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Study: Fuel makes many airplanes [economically] obsolete

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby Denny » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 13:47:10

I am surprised that my compnay, currently suffering financially, like many others, still has so many head office folks flying around the country. These are mostly internal, not customer visits.

So much that oculd be done with a conference call or a net meeting. They do not create an aura of austerity, the actions do not match the words.

I think the worst thing that has hit coporate expense budgets has been air travel points. Its created an incentive for all kinds of people to manufacture rationale for business fights.
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby cube » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 15:44:25

I've never ridden on a regional jet (50 seat) before. Maybe I should put that on my list of things to do sometime within a few years or I'll NEVER get a chance to do it...........if you know what I mean. :P

Does anyone have the breakdown of air travel types?
For example what percentage of air travel is:
1) regional
2) domestic
3) international
4) "trunk line"
My gut tells me regional probably makes up a small fraction. I assume in this case "regional" does not necessarily mean short distance, but instead small jet + short distance.

This is an important distinction. Some of the most profitable routes are the short distance but heavily traveled routes using large planes. These are called "trunk lines" and it's basically the cash cow of the airline business. It's the profitability of these trunk lines that subsidizes the losses of the other routes.

world's busiest air travel routes
Tokyo <---> Sapporo.....500 miles (measured by passengers)
Madrid <---> Barcelona.....300 miles (measure by number of flights)
Not surprisingly there are plans to build high speed rail links at these routes. 8)
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby Barbara » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 05:04:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'I')n Europe we have trains, but don't expect them to be comfy. They're expensive (at least in Germany) late and you may stand for two hours. But this is not because trains are bad it's because of the privatisation.

Holy words, alokin. When railroads and trains here were state-owned, they were not fancy but everything was working well. Now they're privatized, and people travel in dirt and always late.

Ah, the wonders of free market!!! :roll:
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby MrBill » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 05:33:57

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('alokin', 'I')n Europe we have trains, but don't expect them to be comfy. They're expensive (at least in Germany) late and you may stand for two hours. But this is not because trains are bad it's because of the privatisation.

Holy words, alokin. When railroads and trains here were state-owned, they were not fancy but everything was working well. Now they're privatized, and people travel in dirt and always late.

Ah, the wonders of free market!!! :roll:


Where are you people getting your information from? Deutche Bahn is not privatized. Any lateness this year has been due 90% to public sector union strikes. The other 10% has been due to weather.

I cannot think of a better railway in the world than Germany? Comfortable and efficient. Cheaper than driving. Connected to the S-bahn, U-bahn, strassen bahn, airports and busses. Connected to its neighbors in one seamless transfer. Their rolling stock is world class. If some regional Bahns are dirty or have graffiti then keep in mind who exactly is making that mess. The passengers.

Parts of Deustche Bahn will be privatized like Deutsche Post and Deutsche Telecom, but the tracks will stay in public hands. If anything its the public sector unions that may disrupt DBs privatization. For that reason as an investor I may avoid it. Deutsche Telekom has certainly been a lousy investment since it was privatized, mostly because managment paid too much for worthless 3G licenses. Deutsche Post went much smoother. Although there has been recent corruption allegations surrounding Post Bank, but that was unrelated to the privatization.

Gosh, it would be nice if our European friends could at least post accurate information about Germany and Europe, so that those that are not familiar with the local issues do not walk away confused! Anything under 4-5 hours and I will not fly. The train is more comfortable and more convenient with city to city center direct access. And better for getting some work done or just relaxing, having a beer and a bite to eat.
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 17:24:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'W')here are you people getting your information from? Deutche Bahn is not privatized. Any lateness this year has been due 90% to public sector union strikes. The other 10% has been due to weather.


Wiki says they're a public limited company; that page is actually for "Aktiengesellschaft."

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'G')osh, it would be nice if our European friends could at least post accurate information about Germany and Europe, so that those that are not familiar with the local issues do not walk away confused! Anything under 4-5 hours and I will not fly. The train is more comfortable and more convenient with city to city center direct access. And better for getting some work done or just relaxing, having a beer and a bite to eat.


Image

Vs.

Image

Germany's slightly smaller than Montana. Viva expanded passenger rail!

Love that Soviet rocket train, too! Reminds me of Verne's cannon powered spaceship.

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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby TheDude » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 17:30:43

DP - quoted myself in toto for some reason... :-x
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby cube » Fri 25 Apr 2008, 19:43:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I') cannot think of a better railway in the world than Germany?
There's a famous or perhaps more appropriately "infamous" example where a station manager in Japan committed suicide because he was so upset that his trains arrived late.

The Germans are known for their efficiency but even they can't beat that, so I guess that puts them in 2nd place........MrBill you know I enjoy giving you a hard time right! :P
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There are several reasons why Japan deserves the title of the "best" railway system in the world.
1) Japan is a mountainous country so there are trains running through tunnels, bridges, elevated guide ways, underground, and not just at ground level. It's a civil engineering marvel.
2) ON TIME - nobody does it like the Japanese.
3) headway time - The French get credit for the fastest train in the world but can they run their trains at 300 km/hr with only 5 minutes of distance between each train? ha ha
4) capacity - highest-capacity high speed rail trainset in the world , E4 Series Shinkansen. imagine a double deck 16 car train, 1,634 passengers.
5) very extensive coverage

6) The Japanese do NOT go on strike every year unlike the French :roll:
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 04:36:52

TheDude wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')iki says they're a public limited company; that page is actually for "Aktiengesellschaft."


DeutscheBahn AG is like a public crown corporation in that it is run as a business for profit, but at the moment its shareholder is the German government. Parts of DB AG will be privatized in the future like some of its real estate, but the government will keep control over the rails and some stations. So it will be split into an operating company and a holding company.

I am not convinced this is the best solution? It has not worked well in the UK so far. But like many privatizations they are half-hearted affairs, so the commercial logic usually gets buried under political interference. Then when it does not work optimally the privatization process is blamed. Of course, the reason governments privatize in the first place is usually that they do not have the ability to raise taxes to cover the necessary capital spending and upgrades and/or cannot afford to continue to subsidize ongoing operating losses.

cube wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')here are several reasons why Japan deserves the title of the "best" railway system in the world.
1) Japan is a mountainous country so there are trains running through tunnels, bridges, elevated guide ways, underground, and not just at ground level. It's a civil engineering marvel.
2) ON TIME - nobody does it like the Japanese.
3) headway time - The French get credit for the fastest train in the world but can they run their trains at 300 km/hr with only 5 minutes of distance between each train? ha ha
4) capacity - highest-capacity high speed rail trainset in the world , E4 Series Shinkansen. imagine a double deck 16 car train, 1,634 passengers.
5) very extensive coverage

6) The Japanese do NOT go on strike every year unlike the French



There has to be a reason why Japan's public debt is 158% of GDP, right? ; - )) I cannot comment on the quality of Japan's rail system because I have never been there. Maybe this year? However, Germany's does connect seamlessly to its neighbors (CZ, FR, AU, CH, Benelux) and now there are high speed trains between Munich and Berlin to Paris as well. So technically you can take a high speed train right from Bavaria to downtown London.

Germany being a relatively small, densely populated country helps, but European wide the distances are quite a bit greater, and the economics still work quite well. Discount airlines give the illusion that they are cheaper and therefore more economical, but they barely cover their fuel costs and are often a sap to regional development, so their landing fees and fixed costs are subsidized by other full fare paying airlines.This is just my own opinion. Of course, there are profitable airlines and airports, but they are in the minority and overall the industry suffers from chronic financial problems.

There is a huge push to get trucks off the road and onto rail. Especially through the Alps. Even passenger cars onto rail for long-distances like between Germany and Spain (1500 kms). DB Autozug That's good the environment now and good post peak oil decline later. There is no doubt that rail is the answer in my opinion. Its just too bad that so much public spending has been wasted on autobahns and hub and spoke airports already. Wasting assets going forward.

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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby cube » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 05:58:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '[')img]http://i230.photobucket.com/albums/ee2/4s4ufun/cartoon.jpg[/img]


I remember reading some "financial" article that sated if investors had any common sense they would of taken a gun and shot down the first airplane the Wright Brothers flew and that would of saved themselves 100 years of financial misery. Considering it was a "financial" article it contained and unusually large amount of truth. :wink:

After reading 3 articles about the "cause" of the current world rice fiasco, not 1 article care to even "suggest" that maybe this planet wasn't meant to hold 6.6 billion people. Every article kept on going on and on about how government should of (subsidize, anticipated, and managed) the situation better. I had to stop reading or end up pulling my hair out of frustration.

As for railroads it will definitely play a larger role in the future:
I think the coming economical difficulties will do more to take cars off the road and promote public transit then all the campaigning that environmentalists have ever done. :P
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 06:42:45

cube wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')s for railroads it will definitely play a larger role in the future:
I think the coming economical difficulties will do more to take cars off the road and promote public transit then all the campaigning that environmentalists have ever done.


I would not disagree with you, Cube, but I would add that there will be countries that adapt to the new realities and those that do not. Just like rail will be part of the solution to high energy prices in some countries. Others will just not get there due to their own shortsightedness. Relatively speaking winners and losers. Just as it has always been. Early movers and laggards.

The problem with environmentalists is not that they do not have valid points, but they oppose all economic development, which is simply unrealistic. They also are quite often intellectuallly lazy and academically dishonest, which does not help their cause either. The easiest arguments to refute are those based on factual errors.

The environmentalists arrested off the coast of Canada this spring during the harp and hooded seal hunt used photos of hunters clubbing seal pups. Something that has been outlawed since 1987. Old footage because it is more graphic and commands more public sympathy, but nothing to do with reality.
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby dorlomin » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 06:48:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')I am not convinced this is the best solution? It has not worked well in the UK so far. But like many privatizations they are half-hearted affairs, so the commercial logic usually gets buried under political interference. Then when it does not work optimally the privatization process is blamed. Of course, the reason governments privatize in the first place is usually that they do not have the ability to raise taxes to cover the necessary capital spending and upgrades and/or cannot afford to continue to subsidize ongoing operating losses.
The UK rail privitisation has got to be one of the greatest argument for hanging John Majors cabinet for derelection of duty, as Voltair said "Dans ce pays-ci, il est bon de tuer de temps en temps un amiral pour encourager les autres" (in this country, it is wise to kill an admiral from time to time to encourage the others). Sorry a very very long suffering UK commuter here. It is not that it was privitised, just the utter dogs breakfast of a system they chose. Rail companies not allowed to own the trains (that is the rolling stock leasing companies), another company owns the actual rail tracks (the late and unlamented railtrack) and yet more companies to do the maintanence . Privitisation should have been the rebirth of the UK rail network, not the death of dozens of its passengers.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
There is a huge push to get trucks off the road and onto rail. Especially through the Alps. Even passenger cars onto rail for long-distances like between Germany and Spain (1500 kms). DB Autozug That's good the environment now and good post peak oil decline later. There is no doubt that rail is the answer in my opinion. Its just too bad that so much public spending has been wasted on autobahns and hub and spoke airports already. Wasting assets going forward.


£21 million per mile to widen a motorway by one lane. Good lord they could have done so much infrastructure on the Midlands Mianline and other rail routes that run along side that car park.

£3 billion to widen the M6 Hmmm the West Coast mainline is our premier rail route now. A few more billion into and we could actualy look the French in the eyes when talking about rail routes.

third runway for heathrowNot sure how much the governmennt will sink into this. It should all be BAA's costs but that has never stopped Labour from getting out the chequebooks.
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby MrBill » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 06:55:33

Nothing discredits the privatization process more than privatization done poorly! I was in London last week. The congestion just keeps getting worse. Terminal 5 is a joke in many ways. Every other BAA employee is telling you where to queue with too few actually helping you check-in and get through security. But nice shopping malls. I know that is why I fly? I feel for you! ; - ))
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby bodigami » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 19:34:08

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '(')...)
The environmentalists arrested off the coast of Canada this spring during the harp and hooded seal hunt used photos of hunters clubbing seal pups. Something that has been outlawed since 1987. Old footage because it is more graphic and commands more public sympathy, but nothing to do with reality.


care to provide citations for the outlaw of clubbing? something so relevant should have being written here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seal_hunti ... to_animals
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby yeahbut » Mon 28 Apr 2008, 20:26:31

Frustrated by the lack of trains in your area? Just get yourself an old sailboat and slap some wheels on her...

"It was a belligerent April Sabbath above the 47th parallel, and we were braced against the gunwales of the sloop Molly B., scanning the livid western sky, waiting for all hell to break loose. Finally, of course, it did. It always does in this part of the world. When the squall hit us upside the starboard bow the boat heaved, the jib snapped, the mainsail swelled, the mast shuddered, and off we went on the ride of our lives.

By the time I could grab a pair of goggles to keep the rain out of my eyes we were pushing five knots. At ten knots Kitty, my wife, tied herself to a cleat. At 15 knots the jib wrenched from its stay and flapped around like abandoned laundry. At 20 knots the wind suddenly pulsed and the boom lashed about, knocking my prized Tokyo Fighter baseball cap off my head and over the stern. I started to lunge for it, but pulled back. There was a more pressing matter 300 yards aft. Bearing down hard on us, retching diesel smoke like some Third World iron works, loaded to the tippy top with pine chips and logs, was a 15-car freight train.
Bummer.

This is clearly the chief danger of sailing on railroad tracks. And for some veteran rail dogs like my co-captain, an attorney we called Loophole, it was also the chief thrill. I yanked on his slicker for attention and shook my arm at the problem. To my profound alarm, he laughed. “I can beat this sucker!’ he screeched like a park bench lunatic. I wrestled him for the mainsheet, but insanity made him stronger. “Think about it!” he shouted. “In two miles we’ll be at the spur and home free. We stop now, we’re cream cheese.” "
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 03:45:19

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('zensui', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '(')...)
The environmentalists arrested off the coast of Canada this spring during the harp and hooded seal hunt used photos of hunters clubbing seal pups. Something that has been outlawed since 1987. Old footage because it is more graphic and commands more public sympathy, but nothing to do with reality.


care to provide citations for the outlaw of clubbing? something so relevant should have being written here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seal_hunti ... to_animals


ah yes, wikipedia, the ultimate mediator of truth on the Internet. no bias on that volunteer site is there?

but I think we are refering to hunting harp and hooded seals versus seal cubs, so this is comparable to laws in Canada against harvesting either immature animals or animals out of season.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', ' ')The ship's GPS navigation unit, now in police hands, will eventually yield the truth. But Mr Watson and his group have already scored their public-relations coup. Videos of the seizure and arrests, interspersed with gory scenes of hunters clubbing seals to death, flooded television newscasts and sprouted on the internet. Many featured close-ups of cuddly, white-coated pups, although their killing has been banned since 1987.

This year's hunt for 275,000 harp seals and 8,200 hooded seals was supposed to be conducted under new, more humane rules aimed at making it more palatable to tender-hearted Europeans. That, however, now seems to be a lost cause; the EU is already considering a ban on all seal products from Canada.


Source: Canada's seal hunt
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby cube » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 05:42:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yeahbut', 'F')rustrated by the lack of trains in your area? Just get yourself an old sailboat and slap some wheels on her...
woah I guess some people live more interesting lives then me.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dorlomin', '[')url=http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2006/dec/14/retail.theairlineindustry]third runway for heathrow[/url]Not sure how much the governmennt will sink into this. It should all be BAA's costs but that has never stopped Labour from getting out the chequebooks.
I just noticed something. For the past 200 years these were the major transportation advancements:
1) canals - barges originally drawn by mules
2) railroads
3) freeways + cars
4) airplanes
5) space rockets
It seems that the more "technological advanced" a transportation system gets, the greater amount of government "help" is required to make it happen or maybe I'm just trying to hard to see a pattern?

In America the "Heathrow" equivalent would be Atlanta airport. The locals have a saying: "Whether you go to heaven or hell, you must change planes in Atlanta first." :wink:
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby Gerben » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 07:01:56

We still have a good network of canals in place in the Netherlands. Most of the cargo boats use diesel atm though. It would be cheaper than road transport but takes a while longer.
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby nemo » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 09:38:41

Canal boats are crazy efficient. I'd think that solar powered canal boats are well within the realm of what's possible. Historically, huge loads were moved on canals with just a horsepower or two. A couple of kilowatts of power is all you'd need really, even if it won't be fast.

As for turboprops and efficient aircraft, I suspect that some significant gains could be made for a slight trade-off in safety. Inflatable escape slides and oxygen masks that drop from the ceilings make us feel safer, but in reality I suspect their usefulness is rather limited - how many lives have those oxygen masks saved in total,in all airplanes, throughout the history of aviation? How much do these systems weigh, and how much extra fuel is burned to carry them around at 850kmh? There are other weight cuts to be made too in heavy multi-redundant systems and so forth. Who knows, people may just be willing to risk a 30% higher lethality rate (still really really safe after all) for a significantly cheaper ticket?
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Re: Report: Fuel makes many planes [economically] obsolete

Unread postby MrBill » Tue 29 Apr 2008, 09:50:56

I would put my money on railways, ports, canals, riverways and other 19th century means of bulk transport making a significant comeback. We can start by dredging canals and ports plus rebuilding our railbeds. As you say maybe some solar, some back-up coal to liquids, some wind power enhancements may be possible? Perhaps in some limited applications. It is a trade-off in terms of just in time versus bulk hub and spoke transport and distribution, but it is more energy efficient at the expense of larger inventories and more storage. That plus a migration of labor to sources of renewable power where manufacturing can be located versus shipping power to where it is needed and where people live now. That means a lot of stranded infrastructure. Wasting assets. Some winners and a lot of losers.

Physical Reality > Economic Consequences > Social Reaction > Political Response > Feedback Loop > New Reality > Etc.
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