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$115.00 Oil

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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 04:05:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '
')I think we are at or will very shortly reach peak population. I expect there to be left fewer than 2/3*3/4 = 1/4 of the current world population, or there abouts, by 2020 give or take a couple decades.

You meant 2050? :)


Possibly? I would hope not to have to wait that long since it is after all inevitable, but not to be desired.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 07:37:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Gandalf_the_White', '
')I think we are at or will very shortly reach peak population. I expect there to be left fewer than 2/3*3/4 = 1/4 of the current world population, or there abouts, by 2020 give or take a couple decades.

You meant 2050? :)


Possibly? I would hope not to have to wait that long since it is after all inevitable, but not to be desired.


I have commented on your statement "by 2020 give or take a couple decades".

If you take several decades from 2020, then dieoff could begin say in 1990 or now, which we obviously didn't observe.

However if you take few decades from 2050, dieoff could begin in 2010 or 2020.

Incidentally I believe that a dieoff will begin between 2010 and 2020.

The other possibility is that we may face nuclear dieoff, which could begin at any time including tomorrow afternoon.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby auscanman » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 11:42:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('EnergyUnlimited', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('auscanman', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', '
')
6,666,666,666 people on May 10th


It will take a hell of a lot longer to reach 7 billion than is projected with the food shortages just getting started now. I think we may never even reach that figure.

At some point I had a very heated argument with Monte about that.

My claim is that human population would never exceed 7.5 billion because dieoff will set in before that.

Monte was arguing that we will reach 9.0 billion at least, because demographers say so.
My counterarguments were that demographers are living in VR world producing useless computer models not corresponding to physical reality.
I think, he later accepted that we may not go above 8.5 billion if lucky enough (that was base on study of yet another set of demographers).

Emerging food crisis may well vindicate my position of no more then 7.5 billions max.


I wonder what he'd say now! I don't see him on here that much any more. This really looks as though it will unfold more quickly than all but the most extreme doomers thought.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Troyboy1208 » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 12:36:26

We still have swaths of Amazon and Congo to clear before that happens. Every chunk of land will have a crop on it of some kind...but if oil is short wont do much good without industrial fertilizer...oh and pesticides (petroleum)....and herbicides (petroleum)...bah nevermind
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby PrairieMule » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 13:53:48

I say Memorial Day weekend oil will be $120. Labor day weekend will be $138.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby PrairieMule » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 13:53:58

(double post)
Last edited by PrairieMule on Thu 17 Apr 2008, 14:14:32, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Olaf » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 14:04:50

It seems like after oil busted the $100 ceiling, everyone just said, 'well, fuck it'.

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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Stratovarius » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 14:26:05

We'll reach a point where rising oil prices is old-hat news. $250 will feel the same as $300 and $350
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby jasonraymondson » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 14:44:54

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Stratovarius', 'W')e'll reach a point where rising oil prices is old-hat news. $250 will feel the same as $300 and $350


Most people I have run across seem to have stopped caring.

It almost feels like a subtle malaise has floated in and is beginning to just drag everyone down. I just wonder how long until and at what point will everything violently unwind. Or are we just looking at how people where doing the 30's (depressed, uneasy, scavanging)?

I don't want everything to continue and watch people give up with a wimper, I want to see something truely amazing. I want to see the people rise up and over throw their opressors.

I guess I am just dreaming.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 14:50:27

I think that the price of oil is wreaking havoc now. Lots of people are driving around in enormous trucks that require lots of gas around here. They seem to be doing ok still, but I have no idea of their actual financial position.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 17:52:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'I') think that the price of oil is wreaking havoc now. Lots of people are driving around in enormous trucks that require lots of gas around here. They seem to be doing ok still, but I have no idea of their actual financial position.



Most of the stress on people is psychological. If they aren't already nursing a foreclosure, they can cope. It's like what Matt Simmons says. Oil is still cheap, if you are maybe middle class or above. It will take higher prices still for the domino effect on the economy to really damage people's finances.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby bonehead » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 19:12:29

I hope it gets to the point where no one but the rich can afford it anymore.I'm sick of this crap,we all know it's overpriced because of the dollar deflating.I also hope that natural gas follows it up as well,it's been that way lately.Screw supply and demand,it's all bullshit.The decline and fall of the world's biggest energy consumer is imminent,but i'm still somewhat happy because everyone will be getting digital tv broadcasts by Feb. 2009.
Gimme some demand destruction.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby mos6507 » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 19:40:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonehead', 'I') hope it gets to the point where no one but the rich can afford it anymore.I'm sick of this crap,we all know it's overpriced because of the dollar deflating.I also hope that natural gas follows it up as well,it's been that way lately.Screw supply and demand,it's all bullshit.The decline and fall of the world's biggest energy consumer is imminent,but i'm still somewhat happy because everyone will be getting digital tv broadcasts by Feb. 2009.


So how do you plan on handling it in "heating oil heaven"?
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Revi » Thu 17 Apr 2008, 21:12:19

Heating oil is what is going to really hurt. I was thinking that I could buy in a dip, but it looks like there aint a gonna be no dip this year.

Last year we pre-bought at $2.33, but this year we'll be lucky to get it at under $4. Ouch! That's gonnna hurt.

Bummer...

We knew it was coming, but the reality is so real...
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby PenultimateManStanding » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 13:06:09

Oil prices dropped heavy this morning, down to 113. Then lo and behold, an hour later it's up to 116 for WTI. 125 by April 29, maybe sooner.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby PrairieMule » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 13:54:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PenultimateManStanding', 'O')il prices dropped heavy this morning, down to 113. Then lo and behold, an hour later it's up to 116 for WTI. 125 by April 29, maybe sooner.


From CNN-
http://money.cnn.com/2008/04/18/markets ... 2008041811

My Dad just got laid off again this week. Second time in 15 months. They just shut the whole office down. He has worked for 20 of his 40 years as a offshore petroleum engineer in Nigeria and everything there is coming to a halt. It's a shame because there is so much sweet crude on the delta. The demand is there yet with all the pipline disruptions NO ONE is safe. Doesn't matter if your White, Asian, Black, or Eskimo. If you work for a oil comapany, you have a bullseye on your back. What does this round of attacks mean? Now we will have 150,000 barrels a day less than a week ago is what it means. Oh well, tighten your belts America and expect less Nigerian sweet.

Price marches on.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 14:17:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonehead', 'S')crew supply and demand,it's all bullshit.


Yeah.

To heck with gravity, too! :)
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby mos6507 » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 17:15:23

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')eating oil is what is going to really hurt. I was thinking that I could buy in a dip, but it looks like there aint a gonna be no dip this year.

Last year we pre-bought at $2.33, but this year we'll be lucky to get it at under $4. Ouch! That's gonnna hurt.


I was talking to my mom about the house I'll be living in when I move back to MA and she mentions the most recent fuel oil delivery at $4 a gallon. I told her that one way or another, people in new england are going to have to find ways to heat their houses without heating oil. She seems to think small changes like increased insulation will be enough. She doesn't realize that it's all going to reach a point of diminishing returns in the end because prices are going to continue to go up, and there are likely to be actual shortages.

They are also maintaining a house in Florida and I told them flying up the coast on a regular basis to stya in touch with family is going to become a big financial burden.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 17:22:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Revi', 'H')eating oil is what is going to really hurt. I was thinking that I could buy in a dip, but it looks like there aint a gonna be no dip this year.

Last year we pre-bought at $2.33, but this year we'll be lucky to get it at under $4. Ouch! That's gonnna hurt.


I was talking to my mom about the house I'll be living in when I move back to MA and she mentions the most recent fuel oil delivery at $4 a gallon. I told her that one way or another, people in new england are going to have to find ways to heat their houses without heating oil. She seems to think small changes like increased insulation will be enough. She doesn't realize that it's all going to reach a point of diminishing returns in the end because prices are going to continue to go up, and there are likely to be actual shortages.

They are also maintaining a house in Florida and I told them flying up the coast on a regular basis to stya in touch with family is going to become a big financial burden.


Thats good advice, Mos. Your family is lucky to have an extra house to sell off if things get really tight. God bless.

The wisdom of elders is very important, because they've experienced and lived through about every problem there is. They know what to do in most situations.

But they haven't experienced anything like Peak Oil.
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Re: $115.00 Oil

Unread postby bonehead » Fri 18 Apr 2008, 18:28:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('bonehead', 'I') hope it gets to the point where no one but the rich can afford it anymore.I'm sick of this crap,we all know it's overpriced because of the dollar deflating.I also hope that natural gas follows it up as well,it's been that way lately.Screw supply and demand,it's all bullshit.The decline and fall of the world's biggest energy consumer is imminent,but i'm still somewhat happy because everyone will be getting digital tv broadcasts by Feb. 2009.


So how do you plan on handling it in "heating oil heaven"?


Guess i'm going to have to suck it up until i can't afford it anymore.I've made a lot of improvements to my system that have really made a difference but it's not enough to keep up with the price increases.I'm considering a wood stove for my basement but i'm not sure it's a good idea to vent that stove into the same chimney that my oil boiler vents to.The sky's the limit on all fossil fuels these days and i do wonder what the threshold is on price before people stop bying it.
Gimme some demand destruction.
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