[dunewalker]

2nd option, we're on our way.

Recently I wrote a letter-to-the-editor of our local weekly newspaper, in response to a front page article in the previous edition about the plight of local truckers due to the escalating price of diesel fuel. Those interviewed for the article were pretty gloomy-doomy regarding their future prospects. This gave me cover to write my rant, reflecting their doomism rather than tossing mine in out of left field. Here's a copy of my letter (with local place names removed for privacy):

This Is The Real Deal

Dear Editor,

Your article last week about the plight of local truckers was excellent. It was a wake-up call to all of us here, not just truckers. Anyone who has been keeping up on their reading understands that the high fuel prices and declining economy are not just a rough patch in the road. This is the real deal. It's time for adjustments. We need to assess what capabilities we have to sustain ourselves here in the valley, with a lessening dependence upon the outside world. Recently, a third-generation resident was heard to say: "back in my grandfather's day, the only things we imported were coffee and nails". It's time to get the gardens in on a scale not seen since those days. This valley is fortunately one of the few areas still capable of sustaining the present population without assistance from outside. We can do this only when we're ready to recognize that it has to be done. Let's do it.

Dunewalker

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SOS', 'I') voted for the second option ......... However, I reserve the right to change my vote to the first option next month! The article linked below tempted me to vote for the first option:

http://www.energybulletin.net/43111.html

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('wisconsin_cur', '.')..I think when I hear the first sounds of an exporting nation limiting exports in order to keep the price down at home or to build their own Strategic Reserve or something like that, then I will cross over into the moving poop camp.
...

[SOS]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'T')he fan is on its highest setting, the shit is entering the terminal phase of its flight trajectory and we are all sitting in splatter range.

When it hits we will all know about it.

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SOS', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kokoda', 'T')he fan is on its highest setting, the shit is entering the terminal phase of its flight trajectory and we are all sitting in splatter range.

When it hits we will all know about it.

[patience]

A couple things stuck in my head from The Mother Earth News from the 1970's. One was that anyone can predict the future---ingeneral terms, and simply by paying attention to what's happening and using some common sense. The other was in a similiar vein, that one could do his own polls with good accuracy if he used a fair sample of people, not hand-picked, and got some significant number to respond, say 20 to 100.

With those two ideas in mind, I've done my own poll found that well over half of the people I know are hurt by food and energy costs and are doing something to mitigate them in their own life. Most have a dim view of the next year, and over half have prepared a garden.

The work coming into my shop has none of the free spending character of a year ago, but is only necessities, and that is almost all from farmers, business people, and a few homestead types. The repair work is in a more dismal state when it comes in, and the customer looks a bit desperate.

I vote #2, and getting worse, with exceedingly worse not too far off.

[Duende]

patience wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he work coming into my shop has none of the free spending character of a year ago...

[JoeW]

a couple other potential survey answers might have been:
- there is no shit, but there is a fan
- the shit is for real, but there is no fan
- the shit is for real, but the continued supply of power to the fan is very much in question...

[bodigami]

Duende, just to clarify:
the question is about when TSHTF, not if you were covered in Shit.

[Pops]

The realization of SHingTF for most will probably come somewhat after the aromatic Pie-in-th-Face hits their personal economy.

I'm gonna guess that goes for the majority of PO.com members as well.

Like one of my neighbors mentioned this afternoon, "We may not starve but we may not be going to town as often."

I'd suggest if one is feeling a little pressure they should check the 5 rules thread and the assessments and plans threads and come up with the plan that works for you.

If things still seem fine there is alway the open discussion forum.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith those two ideas in mind, I've done my own poll found that well over half of the people I know are hurt by food and energy costs and are doing something to mitigate them in their own life. Most have a dim view of the next year, and over half have prepared a garden.

The work coming into my shop has none of the free spending character of a year ago, but is only necessities, and that is almost all from farmers, business people, and a few homestead types. The repair work is in a more dismal state when it comes in, and the customer looks a bit desperate.

I vote #2, and getting worse, with exceedingly worse not too far off.

[Duende]

zensui wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')uende, just to clarify:
the question is about when TSHTF, not if you were covered in Shit.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Duende', 'B')ut seriously, what constitutes SHingTF? For everyone it must be different. Personally, I would consider it a drastic change in business as usual. All I'm saying is that I haven't seen it yet, that's all.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', '.')..
The work coming into my shop has none of the free spending character of a year ago, but is only necessities, and that is almost all from farmers, business people, and a few homestead types. The repair work is in a more dismal state when it comes in, and the customer looks a bit desperate.

I vote #2, and getting worse, with exceedingly worse not too far off.

[skyemoor]

My perception is not 'did the excrement strike the impeller blades', but 'the slow motion train wreck commenced and most of the people on the planet are in the cars towards the back and still haven't heard the screech of rending metal nor has the shock emanated through the rest of the train to their car yet'. But that's longer to say and doesn't quite roll off the tongue.

So imagine Costner lowered more than halfway into the 'sludge' pond in Waterworld;

[allenwrench]

The 4 responders that think there is no problem. Can you explain your reasoning?

My vote...Almost there, the shit is flying to the fan

[AgentR]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', 'T')he 4 responders that think there is no problem. Can you explain your reasoning?
My vote...Almost there, the shit is flying to the fan

[patience]

Cube,
We do farm repairs mostly, but whatever comes in the door, too. The farmers are okay, but worried now. Average Joe doesn't seem to have any money, nor do those who depend on him, like contractors, loggers, etc. We fix their stuff too. Machine work and welding/fabrication, some sheet metal to order.

edit: Anecdotal stuff from today. I had a load of stone put on the driveway, and the truck driver was talking to a customer. the driver was pretty hostile about the price of fuel, and was convinced that oil business interests are in bed with politicians causing all the grief. No hope of enlightening him, so I didn't try. This guy was pretty hot, and looking for a scapegoat.

[joeltrout]

I think peak oil was "perceived" as being more real 2 years ago than it getting too real today.

We recently hit an all-time high in production in Jan 2008 according to this article on the oildrum.

So no I dont think peak oil is getting too real. I think a lot of other issues are too real and oil prices are just rising. We are a long ways from problems resulting from peak oil.

joeltrout

[Revi]

It certainly is getting nasty out there. Here in Maine things have never been that rosy, so what's the difference?

I am beginning to sense a feeling of quiet desperation lately, though.

I'm cutting wood.

They won't let us pre-buy heating oil yet, so we have no way of planning ahead in that department, but I figure with a cord or two cut and a full tank of oil we can make it through next winter anyway.

We can all stand to lose a few pounds, and are used to eating beans, so we'll be ok until some time next winter anyway.

We can't plan any further ahead than that.

The world will have to end after next winter.

I don't anticipate a flood of refugees into Maine.

It seems like most people want to move out lately, especially after last winter.

It's spring, and it's not so bad right now. I planted my garden.

The fiddleheads should be coming up soon too.

We won't starve right off, anyway.