[BigTex]

Mine was:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'P')osted: Thu Aug 03, 2006 6:13 am

Post subject: What Happens When Terrorists Get PO'd

This is my first post, so forgive me if this issue has already been covered specifically in another post, but it occurs to me that one problem that is almost certain to arise is when terrorists (pick your variety) realize that BY FAR the easiest way to create economic havoc is to disrupt energy supply lines, I assume primarily in the form of attacking pipelines. I realize this is already happening in many regions, but what I am talking about is a 9/11 style simultaneous attack on many pipelines in many locations (maybe throw in a supertanker or two while they're at it). Total worldwide economic and environmental chaos. An OBL wet dream.

It seems to me that the core strategy of many terrorist groups is simply to engage superior militaries in struggles of attrition, knowing that it costs the superior military probaly 50 to 100 times what it costs the terrorist groups to operate, meanwhile planning economic attacks to do the real damage to their enemies (us). I think this is precisely what we are seeing in Iraq and Lebanon right now, I just think that the terrorists have not really zeroed in on how much bang for their buck they would get from striking energy soft targets (perhaps because Iran has a blind spot in its thinking because it is getting so stinking rich off of what's moving through the energy supply lines).

If you already have market prices at $100 a barrel in the next 12-24 months, what will the market price be if every pipeline in the world starts having holes knocked in them systematically by IEDs? The U.S. military can't secure the road from the airport to the green zone in Iraq, how much harder is it going to be to secure hundreds or thousands of miles of pipeline?

[eastbay]

That was four years ago so how am I supposed to remember. I probably told someone to shut their trap.

[PenultimateManStanding]

heh heh. My first post was 3 and a half years ago. I pointed out that if the US wiped out the rest of humanity it wouldn't be genocide because all of humanity is already here in the US.

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')ine was:

[PenultimateManStanding]

madelalahi, you don't count because you haven't been here for years.

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'm')adelalahi, you don't count because you haven't been here for years.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'T')hat was four years ago so how am I supposed to remember. I probably told someone to shut their trap.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'm')adelalahi, you don't count because you haven't been here for years.

[Homesteader]

PostPosted: Fri Apr 13, 2007 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: Peak Oil, Coal, and Global Warming Add User to Ignore List Reply with quote Edit/Delete this post
My first post here after lurking and learning for some months.

A relatively new theory regarding the Permian Extinction makes it a two step global warming process. The first global warming step was the Siberian basaltic lava flows which warmed things about an estimated 5 degrees C. This led to a warming of the oceans and the release of frozen resevoirs of methyl hydrate, a potent greenhouse gas, which warmed things up another estimated 5 degrees C which toasted off the extinction of 95% of life on earth at that time. There are plenty of deposits of frozen methyl hydrate off the coasts of all the continents. The temperature increase by centuries end is estimated to be between 2.5 to 6 degrees C.

What temperature increase would need to occur today to start releasing the methyl hydrate in the warmer oceans of the world?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('eastbay', 'I') probably told someone to shut their trap.

[3aidlillahi]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'm')adelalahi, you don't count because you haven't been here for years.

[frankthetank]

Something about Chronic Wasting Disease. After a few years here, i'd eat the ass end of a whitetail any day vs eating beef from the grocery store.

[PenultimateManStanding]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '
')I've never seen you be a dick before. What's up with you today?

[jasonraymondson]

My first post no longer exists. I went to look for it and it is gone.

Mine was just "Holy crap, is this shit real"????

[thuja]

Wow- check out my first post dated October 15th, 2005- a little less than three years ago. The thread is titled "Timeline for Collapse"- and here are my pronostications...

I'm wondering what people out there think about a general timeline for collapse post-peak. I want to get as specific as possible about the years ahead and generally what things will look like economically and politically. I am focusing on the US as I live here but I think these concepts will apply to much of the first world.
I believe we're at the plateau phase of peak oil and will be wobbly for the next few years before we really go downhill in oil production. By Spring of next year, 2006, I think we will be in a recession brought on by energy prices, housing bubble deflating, inflation and rising interest rates. Those that will get hit first include: The rural poor who have to drive long distances, the folks stretched thin by ARMs, those maxed on credit cards, those who lose jobs connected to transportation (auto manufacturing, airline industry), etc.
By 2008, the recession will deepen and there will be more second level job-cuts as companies try to protect the bootom line. Increasing unemployment while inflation increases and the housing bubble really pops. There will likely be a catastrophe in the form of FannieMae going bankrupt and needing a govt. bailout, china pulling out of US currency, etc. that will really be damaging to the U.S. economy. There will be some demand destruction due to conservation and deepening recession that will be able to offset the decline in oil production. The 2008 election will focus intensely on energy and recession related matters.
By 2010, the recession will turn into a full scale depression as energy costs start to ravage the US and world economy. State and Federal budgets that support the poor will be slashed. Spikes of riots and violence throughout the states will spark up due to economic injustice. Oil and natural gas shortages will lead to rationing in some states. Geopolitically, a new war may start in an oil producing country such as Venezuela, Iran or Saudi Arabia, as the US tries to hold on to what's left.
By 2016, shortages will lead to civil unrest as well as brownouts/blackouts. Country will veer towards militaristic far right- the public elects a strongman to try and secure the remaining producing oil fields. Possible war with China, widespread unemployment, food shortages , die offs of elderly, disabled and poor. Pockets of people devoted to survival focused on localization will provide the beacon for a radical new way of life as world economies begin to crumble. Certain areas of the country and the world do better than others in this regard.
This timeline could be anywhere from 5-15 years too quick in my mind. I also hesitate to prognosticate further because it gets too difficult to know but I am interested in what other's think.

Wow- pretty good- not bang on but pretty close on some of this...and my near future prognostications are pretty scary- wonder if they will hold up...

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic13836.html+collapse

[jdumars]

Ahhh back in July, 2005...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jdumars', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', 'H')ow many are familiar with what happens to communities after a disaster like a hurricane, earthquake or tornadoe? It is incredible how people come together to rebuild.

[AirlinePilot]

Heres mine...... April of 05.....

"This is my first post. I've been lurking on this forum for about 5 or 6 months. I ended up here after searching for reasons for the rise in the price of crude oil. You see I'm a pilot for a major airline and I am seeing the hand writing on the wall. I don't like what I'm reading. I have been working in this industry for 16 years. We are in a death spiral. I work for Delta and live just south of Atlanta, GA.

The title of this thread has to do with my frustrations as of late attemtping to broach the subject of Peak Oil with my family, friends, and fellow pilots. I am rapidly becoming aware of the apathy and outright denial that we as a society are gripped with concerning this issue. While I mostly agree with the hard facts about resource depletion, I am slightly hopeful for a miracle. I say that but I'm also preparing for the worst case scenario, it's my nature as a good pilot, plan for the worst and hope for the best. If the SHTF then I will be somewhat ready.

I have tried to talk with family members, friends, and coworkers about this topic but meet consistently with denial. No one thinks we are headed for any kind of collapse or worldwide depression. I can't see how we are going to avoid it! My older brother appears to be a flat earth economist and believes we actually went to Iraq to free those folks. My frustration is compounded by the "bury your head in the sand" attitude. I constantly hear " I can't do anything about it so why worry?" I mean this is our future! I fear more and more each day for my three children, who likely will grow up during the greatest depression and population crash that mankind has ever known. Where is the sanity?

I've never been a conspiracy theorist and I guess I would consider myself a right wing republican. I'm a former Navy pilot and my background is staunchly right wing. As I get farther along in life and see things for what they are, I'm starting to question a lot of my beliefs and thoughts on many things. Peak Oil has changed my outlook dramatically. Since becoming aware of this crisis, I see and hear things with different eyes and ears. I am having a lot of trouble communicating this to folks who are stuck in the early stages of denial. I am not a stressed individual, I love my job and enjoy it immensely. What is bugging me more than anything is I may not have this job much longer. I seriously think this industry is on its death bed. What results from the coming turmoil will not include air travel as we know it today. I may be lucky enough to still do this if there is some form of limited/emergency air travel, who knows.

What cuases me the most stress now is the thought of my three wonderful kids growing up in a world without cheap resources, possible wars, depression and population crash. I have shown them our country, they have traveled and we will go abroad this summer to a few choice places as a family. They aren't little (13/15/eighteen) but I hold out little hope that they will see what I have seen during my 44 years on the planet. I hate to say it but they will be enjoying the hangover from our party. This causes me a lot of shame, I mean I could have done something about it and I just didnt see it coming. Luckily, they have seen and done a lot of things others will never get to do. Its very difficult for me to talk about this with my family, but I feel its a responsibility that has to be shouldered. They will be aware of why things are changing. I guess that's the best I can do along with showing them how to prepare. If you think about it it's very surreal in many ways.

Right now I'm in the initial stages of planning, feeling a bit overwhelmed at this point. I have started plans to attempt to become more aware of the problem and how to get off the grid and more self sufficient. I may change my job, but right now that will be very painful. I'll ride the current train as long as it looks possible, we will see.

I just needed to vent my thoughts and hopefully gain some insight on how to go about talking to others about the issue. For me it's as plain as the nose on my face and I have a lot of trouble with others who can't or won't see it. Mankind is like a giant supertanker headed for the rocks, its far to late to turn and the resulting wreck is going to be monstrous. The deckhands don't see it yet, the Captain is sleeping. Just before we hit, everyone will jump ship and try to survive in the cold, dark, turbulent waters. They won't make it long. I'm hoping to have jumped well before that in warm clothes and a liferaft with oars."

[PenultimateManStanding]

That was impressive, AP. You saw it coming. Like Cassandra. I too have kids that I love very much.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('3aidlillahi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'm')adelalahi, you don't count because you haven't been here for years.

[PrairieMule]

From Sept 2005

I started a thread soliciting advice on cattle ranching
post peak oil apocalyptic cowboy

My how far everyone has come since those simpler days.