PeakOil is You
I want someone to answer a few things for me...
Re: I want someone to answer a few things for me...
by Twilight » Thu 01 May 2008, 17:31:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'Y')ou people are hopeless!!
Only some. Let's not generalise.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'G')lobal demand for oil will abate as economies cool. The US has seen a year over year decrease in oil and gasoline demand, and as the US economy cools the European and Chinese export markets will also start to receede, thus reducing the overall demand.
I posted a prediction at the end of last year, anticipating a strong recessionary cooling of demand and oil prices this year. There are still 8 months to go, but it already appears likely that I was wrong on the timing at least. Although I warned against betting against sentiment and the common sense expected relationship between recession and energy, I have since learned not to count on them either.
Global demand will not uniformly decline anyway. There are cash-rich countries in the world which will continue to increase their energy consumption because they can, whether or not there is a recession in the US and Europe. The countries of the ME Gulf are a well-documented example. The construction boom over there is absolutely vast, with soaring power demand and resulting impact on net exports of oil and gas going forward. This is termed the "Export Land Effect" and is one reason why reports of available production capacity in that quarter are heavily discounted here. I do have a numerical prediction of my own floating about here concerning Kuwait, which I will publicly verify next year, whether it turns out to be correct or not.
There are also structural limits to oil demand decline, such as district heating in Russia, drought impact on hydropower in Australia and South America, cutting of gas exports from Argentina to Chile, nuclear power plant outages in Japan, Africa's (excluding South Africa) inability to run anything else for power generation, and so on. So economics can and do temporarily go out of the window where matters of national interest or emergency are concerned. This sort of thing forms a large part of day-to-day discussion in the Current Energy News forum.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'I')t’s already started, most economists agree that the cost of oil ($112/b) has nothing to do with supply/demand economics.
Most economists do an even worse job of predicting oil prices than we do. We have kept track of the sucker-punching we have given them in that department over the last few years. As is often remarked here, when a group of anonymous internet people can beat the analysts, you can only adjust your respect accordingly. Therefore, think carefully before backing up your views with those of economists - it can actually weaken your argument.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'I') think you’re being over dramatic when you say "many people around the world will find themselves unable to buy the basic food and heating they require to sustain life." whom are you refering to? Europeans; doubt it because the euro is strong..$112 cost per barrel is like 60 euro to them, Chinese? nope, the chinese government subsudieses the cost of oil, Russians have their own internal supply..besides the poor nations, who will get help from the IMF and the world bank, there won’t be much.
The point repeatedly made here is there are many more poor than international aid can assist once the shit hits the fan. There are billions of poor in the world. They cannot hide behind the governments of China, India, Bangladesh, etc forever. State subsidies are not a magic bullet, they are not a sustainable solution. The fact that a country subsidises an individually unaffordable essential commodity does not automatically solve the problem. If it did, everyone would be doing it. And food aid is hard to distribute once a state fails. Even where it is distributed, what does it achieve but delay the inevitable correction of population to carrying capacity? The problem we see is this - we are having to feed today the children of those whom we fed last time. And next time, we will have to feed the children of those we feed now. This is a treadmill that only goes faster as the world population increases.
We have had the Green Revolution. I read an opinion piece in a British newspaper last weekend saying it is now time for a GM revolution, the time is right and the technology is ripe. And to this I said, "OK, and what then?"
We ask these questions.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', '(')Stuff about Iran)
Don't assume everyone here expects an attack on Iran. There is no editorial policy to that effect here. What you have is a lot of people who keep saying it is going to happen any day now, and a lot of people who cannot be bothered arguing any more. Speaking for myself, I think it is not worth any keyboard time from me any more, along with the PPT and much else.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Divest', 'T')ry not to be over dramatic in the future, you’re no better then the media when you promote off the wall ideas that serve no propose other then to scare people; the so called "food shortage" here in the US..you can’t buy more then 80 lbs of rice / visit to sams club now? its hardly a crisis worth mentioning, 80lbs of rice is a lot of rice.
What is dramatic? There is a wide range of responses here, from arm-waving prophesy to dry academic discussion. You need to sample a lot more content here than it appears you have.
The other thing you need to remember is the subject matter you have willingly chosen to discuss. You have chosen the subject of oil. Oil is sensationalist. Such is the value our culture places upon it. It defies any attempt at a rational approach by any commentator.
Last edited by Twilight on Thu 01 May 2008, 17:36:28, edited 1 time in total.
On the positive side, road tar prices are going down... 
