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Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

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Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 10:32:01

A very good, detailed article,

The Economist

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'D')iabetes is a useful metaphor for the Gulf's present problems. The region's economies are struggling to absorb petrodollars, accumulating like glucose in the bloodstream. The risk they face is the economic equivalent of renal failure: inflation, a hollowing-out of the non-oil sector, and a young, growing workforce in chronic need of outside labour to supplement it.

The six nations of the GCC, which also includes Qatar and Oman, earned $381 billion from their exports of oil in 2007 and another $26 billion from gas, according to the Institute of International Finance (IIF). If the oil price remains at about $100 a barrel, they will reap a cumulative windfall of almost $9 trillion by 2020, reckons the McKinsey Global Institute: a vast number relative to the size of the GCC economies, which had a combined GDP of $800 billion in 2007.

Not all these riches are ingested, of course. The Gulf added $215 billion to its stock of foreign assets in 2007, the IIF calculates. This hoard is divided between the region's central banks, its sovereign-wealth funds and its wealthy sovereigns. It added up to $1.8 trillion by the end of last year, by the IIF's estimates, and more like $2.4 trillion, according to Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations and Rachel Ziemba of RGE Monitor.


Image Image



$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')bu Dhabi is experimenting with a more interesting future. In February ground was broken on the Masdar Institute of Science and Technology, the first step in an initiative to foster renewable-energy technologies, from conception to manufacture. The initiative will be based in a small eco-city, which will invite its citizens to economise on energy and escape from their cars.

The ground-breaking ceremony was powered by 24 solar panels of various designs, each competing for the bid to serve the city. In the site office the electricity meter turns backwards, an early example of Masdar's ambition to contribute electricity to the national grid beyond the power it needs to run itself. In a country dedicated to driving and drilling, Masdar is bold, perhaps quixotic. It is an attempt not so much to diversify the economy as to invert it. Is it a folly? The beauty of Abu Dhabi is that it has the money to make it work, and the money not to worry too much if it fails.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby dissident » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 12:00:26

The Economist is a monetarist rag. It's one note tune about oil producers "drowning" in oil revenues is hilarious given that it does not make a squeak about the borrow and spend US economy. The Gulf economies are actually growing which reflects in the increased domestic demand for fossil fuels. The Economist wishes they did not grow and instead siphoned all of their revenues back to the USA and other consumer nations. Heaven forbid they might have inflation from high growth rates. Everybody knows inflation is much more important than real income growth. LOL.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby mkwin » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 16:24:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dissident', 'T')he Economist is a monetarist rag. It's one note tune about oil producers "drowning" in oil revenues is hilarious given that it does not make a squeak about the borrow and spend US economy. .


The economist has been writing about the US housing market and credit problems for years now.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby scienceteacher » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 21:26:10

Here's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-w ... ver-there/
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 21:30:18

And with that desert heat and lack of humidity it will be the greatest ruins ever. Imagine how future generations will try to put it all together. It will look like it was the center of civilization.

I guess maybe it is. :(

Of course most of that won't get built but enough has been built already to leave an impression.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby Homesteader » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 21:41:49

What are they supposed to do with all their money? Not build infrastructure? At least they aren't building suburbs and automotive plants! :lol:
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sat 26 Apr 2008, 21:43:45

I can't imagine what the air conditioning bill for all of this unsustainable development will be.

Do they plan on adding a dozen nuclear power plants as well?

If not, what exactly is going to stop these 50 story greenhouses from cooking the inhabitants?

What about the water bills? How many public fountains and swimming pools need to be filled with desalinated ocean water?

I saw at the bottom of the page that they want to build a space port. A SPACE PORT?

WTF ARE THEY GOING TO DO WITH A SPACE PORT... :cry:

The architects of these projects need to be smacked over the head with the cold, hard crowbar of reality.

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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby Johnston » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 00:19:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') can't imagine what the air conditioning bill for all of this unsustainable development will be.

Do they plan on adding a dozen nuclear power plants as well?

If not, what exactly is going to stop these 50 story greenhouses from cooking the inhabitants?

What about the water bills? How many public fountains and swimming pools need to be filled with desalinated ocean water?

I saw at the bottom of the page that they want to build a space port. A SPACE PORT?

WTF ARE THEY GOING TO DO WITH A SPACE PORT... :cry:

The architects of these projects need to be smacked over the head with the cold, hard crowbar of reality.


And all of this has to be supported by people flying into the country.

How is this going to work when the cost of aviation becomes unaffordable?

Jet fuel prices are already having a big impact, and this is only the beginning.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 01:07:47

In theory, they plan on catering only to the high end market.

But the high end market is shrinking...

How many Bear Stearns fund managers are taking a trip to Dubai this year?
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby cube » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 01:33:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are more construction workers in Dubai than there are actual citizens.

bubble economy? :roll:
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby mkwin » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 05:44:17

well they have awesome CSP and general solar resources, which I am sure would power their air conditioning and water plants at a reasonable cost.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 12:22:13

A rather fetching example of the export land model in action there.

However the inflationary pressures and social unrest are not a joke. They will have to spend alot of money on keeping food prices down to stop social unrest in there populations. It will be an insane treadmill they will be on.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 16:44:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scienceteacher', 'H')ere's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-w ... ver-there/


Anyone know which one of those buildings is the Tower of Babel?
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 17:45:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scienceteacher', 'H')ere's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-w ... ver-there/


Anyone know which one of those buildings is the Tower of Babel?


Hahahaha.

I think it's the one that reaches nearly a kilometer into the air.

I wonder how long it would take to climb up all of those stairs.

Climbing to the top could become a new Olympic event.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 18:54:52

Irony of ironies I do believe the Bin Ladens are heavily involved in the construction of them.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 19:09:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('scienceteacher', 'H')ere's where those dollars are going. Some unbeleivable photos:

http://www.tutztutz.com/2008/02/dubai-w ... ver-there/


Anyone know which one of those buildings is the Tower of Babel?


Hahahaha.

I think it's the one that reaches nearly a kilometer into the air.

I wonder how long it would take to climb up all of those stairs.

Climbing to the top could become a new Olympic event.


At least it's not too hot there.

It would really suck if something like that was in location with a hot climate.

Talk about being useless post-PO.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 19:22:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') can't imagine what the air conditioning bill for all of this unsustainable development will be.

Do they plan on adding a dozen nuclear power plants as well?

If not, what exactly is going to stop these 50 story greenhouses from cooking the inhabitants?

What about the water bills? How many public fountains and swimming pools need to be filled with desalinated ocean water?


You don't need to desalinate pool and fountain water, you filter sea water, use it in the pool, then take the overflow from the pool and use it to feed the fountains. Then take the overflow from the fountains and dump it back in a seawater drain line to keep from building the salinity of the fountain too high. The only fresh water you need is a few shower heads to let the public rinse the salt off their skin after they go swimming, and that water can flow into the pool to make up for evaporation.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby outcast » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 21:41:30

At least Dubai has had the foresight to do SOMETHING to diversify their economy away from oil, unlike their neighbors.
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Re: Gulf Economies: Clouds on the Horizen

Unread postby Tyler_JC » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 21:59:02

Fair enough, Tanada.

I'm just thinking about the water waste of Las Vegas where thousands of gallons of potable water evaporate out of mega-fountains in front of mega-casinos.

Regardless, those new buildings (and the people who will live and work in them) in Dubai will consume a lot of water. Also, the landscaping isn't just cactus. I see plenty of golf courses under construction in those photos and no one is going to golf on 18 holes of sand traps.

I supposed they could "plant" astroturf...
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