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A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

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A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 18:32:52

A simple question with not so simple answers.

I'm in a debate on another board where the consensus in that Big Oil is dry-f@#%king us and the US dollar is in the crapper, causing the price to rise.

The discussion forum I refer to has thousands of active participants and though there are a few there who are obviously very PO aware, the vast majority think PO is a Big Oil hoax to create artificial scarcity to drive up prices.

We get bits and pieces of the reasons oil prices are high here and there so I thought it would be good to create a thread which lists and discusses the different factors that are contributing to the run-up on oil and gas prices. Links and excerpts from credible sources are welcomed and encouraged.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby jlw61 » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 20:17:52

Fact, big oil controls about 6% of the available oil.

Fact, China and India are using more and more oil. Faster than the oil supply is growing.

Gov Data

EIA Link


And a good time line of political and consumption events.

The producers to be bitching about are the countries who have nationalized their fields (and playing political games) and OPEC.

The consumers to bitch about are China, India and the good ol' USA.

And the short-sighted policies of the last several presidents

Finally, yeah, tell them to bitch out the oil companies for not giving the oil away at cost.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby Pops » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 20:25:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'A') Simple Question...

The simple answer is that most of us are still buying at those prices.

Quit buying if you want the price to go down.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 20:26:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '
')And the short-sighted policies of the last several presidents



Great post jlw61. But save some bitchin for Congress---they are the ones who write the laws and spend our money and they are the ones who have failed to invest in nuclear, ANWR, solar, hydrogen, trains, light rail, etc. etc.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby vision-master » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 20:29:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '
')And the short-sighted policies of the last several presidents



Great post jlw61. But save some bitchin for Congress---they are the ones who write the laws and spend our money and they are the ones who have failed to invest in nuclear, ANWR, solar, hydrogen, trains, light rail, etc. etc.


The Lefty Dems did it, right? :razz:
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby pup55 » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 20:30:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')ost of us are still buying at those prices.


I have to agree with this one. Fuel price goes up by 70 cents, consumption about even from last year.

Also, the chinese millionaires hate to walk
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 20:45:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')ost of us are still buying at those prices.


I have to agree with this one. Fuel price goes up by 70 cents, consumption about even from last year.

Also, the chinese millionaires hate to walk


Its not just Chinese millionaires. Did you see the news about the new car in India---the "Tata Nano?"

It costs $2000---the car was designed to be as cheap as possible to help the one billion Indians buy cars and get out there on the road.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby Ainan » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 21:37:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'm')ost of us are still buying at those prices.


I have to agree with this one. Fuel price goes up by 70 cents, consumption about even from last year.

Also, the chinese millionaires hate to walk


Its not just Chinese millionaires. Did you see the news about the new car in India---the "Tata Nano?"

It costs $2000---the car was designed to be as cheap as possible to help the one billion Indians buy cars and get out there on the road.


What about the millions of miles of roads India and China will be building? Peak or no peak, thats a hell load of oil right there.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby Denny » Sun 27 Apr 2008, 23:21:46

Simply put, as long as we in the world are consuming more petroleum than we are finding, the price can only go up.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby bodigami » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 01:06:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '(')...)
Its not just Chinese millionaires. Did you see the news about the new car in India---the "Tata Nano?"

It costs $2000---the car was designed to be as cheap as possible to help the one billion Indians buy cars and get out there on the road.


What about the millions of miles of roads India and China will be building? Peak or no peak, thats a hell load of oil right there.


Why on this website we don't talk about asphalt? There's alternatives like concrete or cement, and they will be even more economical than asphalt in the future. But to produce them we have to burn coal. It's always the fossil fuels... not just oil, but coal and natural gas.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby s0cks » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 07:00:41

This isn't prison planet forums is it? Those guys are hooked on the WHOLE world being a conspiracy. I get the whole NWO idea, and I actually believe, in the most part, that US leadership is a controlled affair. I also believe in the erosion of personal liberties.

But, when they spout crap like PO and GW is a hoax, oh, and all planes that leave a long contrails are spraying us with chemicals, it gets beyond a joke.

Basically, these people want to live the "American Dream" and no-one, not even government, should be allowed to get in their way. GW is a hoax, because then they'd have to stop driving SUV's. And PO is a hoax for the exact same reason! Once, when listening to Alex's show, a caller suggested that PO and GW cannot be mutually exclusive. One cancels out the other apparently. And of course, this was endorsed by sir Alex.

I tried posting several articles on peak oil, and global warming. I think, best case, my post wasn't deleted for 3 days! Infact I saw a like minded individual posting PO facts. The entire thread was then "moderated" so that all the arguments for PO were removed, leaving a completely anti-PO thread.

Anyway. Even if this is the same forum or not, these kind of people won't listen. They are no more open minded than most of the general public.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby PeakingAroundtheCorner » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 13:39:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('s0cks', 'T')his isn't prison planet forums is it? Those guys are hooked on the WHOLE world being a conspiracy. I get the whole NWO idea, and I actually believe, in the most part, that US leadership is a controlled affair. I also believe in the erosion of personal liberties.

But, when they spout crap like PO and GW is a hoax, oh, and all planes that leave a long contrails are spraying us with chemicals, it gets beyond a joke.

Basically, these people want to live the "American Dream" and no-one, not even government, should be allowed to get in their way. GW is a hoax, because then they'd have to stop driving SUV's. And PO is a hoax for the exact same reason! Once, when listening to Alex's show, a caller suggested that PO and GW cannot be mutually exclusive. One cancels out the other apparently. And of course, this was endorsed by sir Alex.

I tried posting several articles on peak oil, and global warming. I think, best case, my post wasn't deleted for 3 days! Infact I saw a like minded individual posting PO facts. The entire thread was then "moderated" so that all the arguments for PO were removed, leaving a completely anti-PO thread.

Anyway. Even if this is the same forum or not, these kind of people won't listen. They are no more open minded than most of the general public.


Not PrisonPlanet forums. I've actually never been to that board. I'm referring to Democratic Underground.

"Basically, these people want to live the "American Dream" and no-one, not even government, should be allowed to get in their way. GW is a hoax, because then they'd have to stop driving SUV's. And PO is a hoax for the exact same reason!"

Describes most DUers to a T.
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby gnm » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 13:50:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', 'W')hy on this website we don't talk about asphalt? There's alternatives like concrete or cement, and they will be even more economical than asphalt in the future. But to produce them we have to burn coal. It's always the fossil fuels... not just oil, but coal and natural gas.


Concrete is a magnitude more expensive to mine/crack/deploy than asphalt. Its unlikely that it will ever be significantly cheaper than asphalt due to the internalized costs of producing concrete.

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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby allenwrench » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 15:20:53

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PeakingAroundtheCorner', 'A') simple question with not so simple answers.

I'm in a debate on another board where the consensus in that Big Oil is dry-f@#%king us and the US dollar is in the crapper, causing the price to rise.

The discussion forum I refer to has thousands of active participants and though there are a few there who are obviously very PO aware, the vast majority think PO is a Big Oil hoax to create artificial scarcity to drive up prices.

We get bits and pieces of the reasons oil prices are high here and there so I thought it would be good to create a thread which lists and discusses the different factors that are contributing to the run-up on oil and gas prices. Links and excerpts from credible sources are welcomed and encouraged.




Personally, I am not happy about PO, but I accept it as our future. I would much rather like to keep sucking down the crude, running my jet ski, dirt bikes, RV and not have to worry about gas rationing and fuel costs to go skiing, kayaking and mountain biking.

The top 3 users of crude are the US, China and Japan.

They consume almost 12 billion barrels of crude a year ( 11,987,330,000 barrels) .

Collectively the world uses 30 billion barrels of oil a year (31,015,410,000)

http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_o ... onsumption

If the PO skeptics think the supply of fossil fuel is limitless and we can keep on burning billions upon billions of barrels a year of crude forever, then they are sadly mistaken.

The fact that 'we have to estimate' reserves or useful life of anything says that the item in question does not have an infinite supply or life span.

No doubt some of the increase in crude is due to greed, speculation and hype. And, it may all be true that what we have been told about peak oil is in fact a hoax.

Same as the skeptics that claim global warming is a hoax.

It may all be a conspiracy, just a cruel trick on the consumer to line the pockets of industry with more money...only time will settle this debate

http://www.prisonplanet.com/archives/peak_oil/index.htm

http://www.conspiracyplanet.com/channel ... entid=2097

http://aftermathnews.wordpress.com/2007 ... -peak-oil/

http://www.energybulletin.net/4466.html

But I always tell the proponents saying peak oil is a conspiracy and think that we have an unlimited amount of oil, natural gas, coal, uranium...actions speak louder than words.

We can look at Hubbert's prediction of the USA's peak.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

He was exactly right.

We can look at global oil production and see what the general trend is.

Look at the UK and other countries like the US that had been energy exporters in their heyday. Now they are all energy importers.

See:

http://www.oilcrashmovie.com/

We can look at the trend in drilling to see how deep we have to go to find oil. How many big finds are being made?

We can look at the quality of crude being produced.

Is it light sweet crude or high sulfur, heavy, hard to refine crude?

The light sweet is just that 'light' and is on the surface of the oil pool. Whereas the less desirable heavy sulfated crude is on the bottom of the pool. Does the phrase hitting the bottom the barrel mean anything to you?

Lately we have been putting much of our hope in the tar sands of Canada.

When we have to get the oil out of the sand and shale it sounds like we are hitting the bottom of the barrel again. Even talk about getting our gas from refining bitumen coal.

Now, some people say we are saving the light sweet crude for national defense and using the foreign oil and tar sands first. I don't know, I have no inside information about that claim.

We get about 15% of our natural gas from Canada. That 15% amounts to 50% of the natural gas Canada produces. The US sucks down more energy than any other country...no one can come close to us.

Our demands for natural gas are on the rise, just as our demands are for all fossil fuels. Once demand outstrips production we are headed over Hubert's peak in any number of areas besides crude. We can see peak production issues in natural gas, uranium, food or water, just as we will see with crude oil.

It is an easy task to see how much oil is produced in the world. But finding the 'exact peak date' for world oil production is hard to pinpoint. (see peak oil section)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crude_oil

For one thing, some countries production are erratic and they are not transparent with their real production and discovery data.

Also oil production is not an exact science and still requires a little luck. We may find a lucky hit down the road that brings in a gusher to distort some of the figures.

No one knows the exact peak date for world oil production, but we do know that time will come in the not so distant future. But finding the peak is not hard problem once we can look back on it by a few years....but we need some time to do it...again, only time will settle this debate.

"If the public does think briefly about future oil supplies, the question usually asked is, "How long will oil last?" This is the wrong question. Oil will be extracted in some insignificant quantity perhaps 200 years from now. The critical question is: When does the peak of world oil production occur?" ~ Richard C. Duncan

Check out:

Twilight in the Desert: the coming Saudi oil shock and the world economy
by Simmons, Matthew R.

It is a well written book examining 12 of the key Saudi oil fields and the exaggerated claims of remaining crude reserves of Saudi Arabia.

Also see:

http://www.worldoil.com/INFOCENTER/STAT ... production

http://hubbert.mines.edu/

http://www.mnforsustain.org/duncan_and_ ... The%20Peak
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 17:42:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('allenwrench', 'T')he US sucks down more energy than any other country...no one can come close to us.


Not true.

Actually China is now about equal to the US in energy consumption and has already passed the US in CO2 production. China is growing so rapidly that they will add an amount equivalent to the whole of the United States in energy consumption and CO2 production in another 7-8 years (i.e. China will be using twice the energy of the US by 2015).
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby jlw61 » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 17:45:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '
')And the short-sighted policies of the last several presidents



Great post jlw61. But save some bitchin for Congress---they are the ones who write the laws and spend our money and they are the ones who have failed to invest in nuclear, ANWR, solar, hydrogen, trains, light rail, etc. etc.


The Lefty Dems did it, right? :razz:


Vision Master, go lay down. Once again you fail to grasp basic english in that the short-sighted policies of the last several presidents was blamed. The last several are, in reverse order:

George "It's good ta be da king" Bush - Republican
Bill "the philanderer" Clinton - Democrat
George "I'm a team player" Bush - Republican
Ronald "The enemy of evil and immorality" Reagan - Republican
Jimmy "I'm too truthful and naive to have this job" Carter - Democrat
Gerald "I'm clumsy and stupid" Ford - Republican

Further, the Republicans have held at least one house of congress for much of the last six presidencies.


Plantagenet, as usual you make a salient point that I should have included. I always appreciate it when someone pokes me in the ribs with the facts, it keeps me on my toes. You are absolutely correct that congress is as much (if not more) to blame than the policies of the past several presidents.

Unfortunately, the ultimate fault lies with the sheeple who keep voting for these criminals.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 18:06:49

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('vision-master', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '
')And the short-sighted policies of the last several presidents



Great post jlw61. But save some bitchin for Congress---they are the ones who write the laws and spend our money and they are the ones who have failed to invest in nuclear, ANWR, solar, hydrogen, trains, light rail, etc. etc.


The Lefty Dems did it, right? :razz:


Vision Master, go lay down. Once again you fail to grasp basic english in that the short-sighted policies of the last several presidents was blamed. The last several are, in reverse order:

George "It's good ta be da king" Bush - Republican
Bill "the philanderer" Clinton - Democrat
George "I'm a team player" Bush - Republican
Ronald "The enemy of evil and immorality" Reagan - Republican
Jimmy "I'm too truthful and naive to have this job" Carter - Democrat
Gerald "I'm clumsy and stupid" Ford - Republican

Further, the Republicans have held at least one house of congress for much of the last six presidencies.


Plantagenet, as usual you make a salient point that I should have included. I always appreciate it when someone pokes me in the ribs with the facts, it keeps me on my toes. You are absolutely correct that congress is as much (if not more) to blame than the policies of the past several presidents.

Unfortunately, the ultimate fault lies with the sheeple who keep voting for these criminals.


You make an excellent point (and I laughed at your thumbnail descriptions of our mangy recent presidents) jlw61. :)
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Re: A Simple Question: Why are oil and gas prices so high?

Unread postby jlw61 » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 18:33:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Plantagenet', 'Y')ou are making excellent points, and managing to make good jokes at the same time, jlw61. :)


I find humor is a much better slap in the face than calling a person a Nazi or shill. Further, it tends to give credence to my post and provides a moment's respite to the world-weary spectator.

While I know you understand these things, my dear Royal-Blood, I add these comments to help those who may be looking for ways to respond to the tiresome and inane commentary of the feather-brains who troll these forums.
When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
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