Peak Oil
Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
Post a reply

Re: Lifeaftertheoilcrash.net

Unread postby born2respawn » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 14:53:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SOSaD', 'I') just found this site today....and....It has answered every question i ever had on peak oil...It is basically telling me...WE ARE SCREWED! But what I am STILL unsure of is WHEN WILL THIS HAPPEN! Ive heard 2005,2006,2010..all the way through 2060....As you can see..i am very confused and want to know when i should realistically prepare! Help Please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

In my opinion his site veers off towards the alarmist, especlially given the amount of time he seems to give over to saying why nothing can save us. That's his opinion on the matter though, that Peak Oil is going to happen is pretty obvious once you break it down. Otherwise we're assuming there's an infinite amount of oil on this finite lump of rock.

Hopefully by now you've started seeing how people are peparing or are building up a list of reasons why it won't be so bad. Either will help you stay sane and away from depression, which is a good thing.
User avatar
born2respawn
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 198
Joined: Thu 15 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Britain
Top

Unread postby stu » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:44:09

Jay

Regardless of all you say Savinar has done a brilliant job of informing people as a whole about Peak Oil.

Yes his style may be very pessimistic but sometimes you need to shock people in order to get them to act.

No he is not an expert on PO but then again neither is anyone who reguarly posts on this forum.

If you google Peak Oil his site is the top of the list.

If that is not a testament to his achievements of informing people then I don't know what is.
User avatar
stu
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2500
Joined: Mon 04 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Ye Olde Englande
Top

Unread postby julianj » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 16:45:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')Lost in the sediments, eh? Maybe future generations will find it in the form of a sticky black substance that burns well. They could use it to build an entire civilization. Then one day they would burn through half of it and be forced back to a world without it. I dunno, it's a possibility...


Tyler: :lol: Excellent!

Wallygator, many of us go through a lot of stomach-churning times after we find out about PO. denial, sleepless nights, boozing, wondering about my career...

But many of us on the forum, including myself, think that the airlines will be the Canary in the Mineshaft: they're already going to the wall. I suggest that you need to examine other career options. I've already made my mind up, I'm going to hand build wind turbines.

It'll keep me out of the militia and the farm labour force :)
julianj
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 913
Joined: Thu 30 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: On one of the blades of the fan
Top

Unread postby lotrfan55345 » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 17:13:04

SoSad, I think you should have some of these:
Image
lotrfan55345
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1091
Joined: Tue 20 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Minneapolis / Pittsburgh
Top

Unread postby MattSavinar » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 20:31:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Aaron', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')n the other hand, Jay has a right to question anyone's credibility, it helps us all determine the truth. We question the credibility of SA all the time, as well as IEA and all the other writers, so, Jay raises fair points. I've email with Matt, and believe he is big enough to take the criticism.




The problem with Jay is that he never bothers to question or comment any of the facts and/or conclusions I present.

If you take a look through his posts, at least the ones where he isn't busy either flaming people or threatening people with physical and or financial attacks, he actually has a pretty wide ranging knowledge of energy technology.

What he could do, if he wasn't so busy flaming/threatening everybody, is something like this:

"Half way down the main page on his site, Savinar quotes experts A,B,and C as saying such and such. He then goes on to say why along with facts 1,2, and 3, events X,Y,Z are going to happen. Here's why he's wrong. "

About a year ago, somebody posted a thread regarding my calculations of demand/supply. Turned out I had done the calculations wrong (although the main point I was making still stood). Guess what? The next day I updated my site to reflect the recommendations of the person who made the post pointing out my error.

Jay has the capability to make these type of posts, but instead he focuses on "exposing" me as a mid-twenties, non-practicing attorney with no background in petroluem geology.

I suppose his efforts at "exposing" me and my "lack of credibility"would be well worth the time, except for the fact that I make my age and professional/educational background abundantly clear on my site.

See
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/aboutme.html

I even post a picture, which is more than Jay has ever done. Perhaps he has a "face for radio."

One tidbit regarding attorneys versus "experts": experts, particularly economists, are trained to tell you what will happen if everything goes according to plan (ie, the econ textbook)

Attorneys are trained to research legal precedents, analyze the facts of the case before them in light of those precedents, and then postulate what will happen in the real world, where if things always went according to the plan, there would be no need for attorneys.

If your client asks you what will happen give a certain set of circumstances, you give them your best opinion based on an analysis of thier factual situation in light of previous, similiar cases.

If the case ever goes to trial, the attorney calles expert witnesses to the stadn. If Peak Oil was on trial, those experts would be people like Simmons, Deffeyes, Yongquist, Campbell, etc. . . .

In the case at hand (peak oil/collapse of civilization) the facts of the current case involve resource depletion, financial insolvency, imperial overstretch etc. . .

So let's look at previous cases most analagous to the current case: Easter Island, the Viking Norse, Rome, etc. . . .

Given what has happened in these previous cases, this case will likely end in the same result. Of course, there is always the possibility of some "miracle" happening, but outside of that I would advise you to prepare as though the precedents are going to be followed.

Anways, I wouldn't worry too much about Jay. As per one of his recent posts, he is applying for EU citizneship. Given the fact Bush's budget cuts services for the mentally ill, Jay might be better off over in France where they have more compassion and tolerance for folks suffering from certain "challenges."

Matt
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Unread postby MattSavinar » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 20:38:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scooter_Rider', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skateari', 'H')ey your the one who admitted all you do all day is watch TV and flame people on the internet.

Not me :shock:

(edit) PS- im done with this. No more of this crap for the sake of this site, k?


I also concur. Responding to Jay is like trying to tell a 2-year old to stop sucking it's thumb. :lol:


It's more like trying to get a bitch-in-heat to stop humping your leg.

Matt
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Unread postby JayHMorrison » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 21:43:55

Matt, turn up the heat in your apartment. Your brain has gone numb again.
Make a man a fire and he will be warm for a day.
Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
JayHMorrison
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 795
Joined: Thu 17 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Unknown
Top

Unread postby MattSavinar » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 21:59:53

Could somebody quote Jay's post? I put him on my ignore list and can't see what he wrote unless somebody else quotes it first.

Matt
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Unread postby MonteQuest » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 22:02:47

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', 'M')att, turn up the heat in your apartment. Your brain has gone numb again.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO
Top

Unread postby JayHMorrison » Tue 22 Feb 2005, 22:50:09

<another post to keep Matt wondering what I am posting>
Make a man a fire and he will be warm for a day.
Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
JayHMorrison
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 795
Joined: Thu 17 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Unknown
Top

Unread postby stu » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 06:14:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', '&')lt;another post to keep Matt wondering what I am posting>

:lol:

I don't agree with where you're coming from Jay... but thats funny
User avatar
stu
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2500
Joined: Mon 04 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Ye Olde Englande
Top

Unread postby JayHMorrison » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 09:43:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MattSavinar', 'C')ould somebody quote Jay's post? I put him on my ignore list and can't see what he wrote unless somebody else quotes it first.

Matt


That is kind of funny. Matt put me on his ignore list, but he is desperate to know what I am posting. "Do I shoot him? Or am I more interested in what he will say next?"
Make a man a fire and he will be warm for a day.
Set a man on fire and he will be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
JayHMorrison
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 795
Joined: Thu 17 Jun 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Unknown
Top

Unread postby RIPSmithianEconomics » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 15:06:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JayHMorrison', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('skateari', '
')
Jay, enough of the Matt bashing.


There will never be enough Matt bashing.


:lol:

It's ironic, we were doing a study on electronic forums in Computing today and I pointed to this site as the most mature one that I post on. But every site has its WiddowMaker, its Americanus or its BigZeke.
There'll be war, there'll be peace
But one day all things shall cease
All the iron turned to rust
All the proud men turned to dust
So all things time will mend
So this song will end
RIPSmithianEconomics
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun 11 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Scotland
Top

Unread postby RIPSmithianEconomics » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 15:09:52

Nice to see you back here Matt.
There'll be war, there'll be peace
But one day all things shall cease
All the iron turned to rust
All the proud men turned to dust
So all things time will mend
So this song will end
RIPSmithianEconomics
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 260
Joined: Sun 11 Jul 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Scotland
Top

Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 15:13:41

For what its worth, I think Matt deserves credit for his efforts in raising awareness in this area. His site maybe a little pessimistic for my taste but the facts presented reference PO are sound and well thought out.

I was diverted to this site after e mailing Matt via LATOC. Not only did he have the courtesy to reply to my mail, but went to the trouble of answering my questions , providing links and generally being a nice chap.

So cut the guy some slack.

PB :)
User avatar
Permanently_Baffled
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 1151
Joined: Thu 12 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: England
Top

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 16:48:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Scooter_Rider', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob_Reloaded', 'Y')eah, it looks pretty bad. The S is about to H the F.

You may begin drinking now.

Also, buy a scooter.

That is all.


:lol: :lol: :lol:


I think JayMorrison is a secret government agent sent here to undermine the peak oil movement. :shock: or...

from http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic674.html:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')erhaps JayHMorrison is not real but simply a spam bot

quote]

IMHO, the theory that JayHMorrison is actually a spam bot may seem to have some merit at first, but fails when one analyzes the totality of the evidence.

If JayHMorrison is indeed a spambot, one would expect his posts to have a degree of intellectual sophistication and diversity present in the average piece of spam.

As about 50% of his posts fail to meet this standard, I am more inclined to believe JayHMorrison is actually a member of the species "North Americanus Prozac Intakus." (NAPI)

NAPI is a cousin of homo-sapiens that tends to wildly oscillate between being a productive member of its "tribe" and being a huge roadblock to productivity, depending on the amount of medication introduced into its petri dish.

Matt
Last edited by MattSavinar on Wed 23 Feb 2005, 17:30:10, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Unread postby Pops » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 17:23:47

I suppose if there was a poll, it would show Matt has induced more people to investigate PO than Jay – that has to be worth something, after all, even Chicken Little needed a little scratch.
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 19746
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 04:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac
Top

Unread postby seahorse2 » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:23:12

It was Matt's site that made me aware of Peak Oil. I was trying to understand dollar valuation issues, and got a hit on his site. Like everyone else here, I've read hundreds if not thousands of documents, books on this issue since. To this day, I think that Matt's site is the best site for someone to begin learning about PO. It provides all the links, to this site and others, so that someone can learn and form their own opinions. The beauty of the site is that its educational and well written. You don't have to agree with Matt's ultimate opinions to find his site useful.

As for Jay, he's obviously interested and a little concerned about PO. He is a regular contributor to this site, showing his interest, and his posts also show he is concerned with possible implications (thus changing his portfolios), although he's not concerned with any form of die-off. Surely Jay could concede Matt has helped with PO awareness as Pops points out.

Also, Jay should concede he actually likes Matt in some strange way. Antagonizing Matt certainly gives Jay something to do, entertains him, and that's worth something.

However, Jay, who attacks Matt's age, experience, etc., has yet to answer my questions about his own age, education, life experience, etc. So, its hard for us to really put them in the "ring" to fight unless we can tell if they're in the same "weight" class. Its easy to sit in the crowd and shout insults, but its hard to step into the ring.
Last edited by seahorse2 on Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:40:41, edited 2 times in total.
User avatar
seahorse2
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 2042
Joined: Mon 18 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Top

Unread postby nailud » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 18:34:52

Since this thread is so all-over-the-place anyway, I have a question for RdSnt (if you're still here): What does "gravity is not a force, it is a boundary layer" mean?
User avatar
nailud
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 75
Joined: Thu 20 May 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Dallas, TX
Top

Unread postby MattSavinar » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 20:49:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', '.')

Also, Jay should concede he actually likes Matt in some strange way. .


I suspect there is some truth to this.

Perhaps Jay, who expresses very conservative political views, is employed as a database programmer for the folks at Talon News.

Not that there's anything wrong with that.

Matt
User avatar
MattSavinar
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 1918
Joined: Sun 09 May 2004, 03:00:00
Top
PreviousNext
Post a reply

Return to Open Topic Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests



cron