by seahorse » Fri 02 May 2008, 21:47:33
EE,
You're question as to what is a rational response by an oil company is a good one. Unfortunately, I'm not sure a response can be made by the industry until the industry itself becomes "PO" aware. I say this bc big_rc reiterates what you and Gasmon have both said, which is there is little understanding of the issue even in the industry. For example, BigRC wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')lso I have had some conversations about Peak Oil with pretty high up people and there is some knowledge about it but at the same time things are getting pretty difficult within the industry.
As you point out, the industry is beginning the recognition process (at various conferences etc.)
On a side note, I'm curious as to why there is so little recognition of the issue in the industry? I assume its bc people and companies naturally focus on their own jobs, areas, etc. For example, each employee obviously has a task, areas to work within, and that information may or may not be shared with others. Further, as with any business, companies don't share their "reserves" or other proprietary information with other companies for obvious reasons, and only report what needs to be reported with the SEC for example. This, however, leads to the problem pointed out by Simmons, that there is no international "data base" of info. I understand that's just the natural result of things, but the combination of the above simply means that until there is a problem, there is no recognition of it by anyone, including the industry itself.
I also agree with Big-RC that a company only has a duty to act in the best interest of its shareholders. However, I believe that acting in the best interest of shareholders means the public needs to be educated to the problem, otherwise, Congress may begin taxing the crap out of them at exactly the wrong time, which is not good for the companies, their shareholders, or the country.
But, what is a rational response by a company? I think several things could be done. Here's a list of things that jump out at me:
(1) Standardize terms - its my understanding, and I may be wrong, that various terms for categorizing reserves, resources etc have no real standard definitions, thus, its difficult for anyone to really assess where we are. I would hope the industry would work diligently to standardize terms. Nationally, and I know everyone hates regulation, but I believe that Congress or the SEC should require, to the extent its possible, standardization of terms;
(2) Increased reporting based on standardized terms - we need increased reporting of all resources/reserves to the SEC using standardized terms. In this way, good companies go up in value and the poor companies that have been b.s ing go down in value and get gobbled up. We need money to be flowing to the companies that deserve it;
(3) I would like to see companies, individually and as a group, to publicly acknowledge PO is a serious issue that needs to be understood both in time and scope. I would hope that companies, acting individually or as a concerted group, would follow Simmons and Boone Pickens in bringing this issue to the attention of the public via public news sources as well as to Congress via Congressman Bartlett's PO committee. Congressmen like Bartlett and Senator Ron Paul seem to understand the issue, but they need the support of the various companies to get public attention on the issue;
(4) Begin various commercial advertisements on the issues of the complexity of drilling, how difficult it is to find and actually drill and produce oil, including how oil wells do deplete in time. It would be very easy to have short commercials picking out a few big fiels like the North Sea or even Alaska to show how difficult it is to drill and how they decline over time. People need to be educated. Ker McGee has had a few commercials kind of like this, but nothing that really makes people understand how important this is. Just a few statistic would help, the US in 1970 produced about 9mbd if I remember right? Its not about 1/2 that, thus we have to either find it or import it. We use about 20 mbpd and have to import about half of that. Further, not all oil is the same. People have to understand how difficult and expensive the refinery process is, so they can appreciate why gas is so expensive and won't waste it.
I would hope that the industry as a whole could come up with some commercials that could run nationally. This would really reduce the costs to any individual company, educate Americans, and hopefully get pro-action and not reaction.
Just a few thoughts, I hope others will weigh in as well.