[phaster]

was dring around today listening to the radio when I happened to listen to a segemnt about "Mexican Oil Reform Threatens Changes to U.S. Energy Supply" and thought people here might find it interesting....

http://www.kpbs.org/radio/these_days;id=11535

basically here are the high lights of the show, pemex the national oil company of mexico is "post peak" in their largest oil field. The oil revenues account for 40% of the mexican government income, followed by remittances from mexicans working in the USA in the, and the third largest income stream for mexic is tourism. Basically the trends for all those income streams are all downward.

Anyway the general vibe I get on this board is there is lots off doom and gloom, run of the hills, government and big business interests are bad, and taxes should be banned because (according to various you-tube videos there is no law that states taxes should be paid). Is that about right?

Anyway just thought I'd make the basic observation "united we stand, divided we fall" and that goes for not only citizens of the USA, undocumented mexicans, and basically every man, woman and child on this planet....

Might I suggest, that while there are idiots in political office, greedy CEO's, and overly complicated tax laws here in the USA, the alternative of trying to produce everything your self in some doomer's utopia where you and your small tribe just had a plot of land to farm, a few guns to protect your self, and no government or taxes to worry about, and you were free of all that "liberal" crap thinking and people thought about "god" and people read the bible each and every day... life in this kinda society would be a lot more difficult!

The past couple years, I've been kinda really facinated with the field of economics, cause its kinda between the two fields I took up at university (political science and physics), basically these two fields of study were on opposite ends of the spectrum one pure BS and the other pretty much pure logic and math.

Anyway if ya think the key is to solve peak, is to move away to the hills and farm for your own food, protect yourself with a gun and read the bible (instead of the koran), then I suggest ya move to Afghanistan for a trial run to see how live would be post peak oil.... cause that's basically the best analog I can thing of as a doomer's paradise (pardon the pun). This BTW is the "divided we fall" scenario, that I think will happen if people give up on governemnt and don't want to pay taxes...

There is a cost for the infrastructure, and I was just kinda curious if any of people reading this post in the "I think taxes are illegeal" camp, thought about how much benefit they get.

Which reminds me, also saw a news segemnt this evening on "the economic stimilious checks" being sent out, and wonder how many in the same "I think taxes are illegeal" camp, are getting government checks, and cashing them... Would't that be hypercritical????? Being a fiscal conservative, I personally think economic stimilious checks, McCain's gas tax holiday, and the deocratic plan to stop putting oil into the strategetic reserve are all bad ideas that will make the problems much worst in the long run!!!!!!

Anyway the "united we stand" response to problems like peak oil will be difficult because it will require people to sacrifice and require people to think!

Getting back to my tangent on economics, if ya get a chance read about adam smith's thesis on "Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations"

http://www.econlib.org/LIBRARY/Smith/smWN.html

I thought it was pretty interesting stuff! When the main stream realize that a consumpion based economy is unsustainable, and the mainstream start thinking like investors instead of consumers, then central governments that tax its citizens and big business will be able to solutions to problems like climate change and peak oil!

[Heineken]

Then we will fall.

People are more divided than at any time in human history.

[Cashmere]

Agreed, then we fall.

The only thing that could "save" us is another FF op and an all out war against the world.

I'd rather not be saved.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'P')eople are more divided than at any time in human history.

[IanC]

We'll probably be united, as a nation, by a demogogue, around the flag, and for the "American Way of Life". This will be horrible, but people will buy into it because they will be scared, desperate, and will do anything not to be poor and hungry.

On a local level, I think smaller communities, or tribes of people will unite in new and exciting ways to help eachother. For the price of some beer and the sweat needed to bike to someone's house, we'll get together, play music, watch eachother's kids play, tell stories, practice yoga, and clean eachother's guns. Remember that whatever happens nationally, you and I live locally and have ultimate control over our interactions with others.

-Ian
Tuning his Fiddle.

[Heineken]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('aflurry', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'P')eople are more divided than at any time in human history.

[Plantagenet]

America is strong precisely because it is divided.

Problems are difficult...issues are complex. No one person and no political party gets them all right all the time.

It is only by being divided that we have the opportunity to examine different approaches to problems, and get to hear different perspectives on complicated issues. If we weren't divided, we couldn't vote in the other side and demand a change in course when the government makes mistakes.

[Pops]

If your house burns down, blows or floats away and your neighbors don't come to help because you are of a different denomination or political party you don't need a different country just a local with different neighbors.

[Pops]

{oops, wrong button}

The hills might be a good plan for some folks but I'm thinking that most of us will need neighbors, merchants and tradesmen for many years to come.


We are divided mostly by our fat wallets today...

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '
')The hills might be a good plan for some folks but I'm thinking that most of us will need neighbors, merchants and tradesmen for many years to come.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaster', 'A')nyway the general vibe I get on this board is there is lots off doom and gloom, run of the hills, government and big business interests are bad, and taxes should be banned because (according to various you-tube videos there is no law that states taxes should be paid). Is that about right?

[phaster]

Might I suggest that this country does much better when there is a strong national will, backed up by industry and educational institutions that pours lots of resources into engineering and basic science research.

Consider WW II, if this nation was divided, then this country would have never become a superpower. At that time a significant amount of resources went into war time production, and big science played an important role in the war effort. For example if it were not for geeks and interest in mathmatics, then the first digital computers would not have been made to crack the german enigma codes, basic science also made possible the bomb when enabled the war with japan to end much sooner than was possible without such a device, an off shoot of the atomic program was also atomic power (which in the future will play a bigger role, because it produces power at a much lower carbon foot print than say coal).

Another national example of a united national will could be seen in the triumph of NASA and the moon landings.

Right now I suggest that the american public is pretty much fat, dumb and (un)happy and unable to have an intellegent discourse on topics that really matter in the long run such as "peak oil," "global warming," and "the interrelationship of the global economy" because of social interest refuse to learn the basic cause and effect mechanisms, because doing so would erode preconceived beliefs.












$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '[')b]America is strong precisely because it is divided.

Problems are difficult...issues are complex. No one person and no political party gets them all right all the time.

It is only by being divided that we have the opportunity to examine different approaches to problems, and get to hear different perspectives on complicated issues. If we weren't divided, we couldn't vote in the other side and demand a change in course when the government makes mistakes.

[Plantagenet]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaster', 'M')ight I suggest that this country does much better when there is a strong national will, backed up by industry and educational institutions that pours lots of resources into engineering and basic science research.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('phaster', '.')..
Consider WW II, if this nation was divided, then this country would have never become a superpower. At that time a significant amount of resources went into war time production, and big science played an important role in the war effort. For example if it were not for geeks and interest in mathmatics, then the first digital computers would not have been made to crack the german enigma codes, basic science also made possible the bomb when enabled the war with japan to end much sooner than was possible without such a device, an off shoot of the atomic program was also atomic power (which in the future will play a bigger role, because it produces power at a much lower carbon foot print than say coal).
...

[BigTex]

To properly unite this great country, we need someone to shoot at.

Sooner or later, people are going to wake up and realize that we don't have anyone to shoot at.

Our enemies have turned into ideas--Islamic extremism and peak oil to name a couple.

You can't shoot at ideas.

And that's going to be a problem.

Without an enemy to rally against, I'm afraid there will be more division than ever, ultimately culminating in the belief that all of our problems are actually the result of other factions within our own society.

And that's when things start to get ugly.

In a resource rich world, wars are great for economic growth. In a resource constrained world, I fear that military operations against the freedom haters are going to aggravate problems created by resource bottlenecks. Thus, rather than stimulating economic growth, there will be more economic contraction as productive deployments of capital don't occur because of the needs of the military.

The fact that the U.S. has been at war for the last seven years and the stock market has basically just drifted sideways is not a good sign.

With the government and the consumer spending every dollar they can borrow to finance consumption at home and military adventures all over the world, one would expect a little more economic vitality than a stock market that has gone nowhere in seven years.

When you factor in dollar devaluation during that period, the stock market has actually probably lost 20-30% of its value since the war on terror commenced.

Perfect storm is brewing and it consists of the following factors converging:

Islamic extremism

Dollar devaluation

Unfunded liabilities of the U.S. government

Globalization taking too much of U.S. manufacturing infrastructure offshore

Retirement of Baby Boomers creating long term downward pressure on U.S. stock markets, combined with lost productivity as they exit the workforce

Inevitable global pandemic and/or biological warfare

Political instability in China, Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, Nigeria, Mexico, Koreas, India, Turkey, and probably a lot of other places

Famine

Drought

Crop disease

Climate change

......hmmm......

......feels like I'm forgetting something.....

OH YEAH.

Peak Oil

***

We've just gotten to a place where there are too many people overall, too many people moving into high consumption lifestyles, too much belief in systems that MUST fail, too little credit to incredibly favorable economic conditions in the last 200 years, and WAY too much faith in technology as the creator of future fantasies.

You ever see someone run into a tree when they're aren't looking?

That's the picture I have of the whole world.