult it is, on a personal level, to make changes to the way that we live, even when we are aware of what needs to be done.

On politicians and govenment he says we're in trouble if we wait for them...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '"')For us to wait for legislation or technology to solve the problem of how we’re living our lives suggests we’re not really serious about changing."


Now it's taken over 30 years for climate change (global warming) to become a mainstream issue where people have a general awareness of it (however misinformed they often are).

If climate change were a 'mountain' of a problem (metaphorically speaking), then we've been able to see it from a long way away off. To extend this metaphor, peak oil is more like a very large animal suddenly jumping out in front of your car while you're driving at full speed during the night.

While people have known about it theoretically, it hasn't enjoyed the same widespread attention or publication. Presumably because most people assumed we'll find technological solutions to energy depletion.

So are governments aware of peak oil? Of course. The nature and extent of the problem however, is too great for them to simply make an announcement to the public along the lines of "sorry folks, it was good while it lasted!". Instead, you'll see reports of governments undertaking 'security studies' on their energy supplies, and over less conspicuous measures. They are certainly doing something about it. Just look at the USAs response - Bush decided to invade another country in order to attempt to secure oil supplies for his country. Other countries are doing their own moves.

It's unwise to rely on your government.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 04 May 2008, 20:32:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hagakure_Leofman', 'I')t's unwise to rely on your government.


I would second that and add that it's unwise to rely on ANY government.

The fact that you are thinking in terms of "if it were that big a problem, wouldn't the government be addressing it" is something you may look back on one day and laugh about.

Think Hurricane Katrina and multiply by a billion. That's the kind of government peak oil solution you are likely to see.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Sun 04 May 2008, 20:38:20

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'T')hink Hurricane Katrina and multiply by a billion.


Agreed. If some good came out of Katrina, it would be that it's taught people not to expect help.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby jedinvest » Sun 04 May 2008, 22:43:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Hagakure_Leofman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'T')hink Hurricane Katrina and multiply by a billion.


Agreed. If some good came out of Katrina, it would be that it's taught people not to expect help.


Our government, President Dwight D. Eisenhower, in particular, prepared us to face off against the Soviet Union. Our government protected us there. He also warned against the Military Industrial Complex. Who are they looking out for? Themselves!

Like others have said, don't expect outside help.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Mon 05 May 2008, 23:00:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'G')oing trough the links you gave at the moment. Theres one thing i would like to know though.

You say that the economy needs continual growth to or else it will die. Why is that?

The definition of recession and depression both refer to negative growth. It's the way that the system is structured.

Stocks that don't grow get sold. Businesses that don't keep up with inflation end up closing, etc.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Tue 06 May 2008, 06:39:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('RedStateGreen', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'G')oing trough the links you gave at the moment. Theres one thing i would like to know though.

You say that the economy needs continual growth to or else it will die. Why is that?

The definition of recession and depression both refer to negative growth. It's the way that the system is structured.

Stocks that don't grow get sold. Businesses that don't keep up with inflation end up closing, etc.


Put even simpler, if you want to have an ever growing family of children d infinitum, you've got to have an ever growing supply of food ad infinitum.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby steam_cannon » Tue 06 May 2008, 13:29:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')e: Peak oil for newbies
Maybe this should be the peak oil for newbies thread! :lol:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Peak Oil Cartoon - Luz Girl of the Knowing
http://peakoil.com/fortopic39491.html

Image
This comic looks like a good way to introduce peak oil to kids...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Yeah, yeah, I'm still pushing this comic... I like it! :-D
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Tue 06 May 2008, 14:49:44

If peak oil is indeed here then wouldnt this be an excellent time to invest in oil? :evil:


Or am i missing something here? :oops:
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Revi » Tue 06 May 2008, 15:27:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I')t makes you wonder though why hasnt there been any preparation (or atleast any visible preparation) for this. You would think that most goverments have something planned.


Or are they really as incompitent as they seem to be? o.O


They don't want to panic the herd. There is Hirsch's report, but most people don't have a clue. This might be the plan.

The third class passengers on the Titanic were quietly locked under the decks, while the band played on for the middle class passengers on the tilting deck. The first class passengers were quietly shown where the lifeboats were loading, got in and took off.

Time to save yourself. The fact that you know about it gives you a distinct advantage.

The thing to do as a middle class passenger is to tie as many deck chairs together for a raft as possible before the ship goes down.

Keep working at your job, but prepare every day for what's coming.

Here's what we did:

http://www.msad54.org/sahs/appliedarts/ ... /index.htm
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Wed 07 May 2008, 09:43:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I')f peak oil is indeed here then wouldnt this be an excellent time to invest in oil? :evil:


Or am i missing something here? :oops:


Sort of.

The problem is that not only is it becoming difficult to increase production, it is also getting more expensive to maintain current production.

Thus, although oil prices are at all time highs, non-OPEC production costs have also gone up dramatically.

Study the energy industry a lot before you start investing.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby AnIowan » Wed 07 May 2008, 11:42:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I')ve always thought that things would eventually go wrong (water depletion, population growth etc) but never realised that we were so close.

I dont really know what to believe right now... The first time i heard the words peak oil was 5 days ago and now im already planning what kind of a gun im going to buy o.O This is crazy...


Welcome to my mind! :lol: :lol:

I've found the more I read here and else where, the less I want to do rash things. However, the more I want to read, research, and come up with my own conclusions and action plan for myself and my family.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sun 11 May 2008, 11:05:24

Ive been reading this forum alot lately but i still havent been able to find a satisfying answer to the question why cant we replace oil with renewables. (Ive also noticed that the opinions on this vary a lot. Some say we can, some say we cant)


So can we? And if not, then why not?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 11 May 2008, 11:16:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I')ve been reading this forum alot lately but i still havent been able to find a satisfying answer to the question why cant we replace oil with renewables. (Ive also noticed that the opinions on this vary a lot. Some say we can, some say we cant)


So can we? And if not, then why not?


We can't.

It's like comparing a bicycle to a car.

A bicycle is a good tool, but it can't do what a car can do.

It's the energy density of oil that can't be replaced.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Sun 11 May 2008, 11:20:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')o can we? And if not, then why not?


No, we can't replace oil with renewables. Mainly because of the law of diminishing returns. Oil is an energy source. It packs a punch. We use it for a vast array of applications. Especially in transport and agriculture. There isn't another energy source like oil. People talk about hydrogen, but that takes energy to make, as there aren't hydrogen wells waiting around to be tapped. In other words, you need a fossil fuel economy just to make hydrogen in the first place. And you loose net energy in the process of making it, so it's no solution.

Regarding wind, solar etc, they create electricity, but you can't easily transport electricity, or make it available as easy energy for transportation vehicles. Then people talk about hydrogen fuel cells, but again, all of these proposals assume an oil economy to manufacture, and create these energy 'containers'.

In other words, oil is a massively potent source of energy. So far, we've been able to extract it from the ground using less energy than the energy we retrieved. The problem we now face, is that it's taking more and more energy to retrieve what oil remains, and soon it won't even make sense to try and retrieve it, since we'll be expending more energy than we'll get back from what we pump.

That's the trouble with the so called replacements. They take energy to build, generate, maintain and store. All of these things reduce the energy we're ultimately left with, proving them no replacement for our oil economies. The balance sheet doesn't add up. We always end up with less energy than before.

I've just touched on the issue.

For a better description, try Richard Heinburg's good book, The Party is Over. Or Kunstler's The Long Emergency. There are many other books and DVDs that explain it better than I could.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sun 11 May 2008, 12:35:30

I still dont quite get my head around this. Are there any documents that explain this well?

(I hate reading. :oops:)


I watched the end of suburbia but it didnt really explain it at all. Just mentioned it.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sun 11 May 2008, 21:17:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I') still dont quite get my head around this. Are there any documents that explain this well?

(I hate reading. :oops:)


I watched the end of suburbia but it didnt really explain it at all. Just mentioned it.

I have some things on my site that might help: For further reading.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Mon 12 May 2008, 08:12:10

Are there any estimates on how long will it take before pumping the oil takes as much energy as the produced amount?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Mon 12 May 2008, 09:39:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'A')re there any estimates on how long will it take before pumping the oil takes as much energy as the produced amount?


You are asking us to spoon feed you a five gallon jug of information. If you don't like reading, you are not going to be able to cover what you will need to cover to get a good grip on this material.

Do you homework before asking questions in class. Seriously.

To your question, the concept of energy return on energy invested ("EROEI") is one of the keys to understanding peak oil. There is way more to this topic than I could cover in a short post, but here are a couple of things to think about:

1. World oil production figures do not reflect the energy invested to extract the oil. Thus, 85 million barrels of oil produced from deepwater, oil shale, and oil otherwise extracted from the middle of nowhere is going to provide less NET ENERGY than Uncle Jed drilling gushers by shooting holes in the ground in his back yard. In the past 85 million barrels might have reflected 84 million barrels of net energy. Today, it's probably more like 70 million (or something in that neighborhood). The point is that MOVING FORWARD, THE IDENTICAL LEVEL OF PRODUCTION WILL DELIVER A SMALLER AND SMALLER AMOUNT OF NET ENERGY, TO THE POINT THAT ONE DAY 85 MILLION BARRELS A DAY COULD PROVIDE NO NET ENERGY. This aspect of peak oil is kind of a stealth issue that you won't hear about on the news, to the extent that you hear ANYTHING about these topics.

2. Every oil project has a different EROEI. Thus, I don't know of any way a blanket estimate could ever be made of when the EROEI worldwide would be negative. In general, OPEC oil delivers more net energy than non-OPEC oil because OPEC oil has historically been easier to extract.

There are a lot of different opinions on this topic, but everyone agrees (I think) that the net energy provided from oil extraction is decreasing.

Read, read, read, read, read, read. Search EROEI in the forum archives and that will keep you busy for a while.

Good luck.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Mon 12 May 2008, 11:02:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I') still dont quite get my head around this...


Think of it as a milkshake..............
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