[Barbara]

Well, believe it or not, this article was written in 1976 by a fishermen magazine publisher. It deserves a read.
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... ament.html

[JohnnyDangerously]

I very much agree Barbara! I thought the piece was fairly remarkable; as good analysis of PO in general and Hubbert's work specifically as any I have seen lately. Incidently, it shows from a quote from a handout of Hubbert's presentation in 1956 that he not only nailed the timing of our national oil production peak but the global peak as well:

"The pre-printed version of Hubbert's paper distributed at the meeting made the following statements:

"According to the best currently available information, the production of petroleum and natural gas on a world scale will probably pass its climax within the order of a half a century, while for both the United States and for Texas, the peaks of production may be expected to occur within the next 10 or 15 years.""

Also noteworthy is what was already known about the limiting implications of tar sands and oil shale development at that time (1976).

We have advanced- on schedule and essentially without deviation- from the US "Petroleum Predictiment" in the 70's to the full blown global "Energy Crises/(Catastrophy)" at our doorstep. Nice work USA... I think I'll go fishing... and forget the size restrictions and screw the limit.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Barbara', 'W')ell, believe it or not, this article was written in 1976 by a fishermen magazine publisher. It deserves a read.
http://mobjectivist.blogspot.com/2005/0 ... redicament
.html

[Jack]

Great article! It's now saved as a permanent part of my Peak Oil library...

[MacG]

Great post! I get a feeling that it confirm my hypothesis that it not is a matter of lack of knowledge as much as plentitude of denial which is the problem with PO.

[nth]

Hrm... this article to me points to the fact that peak oil cannot be predicted accurately.

After the 70's embargo, we have a run of approx 30 years of cheap oil.
Go figure.

I personally don't believe we will have cheap oil.
But will we ever find more oil?

in 1976, he asked the same question and no one answered him?
today, we don't have the answer either, but somehow oil production grew several times over.

to me this is just points to how unpredictable global oil is.
one thing to note is that US never peak again, even with alaska.
now, that we are scouring the world for oil, the only place we have not look for is covered by treaties preventing us to exploit.

i think our last hope is to rewrite these treaties and open up to oil exploration, which will give us enough oil to last our life time and let our childrens deal with die-off.

[RG73]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'i') think our last hope is to rewrite these treaties and open up to oil exploration, which will give us enough oil to last our life time and let our childrens deal with die-off.

[0mar]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'i') think our last hope is to rewrite these treaties and open up to oil exploration, which will give us enough oil to last our life time and let our childrens deal with die-off.

[Novus]

I think this following excerpt is the most relevent part of the article.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'Y')ou will note that I chose the title, "Our Petroleum Predicament" rather than the term "Energy Crisis" we have all heard until we're sick of it. I don't think "Energy Crisis" is correct. I chose the word Petroleum because it includes both oil and natural gas, which supply 75% of our energy, and these are the substances with which we have aproblem. Our coal is not threatened, neither is water power. The word "Crisis" implies an immediate situation whose outcome will determine whether good or bad consequences will follow. "Crisis" is also used to describe the turning point of a disease when it becomes apparent whether the patient will live or die. Using the word "Crisis" implies that something came up suddenly which can and must be cured with a quick-fix remedy or all is lost. You can see why the term "Energy Crisis" does not correctly describe our present problems.

[PO_TimeCr0ss]

Wow, that was as good as the 1956 Hubbert report itself. Written in 1976 no less. Wow. 17 million+ barrels a day the US was consuming then?

At 30+ million barrels 30 years later...looks like we didn't learn much.

[nth]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('0mar', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('nth', 'i') think our last hope is to rewrite these treaties and open up to oil exploration, which will give us enough oil to last our life time and let our childrens deal with die-off.

[SoothSayer]

Energy Bulletin have found a gem here

One thing that I noted during a quick scan was that neither car pooling nor public transport usage increased during the crisis!

I think I will plough through this lot to see if there are any mega hints & tips lurking which will be useful to us 32 years later!

[Peak_Plus]

What grabs me is that nothing has really changed in the discussion. 32 years later we're still talking about the same alternatives in the same manner. Technology has brought us an enormous way since then. But I can't help but get the sense that "nothing changes New Year's Day".

I only have one hope for the future that is not mentioned above: internet and net"working" from home.

[kochevnik]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'W')hat grabs me is that nothing has really changed in the discussion. 32 years later we're still talking about the same alternatives in the same manner.

[Bleep]

Video from 1975

When the Circuit Breaks: America's Energy Crisis (Part I)

When the Circuit Breaks: America's Energy Crisis (Part II)

[Peak_Plus]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kochevnik', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Peak_Plus', 'W')hat grabs me is that nothing has really changed in the discussion. 32 years later we're still talking about the same alternatives in the same manner.

[Chuckmak]

I tend to pull this article up every six months or so, just to get a good laugh. Enjoy!

[web]http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/254255.stm[/web]

[Chuckmak]

[web]http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/231764.stm[/web]

[bl00k]

Ahhh the late 90's.... when life was simple... when the biggest problem the US had was an intern giving the president a blowjob.

Good ole' days.

[Tyler_JC]

To go back to 1999 and buy up oil futures...

[Chuckmak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')o go back to 1999 and buy up oil futures...