[americandream]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I')t's like communism - lots of statistics every day showing everything is OK, everyone believing their eyes.

[Twilight]

Eh, I don't prefer anything. Just saying this is the same bullshit the communists pulled with statistics every day. We have exceeded the Plan by 23%, etc. And no-one bought it there either. It gives you an idea of how low we have sunk though.

[Tyler_JC]

My guess up until reading this thread was 5-6% annual inflation (about 50% higher than the published figure) but if we keep seeing bullshit numbers like this, I'm going to push my guess higher.

I'm just so damn tired of being treated like an idiot by these con men. Don't they know we have access to THEIR OWN F*CKING DATA???

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', '
')I'm just so damn tired of being treated like an idiot by these con men. Don't they know we have access to THEIR OWN F*CKING DATA???

[KingM]

I'm not a doomer, and some have even called me a cornucopian here (I prefer cautiously optimistic) but these numbers can't be right.

I own a small inn so I have certain, regular expenses. My egg deliveries have gone from $1.50 a dozen to $2.50 a dozen over the least year. My property taxes have gone up 10% plus each of the last six years. My fuel is twice what it was a couple of years ago and my electricity is up about 30%. My plowing service is up about 40% in the last couple of years. Milk is up, bread is up, deliveries are up, linen service is up. Sometimes they call it a fuel surcharge, but the end result is the same.

I pay more for pretty much everything, at least 10% more year on year and sometimes a lot more. This is about the third year in a row I've seen this.

My own services have just barely crept up in cost, but obviously this has got to change or I'll be out of business. And that's the crappy thing. Everyone is paying more, charging more, but nobody is making any more money off this.

Well, except the Saudis, I guess. And the Haliburtons of the world.

[Denny]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Twilight', 'I')t's like communism - lots of statistics every day showing everything is OK, everyone believing their eyes.

[auscanman]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '
')
(By the way, not sure if this is the case in the USA, but around here, our public transit fares are up 10% over last year, from $2.50 cash fare to $2.75.)

[SchroedingersCat]

Shadow Government Statistics

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ave you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.

[Forney2008]

A couple of questions I have to ask are 1. When the U.S did these adjustments to reduce the rate of inflation via "hedonics" and substitution methods, did they reduce the inflation rate data in proportion in the previous decades such as the 60s and 70s? Second question is, does Europe or other Democratic countries use hedonics to reduce the inflation rate? 3. If inflation is really 6 or 7 percent instead of 3 or 4 percent would that mean that the economy during most of G.W.B terms and even Bill Clinton's terms in office were in recession most of the time? Would skyrocketing debt be the mirage that made people and businesses seem wealthier even as the economy was hardly growing if inflation was and is higher, thus G.D.P gets deflated down?

[mattduke]

Of course it is wrong. It has been for years. Why trust the perpetrators of inflation to tell you how badly they are screwing you?

[Denny]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', '[')url=http://www.shadowstats.com/]Shadow Government Statistics[/url]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')ave you ever wondered why the CPI, GDP and employment numbers run counter to your personal and business experiences? The problem lies in biased and often-manipulated government reporting.

[emersonbiggins]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', '
')Get ready to eat cat food.

[Tyler_JC]

I think that's how they plan on funding Social Security.

I did the calculations out once and it turns out that if they lie about the CPI even by as little as 1% per year, the savings become MASSIVE in 40 years.

The system becomes sustainable well into the next century if they are off by 2% a year.

And they are currently off by 3%-4%.

That inflation pays for a lot of Social Security checks in 2060.

I was going to add a couple thousand dollars to an IRA this summer... But screw it, I'm going to play the markets with a food ETF.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SchroedingersCat', '[')url=http://www.shadowstats.com/]Shadow Government Statistics[/url]

[Twilight]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Forney2008', 'A') couple of questions I have to ask are 1. When the U.S did these adjustments to reduce the rate of inflation via "hedonics" and substitution methods, did they reduce the inflation rate data in proportion in the previous decades such as the 60s and 70s? Second question is, does Europe or other Democratic countries use hedonics to reduce the inflation rate? 3. If inflation is really 6 or 7 percent instead of 3 or 4 percent would that mean that the economy during most of G.W.B terms and even Bill Clinton's terms in office were in recession most of the time? Would skyrocketing debt be the mirage that made people and businesses seem wealthier even as the economy was hardly growing if inflation was and is higher, thus G.D.P gets deflated down?

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') think that's how they plan on funding Social Security.

I did the calculations out once and it turns out that if they lie about the CPI even by as little as 1% per year, the savings become MASSIVE in 40 years.

The system becomes sustainable well into the next century if they are off by 2% a year.

And they are currently off by 3%-4%.

That inflation pays for a lot of Social Security checks in 2060.

I was going to add a couple thousand dollars to an IRA this summer... But screw it, I'm going to play the markets with a food ETF.

[entropyfails]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'I') think that's how they plan on funding Social Security.

I did the calculations out once and it turns out that if they lie about the CPI even by as little as 1% per year, the savings become MASSIVE in 40 years.

[MrBill]

I think it is called the Consumer Price Index and NOT the Commodity Price Index? It took me all of 30 seconds to find the breakdown of the BLS CPI and paste it here.
breakdown of the bls cpi
So if the government is trying to hide their tracks they are not very good at it? ; - ))



Assumably if rents are a large component of CPI calculations (43%), and if rents and housing cost equivalents (shelter 33%) are falling then this is dampening CPI increases?



If I read that table correctly then housing equivalents are down 9-10% so far this year? That is going to offset some inflation elsewhere.



Needless to say if you depend on imports of petroleum, and run a structural trade deficit for 35-years, then the value of the US dollar is going to be debased and cause imported inflation to be higher. That is a wealth transfer from the domestic economy to the rest of the world and it has been going on for generations.



But given that the US runs persistant budget deficits - federal, state and municipal - and has huge unfunded future liabilities to service (someday) you have to be happy that the government is under reporting true inflation or not? I mean who exactly is supposed to pay for those COLA increases on all those unfunded pension liabilities?

[phaster]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Denny', 'I') place no credibility in the official CPI anymore. Let's look at today's news item, I see this today on CNN Money: "Consumer prices edge higher":

"The Consumer Price Index, the government's key inflation measure, rose 0.3%, compared to February, when prices were unchanged. The gain matched the forecasts of economists surveyed by Briefing.com."
- Just up 0.3% in a month, overall? Thus, it cost you just $100.30 for what cost you $100 in February. Does this match anybody's perceptions?

"The price of energy jumped 1.9% percent in the month." So, in other words, if a typical consumer paid $3.20 for a gallon gas in February, that same gallon would have cost about $3.26 in March, Up about 6 cents. Does this match anybody's exprience? I saw gasoline rise 6 cents a gallon in just one week in Florida in March.

[Denny]

They are at it again. See CNN Money

"...the improved inflation report Wednesday gave stocks a boost.

Consumer Price Index:The CPI rose 0.2% in April, versus forecasts for a rise of 0.3%. Stripping out food and auto sales, CPI rose 0.1%, versus expectations for a rise of 0.2%. Food prices played a big role in the rise in prices, posting the biggest jump in 18 years."

So, the biggest jump in food prices in 18 years (and likely fuel isn't too far behind) only results in a 0.1% difference between the "core" CPI change and the real CPI? Who really believes the cost of living only went up by 0.2% month over month?