Intraday high (so far) $119.90 @ 11:30 am!
Down to $119. 37 @ 2:36 pm CT.
PeakOil is You
Re: Another Oil price Record
Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by Ferretlover » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 16:36:23
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by Gandalf_the_White » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 16:37:27
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('idomar', '$')119.92,
will it go over $120 before tomorrow's inventory report?
What if the numbers are crappy?
$125?
$130?
will it go over $120 before tomorrow's inventory report?
What if the numbers are crappy?
$125?
$130?
Nothing ever goes straight up. Even if the numbers are crappy expect it to go down. That is just the way markets work. Expect it to go down to $105 to $110 and everyone call it cheap and then we go higher and stay above $120.
It is a good thought and may happen. However, I get the sense that the paradigm has shifted. The willingness to be exuberant on good numbers which are always later revised toward the bad is falling apart. Russia and Saudi Arabia have essentially called peak in the last week. The dollar is in a long flat death spiral that is accelerating. Everyone knows now that American economic hegemony is in it's death throes. We were the past, but places like Europe are set for the future. We refuse to change for our own good, they embrace it. From a purely secular perspective default argument of American pride just does not cut it anymore.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by peak » Tue 22 Apr 2008, 21:13:55
I think the price exploded due to the expectation of a fed rate cut (dollar falling) soon, inventories report showing another fall, AND demand/supply of oil.
Tomorrow crude can rally even more from the inventory report, and again when fed cuts more than what the consensus of what investors' speculate.
Tomorrow crude can rally even more from the inventory report, and again when fed cuts more than what the consensus of what investors' speculate.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by Forney2008 » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 00:47:30
What if the Fed pauses or even raises interest rates? What would happen? Some over at the tickerforum see that the federal reserve is having trouble keeping the fed funds target rate low, and in fact it is rising some, suggesting a change in monetary policy. I think oil would fall a bit if the Fed raised rates, but soon after fundamental supply and demand imbalances will push oil back up to new highs. What do people like Dantespeak or Pup have to say about this possible scenerio?
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by peak » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 02:25:49
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Forney2008', 'W')hat if the Fed pauses or even raises interest rates? What would happen? Some over at the tickerforum see that the federal reserve is having trouble keeping the fed funds target rate low, and in fact it is rising some, suggesting a change in monetary policy. I think oil would fall a bit if the Fed raised rates, but soon after fundamental supply and demand imbalances will push oil back up to new highs. What do people like Dantespeak or Pup have to say about this possible scenerio?
The price of oil should already reflect the possibility of a rate cut because of the lower valuation of the dollar. If they don't cut interest rates or even raise them then of course the price of crude oil will fall.
Speculators seem to determine short term oil prices, fundamentals seem to control the long term oil prices.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by Sys1 » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 02:58:54
Peak : I don't agree. Sure the logic is here, if interest rates go up, economy and demand go down with oil.
But as demand will go down in a post peak oil situation, supply will go down at the same time, for some reasons :
- EROEI future looks like shit.
- OPEC won't like to have less money for each barrel they sell as they know the barrel of tomorrow will worth much more than today one.
- OPEC won't invest in huge oil projects as giving more oil to the huge fat bodybuilded driver of SUV will drive to a "collapse" in oil prices, which is... counter-productive from OPEC standpoint!
- OPEC countries will face the crisis just like others, but they will have the chance to use oil directly for themselves instead of loosing it on "markets", as money will worth almost nothing, especially dollar.
My worst nightmares suggested me that all this could end in a thermonuclear war.
But as demand will go down in a post peak oil situation, supply will go down at the same time, for some reasons :
- EROEI future looks like shit.
- OPEC won't like to have less money for each barrel they sell as they know the barrel of tomorrow will worth much more than today one.
- OPEC won't invest in huge oil projects as giving more oil to the huge fat bodybuilded driver of SUV will drive to a "collapse" in oil prices, which is... counter-productive from OPEC standpoint!
- OPEC countries will face the crisis just like others, but they will have the chance to use oil directly for themselves instead of loosing it on "markets", as money will worth almost nothing, especially dollar.
My worst nightmares suggested me that all this could end in a thermonuclear war.
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Re: Another Record ($119.22)
by peak » Wed 23 Apr 2008, 03:42:10
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', 'P')eak : I don't agree. Sure the logic is here, if interest rates go up, economy and demand go down with oil.
But as demand will go down in a post peak oil situation, supply will go down at the same time, for some reasons :
- EROEI future looks like shit.
But as demand will go down in a post peak oil situation, supply will go down at the same time, for some reasons :
- EROEI future looks like shit.
I don't see much difference between an EROEI of 600% (1 barrel equiv to extract 6 barrels in oil sands ran by suncor) and an EROEI of 3,000%. Which should go downward as they deplete the sands richest in oil.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')- OPEC won't like to have less money for each barrel they sell as they know the barrel of tomorrow will worth much more than today one.
OPEC is made up by lots of countries, who seem to have inflated oil figures so they could sell as much oil as possible. The Middle East would more closely resemble South Africa had they not sold oil. The oil crises from the past ended when OPEC went bankrupt.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')- OPEC won't invest in huge oil projects as giving more oil to the huge fat bodybuilded driver of SUV will drive to a "collapse" in oil prices, which is... counter-productive from OPEC standpoint!
They could care less, as long as they sell the oil. They aren't just selling to the US but around the world. Canada is the number 1 importer of crude oil to the U.S.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')- OPEC countries will face the crisis just like others, but they will have the chance to use oil directly for themselves instead of loosing it on "markets", as money will worth almost nothing, especially dollar.
And use the oil for what? How many farms do you see in the desert? They have to sell oil to get goods from elsewhere.
Where do you think the people in OPEC countries get their TVs, Cars, computers from?
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Sys1', '
')My worst nightmares suggested me that all this could end in a thermonuclear war.
