[JBoulder]

Food shortages causing riots. Political threats of holding back arms for oil. Airlines losing billions because of fuel costs. Trucking companies protesting. Local food movements rising in popularity. Housing and economy in a severe recession. Oil approaching $120 and gas is on average $3.50 a gallon.

Are all these indicators that the "Long Emergency" has begun? My point being is is this a temporary trough, and gas will go back down during an economic recovery period in a year or two and the true Long Emergency is many years away.

Or is this truly the beginning? Curious to hear your opinions.

[Leanan]

Did you see this article by Sharon Astyk?

http://www.energybulletin.net/43111.html

She argues that the fast crash vs. slow grind question has been resolved. We're now in a fast crash.

[pup55]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')ruly the beginning

[dhfenton]

I have to agree with pup55, what we're seeing now is primarily the result of stupidity, not peak oil. The U. S. dollar has taken a huge hit as a result of the U. S. housing industry troubles. Thus the price of oil and food appears to be going off the charts. This "crisis" is born of greed and stupidity of those in the credit and housing industries. Lots of folks looking to get rich quick, usually by dumping risky investments and loans in someone else's lap. When that little pyramid scheme came tumbling down, those holding the property and loans lost their shirts. When the investors start losing, everyone pays. They pay for the perception of economic weakness, not necessarily any real economic weakness. I believe we'll see a period of adjustment, and then some recovery. As the dollar regains some of its value, more oil can be purchased per dollar, and the price of oil will seem to go down.

I really haven't seen any behavioral changes in the way people drive, or much else for that matter. The U.S. still has some of the cheapest oil in the world, and all the crying really doesn't reflect what's really going on. The car still gets used just as much, and the tank gets filled just as often.

[Pops]

Welcome JB.

Always the optimist, I'm thinkin the next year or two is just an appetizer for folks in the rich world.

Bumpy plateaus have bumps after all.

Pup and Leanan are both more knowledgeable than me but I think we still have a lot of fat to burn, lots of demand to destruct and lots of options to turn to yet.

The long emergency started a while ago and though the very best time to prepare might be past, any today is better than some vauge tomorrow to start planning and preparing.

As usual, I recommend the Five Rules thread in the Planing For The Future forum.

[sittinguy]

I haven't read the long emergency yet,,, Is it worth reading?

[kokoda]

The financial crisis that has hit the US housing market is a red herring. That was driven by greed and stupidity.

There is an underlying oil crisis that has much more serious implications.

As oil prices go up everything else goes up with it.

The price of fertiliser has doubled in the last couple of years. Not only has this impacted on food prices but it now makes food production in some third world nations problematical ... and this problem won't go away. Like oil prices, fertiliser prices will never significantly drop back in price.

[DantesPeak]

Welcome.

I agree with pup55 and kokoda.

We haven't seen hardly anything yet, but what's coming is going to hit our economy like a tsunami. I am fairly convinced we will see some type of energy product shortages within one year. But that's only for openers. When we have permanent disruptions to supplies in about two years, things will become chaotic. It will probably take a year or two for the effects to exceed the worst parts of the 1970s energy problems.

[efarmer]

I agree with Pops that this is the training wheels season but
that it is going to penetrate the public consciousness by
economic impact and make a whole lot more people PO
aware. I have had many folks in my town talking about
how the "people on TV" say everything is fine but seeing
the direct impact on their accustomed lifestyle telling them
it definitely is not. They are looking around for better info.

Remember when you became PO aware and were in the
digging for better information and cross checking yourself
to be sure you weren't just spooked?

You are being joined by a few million more this year.
That being said, most people will do what they are doing
until they can't anymore, and then they won't and then
they will get pissed, sad, and finally busy.

The newbies are coming! The newbies are coming!
Let's be as patient and kind to them as the sage
pioneers on this site have been to all of us.

[cube]

We haven't hit the "Long Emergency".......yet.

I think the first "clue" will come when the 3rd world completely collapses and there's either an attempt at a mass migration or some type of Rwanda massacre but multiple by 1000 fold. Once that happens the first world will be forced into action.

Even at this point Joe Sixpack will still be able to afford to idle his car at the local McDonald's drive through but the cost to the 1st world to put a "band aid" on the 3rd world's problem will be astronomical.

[zeke]

the "long emergency" as coined by JH Kunstler does not have an "on/off" quality to it, much like Peak Oil Itself.

IOW, you don't go to bed one night with everything rosey posey, then wake up the next morning with the world on fire and rotting corpses piled 8 stories high.

but I believe that we HAVE been seeing the indications that TLE is underway.

The Iraq "war" is a great example. Rising prices, shortages of commodities and riots over same...

Plus, environmental issues, which Kunstler includes in the discussion.

I am not running around screaming, but I am conducting my life as though it was "game on" right now. I am using less of everything, developing new skill sets, and, I think most importantly, I am prepared mentally.

When I initially educated myself on this subject, I had about a week or two of serious moping and worrying, then snapped out of it and decided to prepare for reality rather than try to wish it away.

It is beginning slowly, but, to borrow a phrase from Gil Scot Heron, the Long Emergeny WILL put you in the Driver's Seat!

zeke

[TreeFarmer]

I have mixed feelings that the long emergency is here.

Facts that make me think that it is here are 1) that India and China now are serious consumers of oil (as compared to 25 years ago) and that means much more competition for oil and 2) we are 25 years further along with consumption than we were in the 1980's when the previous oil shock hit. Thirdly, there are a lot more people on the earth than there were 25 years ago.

I have one fact aginst this being the long emergency. In the 1990's the price of oil was so low that not only was there very limited exploration and drilling for new supplies but even a lot of maintenance was delayed. Also a lot of expansion work in refineries was put off as well. As a parallel to this, I have invested in a lot of natural gas wells in PA, during the mid-late 1990's we were selling nat gas for $1.80 at one point and just hoping not to lose too much money. Once the price came back we started drilling more wells. We may see the same thing with oil supplies, with higher prices in the last few years, increased drilling world wide might work to depress or at least stablilize prices for a few years.

With all of that in mind, if you think of previous oil shocks as consisting of shock then recovery, if there is a recovery after this shock, it will probaly be the last recovery. So what I'm saying is that if this is not the long emergency, the next oil shock will almost certainly signal the long emergency.

TF

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 't')ruly the beginning

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', 'I') have mixed feelings that the long emergency is here.

[allenwrench]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('cube', 'W')e haven't hit the "Long Emergency".......yet.

I think the first "clue" will come when the 3rd world completely collapses and there's either an attempt at a mass migration or some type of Rwanda massacre but multiple by 1000 fold. Once that happens the first world will be forced into action.

Even at this point Joe Sixpack will still be able to afford to idle his car at the local McDonald's drive through but the cost to the 1st world to put a "band aid" on the 3rd world's problem will be astronomical.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'R')emember when you became PO aware and were in the digging for better information and cross checking yourself
to be sure you weren't just spooked?

You are being joined by a few million more this year.
That being said, most people will do what they are doing
until they can't anymore, and then they won't and then
they will get pissed, sad, and finally busy.

The newbies are coming! The newbies are coming!
Let's be as patient and kind to them as the sage
pioneers on this site have been to all of us.

[Keith_McClary]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dhfenton', ' ') I believe we'll see a period of adjustment, and then some recovery.

[alokin]

back to the topic:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')e haven't hit the "Long Emergency".......yet.

[patience]

alokin,
I agree we are not there yet. The things you mentioned I think are signposts that we are getting close. Whe I read about those things, it makes me want to get a lot of changes made in our life, so we can better meet what is coming.

edit: And get it all done FAST!

[mos6507]

PO.COM might get more traffic if the servers were faster. If this were any other board I would not tolerate the error messages and the length of time it often takes for a post to complete. I think TheOilDrum has gotten a lot more traffic than here. People use the blog comments there as a pseudo-BBS.