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PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE Oil : Gold Thread (merged)

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 02 May 2008, 11:14:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', 'Y')ou guys don't listen to anything. I have been trying to tell you that this was going to happen for a while and giving you the reasons why and still you won't, can't seem to listen. Go ahead, buy as much gold as you can since you seem to want to lose everything anyway.
Who the hell are you and why should I put my money on what you say? I have my own brain and can make my own decisions thank you very much! You're entitled to your own opinions which you are free to express.......but this is NOT the place to give people advice what investments to buy or sell. If you want to do that, go open up your own hedge fund company.

good luck!


Hurt your feelings have I? That was not my intention. My point is that I have been trying to tell the gold bulls for quite a while what could happen and nobody listened. I made this string of posts because I want people to pay attention to more than those that agree with them. Believe it or not, I care if I see people heading for a cliff and think I can do anything about it. If I tell you what I plan on doing what is that to you? Maybe you will listen and maybe you won't.

Maybe I am a little emphatic because I am a little tired of all of the gold bull sentiment against what I have said. Maybe I am tired of having to re-explain why I say what I say every single time because nobody wants to either check out any of my old posts when they encounter something that ought to alarm them or cruise the net in order to see if anybody else thinks like I do. Anybody can win a one sided argument. I have paid plenty of attention to the likes of you. Do you like one sided arguments or are you ready to pay attention (listening doesn't have to mean you agree) to the likes of me?
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby eastbay » Fri 02 May 2008, 11:32:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'c')ube's how to get rich plan

You "only" need to know 4 things:
1) what to buy
2) when to buy it
3) what to sell
4) when to sell it
:roll:


Funny Cube. People can forget the basics. I have no intention of getting rich, but my 'safety net' is even simpler than that:

1. Buy energy service and NATGAS stocks and sit on them indefinitely. It's worked quite well so far.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 02 May 2008, 12:11:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'j')oeltrout why do you think that?


I think if the Fed cuts anymore it will only be 1 and done. Inflation has to be creeping up on them and the only way to stop that is to raise interest rates which I believe we will see later this year.

The Fed initially was cutting because they hoped to spur housing. That didn't happen but we are at a point now that when the Fed cuts, interest rates to potential homebuyers does not fall. It remains the same and in some cases rises.

We have also seen the stock market rallying fom its lows when Bear Stern was taken over. We saw the S&P 500 index rise 8% in less than a month. I don't believe it will continue at that pace but it is slowly and surely going up.

I could be dead wrong but I think the Fed is going to start rising interest rates later this year. Which as you know, strengthens the dollar which I believe was beat down far too much.

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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 02 May 2008, 12:37:09

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'S')PG, invest the same modest amount in gold and/or silver each month. Just like a savings program, or a dividend-reinvestment plan with stocks. That way you "dollar-cost average."


Dollar cost averaging works pretty well if you're on a fixed income. I'm self employed. Some months are great and I have spare cash. Other months...nothing. Just happened that I had a couple of good months at the peak of the metals pricing.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')or me, the bottom line is always that having something is better than having nothing. With the dollar, you risk having nothing. Gold will always be worth something.

Yeah. That's something I keep trying to remind myself. The major reason to own metals is because you want metals, not because they are necessarily going to translate into more or less dollars at a certain time. I agree that over the long term, the value of the dollar is going to go to zero. That in my mind is at least a five year time scale from now. My biggest goal for the next 1-2 years is to scrape together enough cash to put a down payment on a piece of land. trying to figure out where to put your savings with all this volatility is pretty difficult. Things are sky high one day and in the gutter the next. It's really hard to not be shaken and to clearly see what's happening.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 02 May 2008, 13:25:34

Good luck in your land quest, SPG. I never knew a more deserving landowner than you would be.

You can do it.

The key to amassing wealth is consistent, monthly saving (even a small amount) coupled with reducing one's living expenses to a minimum. I was determined to master that art if I did nothing else.

Get-rich-quick, buying-and-selling schemes are mostly for losers. Yah, there are exceptions.

Anyway, if you're self-employed you've already won half the battle to freedom.

Hell is taking orders from someone else.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 02 May 2008, 13:32:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', '
')
Anyway, if you're self-employed you've already won half the battle to freedom.

Hell is taking orders from someone else.


I actually love working for a company which pays me a steady salary. It allows me to budget for items and I never have to worry about money. I know how much I am going to make every 2 weeks until next year when pay raises come into play.

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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 02 May 2008, 13:37:35

I never FULLY knew how much I hated taking orders until I retired, Joel.

Throughout my career I focused on getting farther and farther away from the order givers. On marginalizing their control over me.

Anyway, everyone is different, and every job is different.

I agree about the virtues of a steady salary and benefits. They dovetail beautifully with wealth building along the lines I discussed earlier.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Fri 02 May 2008, 15:27:51

Sell! Sell! Sell!

[look down at watch]

Oh lunchtime!

[return to the trading floor exactly 30 minutes later]

Buy! Buy! Buy!
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby joeltrout » Fri 02 May 2008, 16:01:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', 'S')ell! Sell! Sell!

[look down at watch]

Oh lunchtime!

[return to the trading floor exactly 30 minutes later]

Buy! Buy! Buy!


I would be a billionaire if it were only as simple as that. :)

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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby smallpoxgirl » Fri 02 May 2008, 16:33:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'G')ood luck in your land quest, SPG. I never knew a more deserving landowner than you would be.


Awww! Thanks. :oops:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he key to amassing wealth is consistent, monthly saving (even a small amount) coupled with reducing one's living expenses to a minimum. I was determined to master that art if I did nothing else.

Anyway, if you're self-employed you've already won half the battle to freedom.

Hell is taking orders from someone else.


Well...I agree in principle, but I think the key for me amassing wealth may be a bit different. I have a practice in Montana that is loosing money by the bucket load. I have been flying to Seattle every week to have enough money coming in to make ends meet. I ended up with a net income of $18K last year. I am in the process of moving to Seattle so I can work more (for other people), and reducing my exposure to the Montana clinic. With some effort I should be able to move into a more typical physician income for this year.

General Westmoreland had a three part plan for winning in Vietnam:
1. Stop loosing.
2. Get ready to win.
3. Win.

My plan for amassing wealth looks sort of similar. Right now I'm working on steps 1 and 2. Stop loosing money and get ready to make money. I'm looking for an apartment in Seattle, putting out resumes, and pulling back from my involvement in Montana.

Realistically I can make more money by giving up my Don Quiotesque attachment to the Montana practice and doing more work than I can through any sort of investment scheme.
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Sifting through the ashes every day
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby cube » Fri 02 May 2008, 20:08:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '.')..
Hurt your feelings have I? That was not my intention. My point is that I have been trying to tell the gold bulls for quite a while what could happen and nobody listened. I made this string of posts because I want people to pay attention to more than those that agree with them. Believe it or not, I care if I see people heading for a cliff and think I can do anything about it. If I tell you what I plan on doing what is that to you? Maybe you will listen and maybe you won't.

Maybe I am a little emphatic because I am a little tired of all of the gold bull sentiment against what I have said. Maybe I am tired of having to re-explain why I say what I say every single time because nobody wants to either check out any of my old posts when they encounter something that ought to alarm them or cruise the net in order to see if anybody else thinks like I do. Anybody can win a one sided argument. I have paid plenty of attention to the likes of you. Do you like one sided arguments or are you ready to pay attention (listening doesn't have to mean you agree) to the likes of me?
...
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Brainy Smurf

Thanks for the advice buddy!
but it's okay I think I'll survive without your help.

If you know so much about investing why don't you amass extreme wealth and buy that 15,000 sq ft mansion.
You can show how much you "care" about us by inviting us over to a party sometime. :roll:

BTW I still think gold is in a long term bull market. You may recall after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 there was a massive sell of in commodities almost across the board just like right now. Oil went from $80 down to $50. All the "mainstream" news people loudly declare the end to the commodity bull market....but we all know what happened after that. Prices skyrocketed afterwards: gold, oil, wheat, rice, etc... All markets go through boom and bust cycles and yes commodities will go bust in the future, but not now. I believe we still have at least 5 more years before this commodity bull market ends. When gold hits $3,000 and oil is $300 then I'll start to get scarred and say folks maybe we're at the top?
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby mattduke » Fri 02 May 2008, 21:00:00

A brief respite on the road to poverty. Take advantage of it.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby Cashmere » Fri 02 May 2008, 22:37:15

Agreed. A very brief respite.

Did we get 3 days before the <b>seemingly inexorable</b> climb continued.

If you are looking to preserve value over the next 10 years, and you assume the Govt won't seize your bullion, then I'd say metals are a great place to park it.

Would never park it there looking for a profit.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Fri 02 May 2008, 22:40:13

:(

Image

Why did I buy at $17.50?!? Sigh... When's my next paycheck?
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 02 May 2008, 22:40:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('smallpoxgirl', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'G')ood luck in your land quest, SPG. I never knew a more deserving landowner than you would be.


Awww! Thanks. :oops:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he key to amassing wealth is consistent, monthly saving (even a small amount) coupled with reducing one's living expenses to a minimum. I was determined to master that art if I did nothing else.

Anyway, if you're self-employed you've already won half the battle to freedom.

Hell is taking orders from someone else.


Well...I agree in principle, but I think the key for me amassing wealth may be a bit different. I have a practice in Montana that is loosing money by the bucket load. I have been flying to Seattle every week to have enough money coming in to make ends meet. I ended up with a net income of $18K last year. I am in the process of moving to Seattle so I can work more (for other people), and reducing my exposure to the Montana clinic. With some effort I should be able to move into a more typical physician income for this year.

General Westmoreland had a three part plan for winning in Vietnam:
1. Stop losing.
2. Get ready to win.
3. Win.

My plan for amassing wealth looks sort of similar. Right now I'm working on steps 1 and 2. Stop losing money and get ready to make money. I'm looking for an apartment in Seattle, putting out resumes, and pulling back from my involvement in Montana.

Realistically I can make more money by giving up my Don Quiotesque attachment to the Montana practice and doing more work than I can through any sort of investment scheme.


Makes sense. I'd do whatever was necessary, short of breaking the law, to amass enough funds to buy or build a landed country place. That's what I did. It was one of my primary goals in life.

Of course, once you reach your goal(s), you're always faced with the question, What's next?

At my age, that question gets scarier.

Meanwhile, back at the oil ranch, prices staged quite a comeback today.
Last edited by Heineken on Fri 02 May 2008, 22:42:13, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby 3aidlillahi » Fri 02 May 2008, 22:41:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat's next?

At my age...


At your age, your next step should be leaving your land to me in your will. :-D
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby Heineken » Fri 02 May 2008, 22:43:51

OK, PM me and I'll have my lawyer draw up the papers immediately.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 04 May 2008, 00:25:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '.')..
Hurt your feelings have I? That was not my intention. My point is that I have been trying to tell the gold bulls for quite a while what could happen and nobody listened. I made this string of posts because I want people to pay attention to more than those that agree with them. Believe it or not, I care if I see people heading for a cliff and think I can do anything about it. If I tell you what I plan on doing what is that to you? Maybe you will listen and maybe you won't.

Maybe I am a little emphatic because I am a little tired of all of the gold bull sentiment against what I have said. Maybe I am tired of having to re-explain why I say what I say every single time because nobody wants to either check out any of my old posts when they encounter something that ought to alarm them or cruise the net in order to see if anybody else thinks like I do. Anybody can win a one sided argument. I have paid plenty of attention to the likes of you. Do you like one sided arguments or are you ready to pay attention (listening doesn't have to mean you agree) to the likes of me?
...
Do you know who you remind me of?
Brainy Smurf

Thanks for the advice buddy!
but it's okay I think I'll survive without your help.

If you know so much about investing why don't you amass extreme wealth and buy that 15,000 sq ft mansion.
You can show how much you "care" about us by inviting us over to a party sometime. :roll:

BTW I still think gold is in a long term bull market. You may recall after Hurricane Katrina in 2005 there was a massive sell of in commodities almost across the board just like right now. Oil went from $80 down to $50. All the "mainstream" news people loudly declare the end to the commodity bull market....but we all know what happened after that. Prices skyrocketed afterwards: gold, oil, wheat, rice, etc... All markets go through boom and bust cycles and yes commodities will go bust in the future, but not now. I believe we still have at least 5 more years before this commodity bull market ends. When gold hits $3,000 and oil is $300 then I'll start to get scarred and say folks maybe we're at the top?


Cube,

I want to be mad at you but that just defeats the purpose. I wouldn't be true to myself if I let everybody that disagreed with me wrankle me so. I am more concerned with how it is that someone can make a post on a site like this stating to watch out for gold's fall and then come back and not so much say, 'I told you so', but let's talk about what comes next and not get any real discussion, rather a bunch of, 'if I am going to fall I am going to do it in style and maybe take you with me rhetoric'. People like you don't seem to want to hear anything but what you can understand as common knowledge or knowledge that is arrived at by mutual understanding. I am sorry that a rogue like me upsets your applecart. No, I don't arrive at what I say by means of listening to what others say. Yes, I do want to hold it to the scrutiny which a site like this brings. You are way out of line with your childish assertions. Sure I might be a little guilty of gloating, but I did that with respect. How about a little respect from you? Are you capable of it or do you judge yourself?
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby cube » Sun 04 May 2008, 01:12:42

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('evilgenius', '
')Cube,

I want to be mad at you but that just defeats the purpose. I wouldn't be true to myself if I let everybody that disagreed with me wrankle me so. I am more concerned with how it is that someone can make a post on a site like this stating to watch out for gold's fall and then come back and not so much say, 'I told you so', but let's talk about what comes next and not get any real discussion, rather a bunch of, 'if I am going to fall I am going to do it in style and maybe take you with me rhetoric'. People like you don't seem to want to hear anything but what you can understand as common knowledge or knowledge that is arrived at by mutual understanding. I am sorry that a rogue like me upsets your applecart. No, I don't arrive at what I say by means of listening to what others say. Yes, I do want to hold it to the scrutiny which a site like this brings. You are way out of line with your childish assertions. Sure I might be a little guilty of gloating, but I did that with respect. How about a little respect from you? Are you capable of it or do you judge yourself?

Are you not taking me seriously?

I am NOT joking.

I still think we're in a commodity bull market and yes I have my money where my mouth is! The recent drop is a "correction" not an end. The price will jump back up and skyrocket past the previous highs. Just wait till next year or 2 years from now. You're going to regret that you didn't buy gold, oil, and wheat at these ridiculously low prices. Like I said before we are not at the top yet. Don't get me wrong I'm not saying I know how to call the shots. I don't know what's going to happen tomorrow morning or next month. Maybe the price will drop by another 5% after I submit this post. It's anybody's guess. But I do know that we are in a long term bull market.

And why do you keep on complaining about people not wanting to hear you. I'm replying to your topic right now.
//
Just because someone doesn't agree with you doesn't mean they didn't hear what you had to say.
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Re: Oil and gold prices plunging

Unread postby pedalling_faster » Sun 04 May 2008, 09:48:41

Damit ! i can't find it. oh well.

there's an article with a brief interview with Warren Buffett out this weekend.

he says he thinks the worst of the credit crisis is over, for Wall Street.

he also describes the Bear Stearns scenario, where he got a call from someone and they needed someone with $75 billion cash, to take on Bear Stearns. he only had $35-40 billion (in cash), so he had to pass.

i don't entirely buy it, but if the worse of the August 2007-April 2008 credit crisis _IS_ over for Wall Street, then ... it's wierd. it's like they're singing "happy days are here again" and dancing in the streets.

i don't know how much of what Buffett says is real, and how much is "trying to reassure the markets."
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