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Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sun 04 May 2008, 09:20:16

So this is my first post on this forum and before anything else i would like to thank you all for this site as it is a great source of information.

However, im still unable to fully understand why people here seem to consider it as "the end of the world as we know it". So if you could answer these simple questions i would apreacite it. I really dont understand any of this stuff very well so keep it as simple as possible.

1) The sudden collapse - Why would the economy suddenly collapse when we reach peak oil instead of slowly weakening in the same pace as oil production declines?

2) Why does it have to be a disaster instead of a great opportunity to fight global warming? When the economy starts to become weaker other sources of energy become more profitable --> we slowly replace all our oil needs with other energy sources.

These questions have probably been answered in this forum but i thought that since these are the questions most peak oil newbies think about one more thread about them shouldnt hurt.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby like_the_dinosaurs » Sun 04 May 2008, 11:21:59

To answer your second question first.
There isn't any real alternatives to oil in respect to how much energy you get from a barrel of oil. Hydrogen, solar, wind etc either just dont cut it or are flawed.

To answer your first question.

It could be a long drawn at process where we have repeated declines with small gains in between but as time progresses it seems more likely it will crash.

But don't shrug this off as another crackpot doomsday prophecy . This is the greatest challenge mankind had faced and so far i'm not jumping in the air with glee over our collective efforts to abate complete disaster.

My advice, read and prepare.
"The elite DO believe they are worshipping and are being directed by demon creatures." ALEX JONES
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 04 May 2008, 11:26:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'S')o this is my first post on this forum and before anything else i would like to thank you all for this site as it is a great source of information.
However, im still unable to fully understand why people here seem to consider it as "the end of the world as we know it". So if you could answer these simple questions i would apreacite it. I really dont understand any of this stuff very well so keep it as simple as possible.

You will spend time profitably reading the archives here. Please spend some time doing that if you are really interested in the peak oil topic.

I will give you my thoughts to get you going, though.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '1')) The sudden collapse - Why would the economy suddenly collapse when we reach peak oil instead of slowly weakening in the same pace as oil production declines?

It's the same idea as why a camel looks to be fine with a big load of straw and then you add one more piece and he collapses. Not all systems deteriorate slowly; many collapse quickly in the same way that a chain will have a catastrophic failure if only one link breaks.

The economy will not necessarily collapse WHEN peak oil is reached, it's just that once you reach the peak and begin down the other side of the production curve, many believe that the conditions will be favorable for a cascading series of economic, political and environmental failures.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '2')) Why does it have to be a disaster instead of a great opportunity to fight global warming? When the economy starts to become weaker other sources of energy become more profitable --> we slowly replace all our oil needs with other energy sources.

When you think in these terms, ask yourself the assumptions on which you are basing your ideas. When you say "other energy sources", think about whether you are saying something like "I know I am a mortal, but according to my religious beliefs, I am actually going to live forever, so the mortal body thing is not a big deal."

The simplest hole to poke in the "other energy sources" argument is that these other energy sources simply deliver a much less efficient source of energy in most cases than fossil fuels. To the extent that economic growth and development is a function of the availability of cheap energy, more expensive and less efficient sources of energy may restrict the ability to generate economic growth in the future, no matter interesting or ingenious the sources of energy are.

Take a step back and ask yourself whether your faith in technology may have an irrational element to it.

Think about this: how could you have exponential economic and population growth in a world of finite resources for more than a short period of time?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hese questions have probably been answered in this forum but i thought that since these are the questions most peak oil newbies think about one more thread about them shouldnt hurt.

It won't hurt, but there are a lot of people just like you who come here wanting to learn more, and it's all already been discussed in great detail, so enjoy.

Here are a few topics to read up on:

EROEI
overshoot and die-off
cargo cults
Jevon's Paradox
cornucopians
zombies
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby roccman » Sun 04 May 2008, 11:29:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'S')o this is my first post on this forum and before anything else i would like to thank you all for this site as it is a great source of information.
However, im still unable to fully understand why people here seem to consider it as "the end of the world as we know it". So if you could answer these simple questions i would apreacite it. I really dont understand any of this stuff very well so keep it as simple as possible.
1) The sudden collapse - Why would the economy suddenly collapse when we reach peak oil instead of slowly weakening in the same pace as oil production declines?
2) Why does it have to be a disaster instead of a great opportunity to fight global warming? When the economy starts to become weaker other sources of energy become more profitable --> we slowly replace all our oil needs with other energy sources.
These questions have probably been answered in this forum but i thought that since these are the questions most peak oil newbies think about one more thread about them shouldnt hurt.

Welcome

Why?

Because we are a particularly rapacious species.

Read everything here:

www.dieoff.com

Then read Catton's Overshoot.

Then come back here and tell us what you learned.

We can then have a meaningful exchange.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby RedStateGreen » Sun 04 May 2008, 11:52:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'S')o this is my first post on this forum and before anything else i would like to thank you all for this site as it is a great source of information.
However, im still unable to fully understand why people here seem to consider it as "the end of the world as we know it". So if you could answer these simple questions i would apreacite it. I really dont understand any of this stuff very well so keep it as simple as possible.
1) The sudden collapse - Why would the economy suddenly collapse when we reach peak oil instead of slowly weakening in the same pace as oil production declines?
2) Why does it have to be a disaster instead of a great opportunity to fight global warming? When the economy starts to become weaker other sources of energy become more profitable --> we slowly replace all our oil needs with other energy sources.
These questions have probably been answered in this forum but i thought that since these are the questions most peak oil newbies think about one more thread about them shouldnt hurt.

Think of it this way:

A) The global economy is based in continual growth; from the corner store to the stock exchanges, if you don't grow, you die.

B) To have continual growth of an economy, you need continually increasing resources to provide the increases in goods and services. Even the maids at the Marriott need more cleaning supplies if more people come through.

C) Everything from the plastic toothbrush you use in the morning to the cotton/polyester sheets you sleep in at night are made from oil.

D) At peak oil, the amount of production will no longer continually increase, by definition. Whether a plateau or a decline happens doesn't matter. "A" through "C" require increasing amounts of oil. Those toothbrushes and sheets don't last forever, and your gas tank needs filling.

Going back to "C" is where you really begin to understand the implications of "D":

Food is grown, packaged, trucked around, marketed, and sold using huge amounts of oil.

Our transportation system is made of oil, from the plastic in our cars to the asphalt under the tires. Gasoline, diesel, jet fuel.

Think about how much is made of plastic and other petroleum derivatives. The bubble gum we pop, the clothes we wear and the Vaseline we use on the baby are derived from petroleum.

Oil's not going away (yet), but if demand keeps increasing but supply can't, what happens is smack dab in the realm of economics. Why the economy might suddenly collapse instead of decline has to do with psychology, governmental incompetence, and the geologic vagaries of oil production, which isn't something anyone has total control over.

My scenario hasn't even touched on the other issues we face as a planet, such as massive overpopulation, depletion of almost every other resource, the credit debacle, pollution, and unstable climates.

Sure we COULD all pull together and fix things on the energy front. But we could have done that thirty years ago, when it would have been much easier, and didn't. I'm not waiting for the government to 'save' me.

Hope that helps clarify things. :)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', '&')quot;Taste the sizzling fury of fajita skillet death you marauding zombie goon!"

First thing to ask: Cui bono?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Hagakure_Leofman » Sun 04 May 2008, 11:56:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', '
')
1) The sudden collapse - Why would the economy suddenly collapse when we reach peak oil instead of slowly weakening in the same pace as oil production declines?

2) Why does it have to be a disaster instead of a great opportunity to fight global warming? When the economy starts to become weaker other sources of energy become more profitable --> we slowly replace all our oil needs with other energy sources.


Welcome to peakoil.com Munqi :)
You've found an interesting corner of the web.

I'll give a brief perspective on the questions you've raised.

1) No one really knows exactly how this is going to play out. Some people believe that since our society is exceedingly complex, disruptions to one of the foundations of modern civilization i.e. petroleum will have such far reaching effects that all of the pillars of our way of live will unravel. As Richard Heinburg recommends in his book The Party is Over, to gain an understanding of how dependent we are on growing petroleum supplies, try visiting a major city, sitting down for a coffee and observe your surroundings. Consider all of the activity around you, and what it's relationship is to cheap available oil. The business, the people, their activities. Then imagine how things would be effective if there was suddenly 10% less oil and gas available to support what you see. The 20% and so on.

The main reason people speculate that it won't be a gentle decent is that demand of oil & gas is ever increasing, and competition heats up every day. As oil production has leveled off, demand still increases (populations increase, more mouths & machines to feed them).

As like_the_dinosaurs has said, there aren't really any alternatives to oil that will provide modern civilisations with a suitable alternative foundation to keep things from collapsing. Hence that common perspective.

2) Perhaps later, people will view the peak of oil production has a critically important moment towards the reduction of an overgrown population which lies as a root cause of climate change. Though I fear otherwise. I believe sadly, that we will abandon our attempts to curtail C02 emissions out of collective necessity to survive, as infrastructure buckles under the weight of oil scarcity. Electricity demand will sky-rocket as people see alternative means of heating their homes, cooking their food etc.

Ultimately, it may end as you suggest. That over time we may compensate for the loss of this amazingly abundant energy source called oil by developing further alternative technologies. What is disturbing however, is how extensive our cultures relate on oil. That perhaps we won't be able to support the research, development and manufacture of anything to replace oil without having oil available to make the transition.

Only time will tell.

These are difficult ideas to entertain.

I've found the Planning for the Future forum particularly useful and inspiring. Once your head is around PO, it's actually quite empowering. You're offered the chance to realize that now is the time for you to take personal responsibility for your basic needs, and those of the people around you. And to plan for a less resource abundant future.

This of course, does not mean a less culturally, spiritually, or socially abundant future. Indeed, these components of a full existence might very well see a renaissance, where currently they are less valued than business, commerce and entertainment.

I hope this helps.
And do enjoy this forum. There are some wonderful and diverse people here :-D
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 04 May 2008, 12:44:14

www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sun 04 May 2008, 13:28:56

Going trough the links you gave at the moment. Theres one thing i would like to know though.

You say that the economy needs continual growth to or else it will die. Why is that?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby roccman » Sun 04 May 2008, 13:32:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'G')oing trough the links you gave at the moment. Theres one thing i would like to know though.

You say that the economy needs continual growth to or else it will die. Why is that?


Like riding a bike.

It stops because the rider runs out of energy...it falls.
"There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sun 04 May 2008, 13:58:22

I haven't gotten to spicing up the peak wiki, but here's a few answers
to some common questions... :-D

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '[')b]I want someone to answer a few things for me...
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic39349-0-asc-30.html

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

That said, regarding a few of your points, we have threads for most
of them but I'll give you a summary.

Is oil price increase affected by the weak dollar?
Yes, it's related but it's not a direct relationship and seems to have
decoupled to some extent.

Link: How much is the price of oil due to the falling dollar

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('peasea', 'A'). Oil against a basket of currencies is higher than you would
expect from plentifull supply , I conclued we have a shortage of oil
from this. You may disagree - lets leave it at that.
This is a good summary.


We are not running out of oil.
Right and peak oil is not about running out of oil. Presently world
production of light sweet crude oil (the good stuff) peaked a couple
years ago. It's still being produced, just not as much as we need.
And by some estimates total world production of all liquids may
have already peaked.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]ASPO calls the peak (2007)
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic39452.html

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Leanan', 'A')nd it's in the rear-view mirror. The May ASPO Newsletter has
moved the peak for all oil from 2010 to 2007.

The PDF version is incomplete, but it has the graphs and such.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The Peak of Light Sweet Crude (Between 2000 - 2004)
http://www.energybulletin.net/8102.html
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/8/23/233714/826

Image
On the positive side, road tar prices are going down... :roll:

Saudi Arabia (or somebody else) can open up their taps?
No.

* Saudi Arabia's production seems to be in decline or maxed out.
Also they have announced that they are no longer planning to
expand drilling so they can save some oil in the ground for their
children.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') told them, 'no, leave it in the ground, with grace from god, our
children need it'," King Abdullah
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic38859.html

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Saudi Arabia - Ghawar In Decline
http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/2007/0 ... ghawar.htm

Saudi Arabia In Decline
http://www.pastpeak.com/archives/2007/0 ... bia_in.htm


* Russia has announced they have reached peak oil and will no
longer be able to produce more then they are currently producing.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ussian oil production has peaked and may never return to current
levels, one of the country’s top energy executives has warned,
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic38668.html

* Most of the oil America uses comes from America. We produce
most of our oil and we consume the most oil. American oil
production peaked around 1970 and has been less every year.
So who is to blame for oil prices? You guessed it, we are.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Replying to "Damn Arabs" emails
http://peakoil.com/fortopic39038.html

Boom!
Image
Boom!
Image
Boom!
Image
Boom!
Image

Big problems, get it?
Image


But what about ANWR?
ANWR is peanuts. At best the area will take 10-20 years to develop
and most estimates suggest if you could suck all the oil out as fast
as the US uses oil, the oil would only last a few months. But hey,
lets pretend that ANWR could supply the US for 5 years, then what?
The implications of this may not immediately click, but give that a
little thought.

Drilling in currently off-limits areas of the US

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'W')e also have untapped resources in Colorado
much like Canada has oil sand. Unless you work for Shell, Tar Sand is the correct term. Do you
realize comparing road tar crud to light sweat crude oil is a really
bad comparison? Using our current systems it takes quite a bit more
energy to produce tar sands then to produce conventional oil. This
means it's expensive, not cheap sweet oil. Regarding tar sands,
I suggest you read up on: EROEI, Environmental requirements
(large amounts of natural gas and water)...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for your stance of another attack on US soil by Iran Which poster believes Iran will attack us? I know we began an
economic war against Iran on March 20th and some people expect
we might expand that to include air strikes. And many posters have
different opinions about Iran, were you under the impression there
was a blanket opinion here that Iran will attack US soil? Because
I've never even heard that before.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'Y')our concern for food prices, while that is justified, I doubt that the
US will succumb to massive food shortages, we will simply stop
exporting food before we let our citizens starve.The US has had shortages in the past, it can happen as it
happened this year. Will we stop exporting food, one of the few
things the US exports? At some point we may, but we will have
to be willing to sacrifice much of our economy to make such a move.
So things will have to get pretty bad before we do that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'A')nd as ethanol becomes less and less of a good idea, you’ll see
corn start coming back into the food marketAbsolutely right. As they say, a broken clock is right at least twice a day.
Ethanol and biofuels will be sacrificed as demand for food becomes
a bigger problem.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', '.')..and with better weather next year the food cost of rice will abate. Have you heard about the drought situation in the southwest or
the new wheat rust problems cropping up in the US?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'S')cientists predict Southwest mega-drought
(Starting now, lasting 90 years...)
Image
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/17967097/
http://groovygreen.com/groove/?p=1240
http://abcnews.go.com/Technology/story?id=3352465

Warmer Earth may slash farm yields
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16042134/

World Wheat Supply Threatened - More Virulent Ug99 confirmed (Jan 18, 2008)
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic35694.html

Trouble in Kansas - wheat rust (4/30/2008)
http://agweb.com/get_article.aspx?pageid=142714

Fertilizer supply problems (supply problem with fertilizers in spring 2008)
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld demand is outstripping supply and farmers are being advised
not only to make sure they have ordered what they need, but to
take delivery and make sure they have it.

"This coming season, the most likely situation is a shortage,” said
Yara’s England and Wales business manager Steven Chisholm.

World demand for grain production for both feed and biofuel was
currently outstripping supply and that was driving the demand for fertilizers.

"All I would say is order it and get it delivered – ownership will
be nine tenths of the law this spring.”Looks good doesn't it! :twisted:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'Y')ou people are hopeless!! We are people who are quoting the latest news and scientific
studies on world oil supplies. If you think we are hopeless, then
perhaps your problem is you simply haven't been able to accept
that there are real problems in the world (US included).
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sun 04 May 2008, 14:01:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'Y')ou say that the economy needs continual growth to or else it will die. Why is that?
Here's a good read on collapse. It's about how things played out in
the Soviet Union and how events may play out here.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Closing the 'Collapse Gap'
http://www.energybulletin.net/23259.html

The subject of economic collapse...

And this next one certainly has me intrigued. From what I've seen
and read, it seems that there is a fair chance that the U.S. economy
will collapse sometime within the foreseeable future. It also would
seem that we won't be particularly well-prepared for it. As things
stand, the U.S. economy is poised to perform something like a
disappearing act. And so I am eager to put my observations of the
Soviet collapse to good use.

And this article is about Cuba's collapse.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]How Cuba Survived Peak Oil
http://www.powerofcommunity.org/cm/index.php

When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1990, Cuba's economy went
into a tailspin. With imports of oil cut by more than half – and food
by 80 percent – people were desperate. This film tells of the
hardships and struggles as well as the community and creativity of
the Cuban people during this difficult time. Cubans share how they
transitioned from a highly mechanized, industrial agricultural system
to one using organic methods of farming and local, urban gardens.
Last edited by steam_cannon on Sun 04 May 2008, 14:40:12, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Armageddon » Sun 04 May 2008, 14:17:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'G')oing trough the links you gave at the moment. Theres one thing i would like to know though.

You say that the economy needs continual growth to or else it will die. Why is that?



The only way money enters into the economy is through new loans. Think of it this way, if everybody pays back their current loans, the bankers would own most of the money, therefor no new money would enter into the economy. So, you need new loans to be created for money to stay in circulation. New loans are created from growth, such as housing, commercial real estate, cars, etc. Without growth, the economy collapses. Without a growing energy source, growth is impossible.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sun 04 May 2008, 16:04:40

So would you say that IF (big if i know) our goverments came together to solve this then it would be solved? Or are we screwed no matter what they do?
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 04 May 2008, 16:25:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'S')o would you say that IF (big if i know) our goverments came together to solve this then it would be solved? Or are we screwed no matter what they do?


Governments do a fair to poor job of solving easy problems.

Peak oil is not an easy problem.

If you ever hear of a government solution to the peak oil problem, assume it will either have no effect or make the problem worse.

The most fundamental driver of the peak oil problem is human nature and its drive to conquer, consume and control. Since government can never be anything other than a distorted reflection of human nature (the ruling elite in particular), governments will probably be just identifying the problem in a focused manner about 30 to 50 years after serious mitigation steps would have needed to start.

If wordwide mitigation steps had been commenced in about 1975, we might be in pretty good shape today. Instead, we got off to a promising start in reaction to the price shocks of the 1970s, but then we got stupid for about 20 years starting in the early 1980s.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sun 04 May 2008, 16:36:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'S')o would you say that IF (big if i know) our goverments came together
to solve this then it would be solved? Or are we screwed no matter
what they do?
You mean like how governments have come together on Climate Change? :lol:

Seriously though, third world countries are presently experiencing food
shortages and rioting. America doesn't have extra food or money and
is cutting food aid. Americans don't care. Countries that are already
suffering are doing what they can, which isn't much. As we slide down
the production curve, we may not be able to do much either. We can
relocalize (more people get into farming) and abandon unworkable
living arrangements (New Orleans, Suburbs).

We can embrace the fact that there are going to be big changes.
Civilization traditionally lived within it's means, we found lots of oil,
used it to produce and distribute food. We destroyed soil and used
up much of natures bounty. Now the oil is running down and things
are going to change. Renewables may help soften the blow, but
they haven't saved or lifted up any country so far.

There is a lot that can be done, but not many things can keep America
going the way it's been.

Energy needed to run America as we know it
Image

Lifetime of a child
Image

World population
Image

Image Image

It's going to be an interesting ride, make sure you get a good seat! [smilie=new_popcornsmiley.gif]
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 04 May 2008, 16:55:29

Oh man!

I NEVER get tired of seeing the long term oil production chart sitting next to the long term population growth chart.

I get a doomer buzz just thinking about that.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby jedinvest » Sun 04 May 2008, 17:41:50

Maybe, when humans stop behaving like yeast we will stand half a chance. But as many have pointed out, that opportunity passed us long ago.

So be calm, practice survival skills and maybe get off the thread mill.
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby Munqi » Sun 04 May 2008, 18:12:53

Ive always thought that things would eventually go wrong (water depletion, population growth etc) but never realised that we were so close.

I dont really know what to believe right now... The first time i heard the words peak oil was 5 days ago and now im already planning what kind of a gun im going to buy o.O This is crazy...
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 04 May 2008, 18:25:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Munqi', 'I')ve always thought that things would eventually go wrong (water depletion, population growth etc) but never realised that we were so close.

I dont really know what to believe right now... The first time i heard the words peak oil was 5 days ago and now im already planning what kind of a gun im going to buy o.O This is crazy...


Don't do that.

There are lots of opinions on what will happen.

Don't take anyone's word for anything. Research it yourself and make up your own mind.

When people first learn about it they often have a sense that they need to do something right now, usually in the form of spending a lot of money on survival gear.

Like I said, don't do that right now.

Study the subject until you feel a calm sense of the whole matter, and then take appropriate action. Anything you do right now I can almost guarantee you will regret in a few months.

I've been where you're at.
:)
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Re: Peak oil for newbies

Unread postby DrBang » Sun 04 May 2008, 19:17:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')unqi wrote:
Ive always thought that things would eventually go wrong (water depletion, population growth etc) but never realised that we were so close.

I dont really know what to believe right now... The first time i heard the words peak oil was 5 days ago and now im already planning what kind of a gun im going to buy o.O This is crazy...



Don't do that.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are lots of opinions on what will happen.

Don't take anyone's word for anything. Research it yourself and make up your own mind.

When people first learn about it they often have a sense that they need to do something right now, usually in the form of spending a lot of money on survival gear.

Like I said, don't do that right now.

Study the subject until you feel a calm sense of the whole matter, and then take appropriate action. Anything you do right now I can almost guarantee you will regret in a few months.

I've been where you're at.


This is excellent advice. Sit back for a moment and get your head around this. Any panic now will cost you money, time and friendships with the people around you.

1 Understand the fundamentals of this network of problems

2 Understand how they interact over time

3 Understand exactly what you need to live, NOT want. Study historical situations like the Great Depression or the Irish potato famine to understand how fragile our civilization really is. Take heart though, it is good strong people who got through that. They used their hearts and minds to do so not their possessions.

4 As objectively as possible, understand and even try to predict how people around you at all scales will react and try to meet these issues. From your mother to the local city council to the leader of your country.

5 Get educated in how the international geopolitics will flow around these issues and how this will affect you personally.

6 With all this, try and develop 10 scenarios of how this will pan out. Understand fully (as you can) the fundamental dynamic drivers of each scenario.

7 Take a good hard look at the people around you and decide in your very bones who is important to you. Who will be a liability in a time of crisis. AND WHO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HELP YOU.

This will take time for you to digest. Any preparations you make before this point will be flawed. If you can't help yourself, don't do anything you can't undo easily,(like get divorced and move to Alaska).

TRY REALLY HARD NOT TO FREAK OUT THOSE AROUND YOU

When you reach this point develop a flexible multiphase plan that will help you deal with the scenarios in Step 6 above. Think in three time frames.

a) What would I need to do to get by in a 72hr window if there was a sudden crisis?

b) What could I do to make things easier in the residence where I live now? For example if you get most of your food from takeout each week, set your self up to cook your own food from the basic ingredients. To do this equip your kitchen to handle this and learn to cook on basic foods. In WWII food shortages were everywhere and everyone had to make do with what we would now call inedible supplies. If the power was cutoff, what could you do to keep going: buy a gas BBQ an cook off that. Buy clothes to deal with the weather without heating (etc).

My list or areas were: books of self sufficiency, tools to fix/make things, tools to garden with, etc

c) If I was in a position to move away from my current place of residence, where would I go to make things easy for me? To answer this question look at Step 6 above at the local scale.

The key here is to be mentally flexible. You can read all the posts in Planning For The Future but it won't help you if you don't have the right frame of mind. Also be careful how you introduce these life changing ideas to the people around you. Remember they will find it frightening. Personally I find this is an issue that can only be understood by someone who reaches conclusions on their own. Being told this stuff tends to produce a defensive reaction that is not necessarily rational.

Good Luck Mate

Dr Bang
For every question , there is a lie. For every lie, there is a truth. For every truth, there is a way. And for every way, there is a time. This is the time.
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