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NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby IanC » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 13:13:31

I really appreciated this article. I think it's important for the MSM to display the facts for all of us to read without getting too concerned about "sounding alarms" and laying blame. There are lots of other websites for that.

The information was stark and anyone who can reason even slightly deeper past the facts into how this reality will affect their lives, should be concerned, despondent, and maybe even frantic.

The part about Cantarell was particularly disturbing to me.

As the developing world increases demand, it just means more people will be disappointed and even vengeful when their dreams of a "richer" future are dashed on the rocks of reality. There will be major political instability for decades.

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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 13:14:06

How are you defining affluence BT?
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 13:41:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'H')ow are you defining affluence BT?


The only sure way to reduce the number of children a couple has is to increase the per capita income. Increasing income means increasing consumption.
:)
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 13:41:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kjmclark', '
')But we never needed the suburbs.


You're telling me cities can grow infinitely large in a fixed area without the need for sprawl?
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 13:44:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', '[')b]Seriously.

If this is not the proverbial shot over the bow, I don't know what is.


Not as long as hairs continue to be split:

“It’s a crunch,” said J. Robinson West, chairman of PFC Energy, an energy consulting firm in Washington. “The world is not running out of oil, but rather it’s running out of oil production capacity.”
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 13:45:15

I love the last line in the article:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut the International Energy Agency estimates that current investments will be insufficient to replace declining oil production. The energy agency said it would take $5.4 trillion by 2030 to raise global output. Otherwise, it warned that a crisis before 2015 involving “an abrupt run-up in prices” could not be ruled out.


Like we haven't already seen an abrupt run-up in prices.

It should have said "a continuation of the abrupt run-ups in prices we have seen the last few years."
:)
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby Ludi » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 13:55:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')The only sure way to reduce the number of children a couple has is to increase the per capita income. Increasing income means increasing consumption.


education and empowerment of women


"When women are
given the resources to make informed, vol-
untary decisions about the number and
spacing of their children, they usually
choose to have smaller families."


population connection
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 14:06:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')The only sure way to reduce the number of children a couple has is to increase the per capita income. Increasing income means increasing consumption.


The only sure way to reduce the number of children a couple has is forced sterilization.
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 14:13:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')The only sure way to reduce the number of children a couple has is to increase the per capita income. Increasing income means increasing consumption.


The only sure way to reduce the number of children a couple has is forced sterilization.


We could never do something so barbaric.
:)
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 14:24:18

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'H')ow are you defining affluence BT?


The only sure way to reduce the number of children a couple has is to increase the per capita income. Increasing income means increasing consumption.
Fer sure, but consumption of what? Europeans have the same standard of living that we do, and do this with a quarter to a third of the per capita energy consumption. I imagine that if oil prices went to $200/bbl, this difference would only increase.

Conspicuous consumption has been encouraged to such an extent in this country, and to a lesser extent in other places, that the problems we have tend to be from the direct and indirect economic drain of the externalities associated with them. People spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in order to reap the benefits of decreased health, increased labor, more pollution, and in some cases greater travel times, all thanks to the current instantiation of private transportation. If we all drive smaller vehicles more efficiently, we reduce the amount we have to work for transportation, traffic, the impact on our health, and local/global pollution similarly. Problem being that we also do the same, if not more, to profits associated with what we are consuming.
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby mos6507 » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 14:52:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')We could never do something so barbaric.


No, we'll keep our morality intact and leave the dirty work to the invisible hand.
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby Twilight » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 14:59:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'M')y European friends, look at our map. It is the distance that hurts us along with a low density of population. In small towns we have no mass transit. Not many can bike or hike twenty miles one way.

If that is true, shouldn't your cars have twice the fuel efficiency of ours, not half?
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby BigTex » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 16:28:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cloud9', 'M')y European friends, look at our map. It is the distance that hurts us along with a low density of population. In small towns we have no mass transit. Not many can bike or hike twenty miles one way.

If that is true, shouldn't your cars have twice the fuel efficiency of ours, not half?


Fuel price, not distance between locations, has driven our vehicle design.

Not smart, but that's how it happened.
:)
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby Revi » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 18:02:07

Our cars are mostly going to be extinct in a couple of years. The small ones that seat 5 will all be full of people getting places, while the gigantors will all end up as plow trucks or motorized wheelbarrows for a while before we call up the car crushers.

Dummies love those SUV's. Got a hemi?
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby yesplease » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 18:35:33

Older ones are already worth their weight in scrap. A hundred for the cat, another fifty for the Al stuff, maybe sell some good parts off for another hundred or so, and scrap the 1.5-2.5 tons left for a couple hundred.
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby shortonoil » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 18:35:48

whereagles said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he masses want to mug the oil companies CEOs to force lower gasoline prices. That's at least what I see in a local automobile forum...


What are they going to do as demand destruction sets in heavy, and prices still are skyrocketing?

How long will it be before they get the hint that its the end of the oil age!
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 19:27:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'N')o one will get the significance of the article, or very few anyway.

This is America! We don't do limits.

The REAL isssue that most people are probably several realizations from understanding is that we are on a doom trajectory no matter what happens:

1. If we get population growth under control, we are going to have rising levels of affluence aggravating resource constraints.

2. If we don't get population growth under control, we are going to aggravate resource constraints.

Either way, the REAL problem is not too little oil, it's too many people wanting to live too well off of a finite production capacity.

THAT'S the way people should be looking at it.

As usual, though, people are talking about how to facilitate more growth, rather than talking about how to reduce the need for more growth.


Yeah, what you said. Either way many/most human mortals are screwed. It will make for interesting evening news and great cocktail talk.

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I try to think of it as living in the age of the dino die off, only we are the dinos.
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby yeahbut » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 20:33:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]whereagles said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he masses want to mug the oil companies CEOs to force lower gasoline prices. That's at least what I see in a local automobile forum...


What are they going to do as demand destruction sets in heavy, and prices still are skyrocketing?

How long will it be before they get the hint that its the end of the oil age!


Quite a while yet, I reckon. That was the NYT after all, and only one article at that. Fox news, and most people, will be blaming those damn Arabs, those greedy oil co's and the stupid greenies with their drilling restrictions for a long time yet, IMO. Maybe that's for the best, they sure aren't gonna like the truth...
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 20:59:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'T')his is really scary. Why isn't anyone doing anything? I think this article shows that most people are where we were 6 or 7 years ago. They are still in the shock and denial phase.The NYTimes must have just realized what's going on. Heaven help us when the masses figure out what's happening, or when the denial turns to anger, the next step in the process.
I'm not sure if you actually want the idiots in charge to do anything. Most of the proposals I hear coming out of their mouths will only make things worse. The 3 most common responses I hear are ethanol, token renewable gestures, or the blame game(damn big oil, damn arabs, damn ___). Nobody in charge is talking about serious mitigation proposals. I'm glad at least the IEA is telling it like it is. Now if only we could get our politicians on the same page...
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Re: NYT: Age of Unprecedented Scarcity

Unread postby patience » Wed 30 Apr 2008, 09:17:35

It all reminds me of an old Gary Larsen cartoon, of an auditorium full of dinosaurs listening to one speaking, "The bad news is, the climate is changing threatening us with extinction, and we all have a brain the size of a walnut." Or something like that, I forget the text exactly. Clear picture, though.

We will follow our hormone-progammed lust to reproduce unto the end.
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