[Tanada]

Well it seems like we are still bumping along the plateau. I am becoming convinced that due to all the possible small scale replacements that we will not have the steep drop off and total collapse I see talked about so much on here.

[Pops]

Yea, and for a different analogy, how about While reading the map we won’t realize we have run out of road - or in the case of Peakers, While watching the rear view mirror...

MQ’s Asset Inertia model can be extended to each individual family budget, plan, hope and dream. Tunnel vision, blinders or whatever one terms it will certainly keep the party going for many until they run out of road.

There is a lot of credit out there for business and the average family to tap, notwithstanding what wall street thinks. I’d bet all those little dreams and plans prevent most from looking up from the grindstone till the wheels come off one family at a time.

$100 oil was supposed to be the end of the world but we are still clicking along. I doubt there will be a big thud, just death by a 1,000 (100% rag paper) cuts.

[Falconoffury]

It seems like only yesterday that Saudi Arabia was boasting about having 5 mbpd in spare production capacity. They were the swing producer. I haven't even heard the term "swing producer" in years now.

[Aaron]

I'll bet you anything that Americans in 1938 felt the exact same way about entering WWII.

Remember, oil prices take 18-24 months, or perhaps longer, to affect the rest of the economy. Big companies & governments buy oil on contracts which can last 3 or more years in some cases.

So what we are seeing now is the global reaction to oil prices 2 or 3 years or more ago.

At what point do you think the inflationary pressure becomes too much for marginal economic countries to afford?

More importantly, what lengths do you think some might go to as their fragile economies crumble beneath them?

We all know what Japan's reaction to economic embargo was during the late 1930's don't we?

"small scale replacements" simply can't ramp up quickly enough, or provide large enough production quantities to offset oil production which has been essentially flat for over 2 years now. How do we think small scale replacements will fare as depletion sets in?

How much, how quickly is what matters.

Enough for American EcoVillages to survive?

Perhaps

Enough to prevent poor, but militarily dangerous countries being pushed into some ill-conceived action?

Probably not.