Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Enemy

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby MrBill » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 03:58:34

BigTex wrote:
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'M')rBill to what extent does economic analysis provide a solution to the problem of sustainable vs. non-sustainable growth and consumption?

It seems to me that price-led demand destruction for non-renewable resources occurs way too late using economic analysis.

We need an analytical tool that creates demand destruction when we are 10% down the road of a peak in production, not 90%.

Please help me understand how economic analysis provides a helpful solution to the problem you pose above.

A fire alarm that only goes off when the building is mostly burned down is not a good fire alarm.



Physical Reality > Economic Consequences > Social Reaction > Political Response > Feedback Loop > New Reality > Etc.



We have had good economic models in place now since at least the end of the last Great Depression, and economic crises like the Weimar Republic have been studied to death. What you're asking for is a fire alarm that protects consumers, businesses, governments and nations from themselves. It seems that everyone is trying to grow faster than trend and in excess of our carrying capacity. Sorry that is human nature and a not a failure of economic analysis. Do you think that Hillary gives a rat's a$$ about sustainability in the 21st century in her mad dash for the Wight Haus? Rule by the masses trumps economic analysis seven ways from Sunday! ; - )
The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
User avatar
MrBill
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5630
Joined: Thu 15 Sep 2005, 03:00:00
Location: Eurasia

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Doly » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 10:11:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', 'I')t seems that everyone is trying to grow faster than trend and in excess of our carrying capacity. Sorry that is human nature and a not a failure of economic analysis.


"Human nature" used to be that all your teeth fall when you get old. "Human nature" used to be that half your children died before reaching adulthood. "Human nature" used to be that everybody experienced starvation at some point in their lives. "Human nature" used to be that you would have the same profession as your father or mother.

People has always blamed on "human nature" their own inability to find solutions to a problem. I personally believe that the flaws of our current economic system are in our current economic system, not in "human nature".
What are you doing about peak oil?
I am doing this
(click on the www button) v
User avatar
Doly
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4370
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 11:35:36

There is no dichotomy between human nature and economic systems. Our economic systems have gone through the same scrutiny and fine tuning that our food production, dentistry and health care have to reduce deaths.

Kudzu Ape has proven remarkably resilient in organizing the conversion of the planets diverse biomass over to human biomass along with all the slave plants and animals that reinforce this resiliency.

Our economic systems are not the cause of this, they are a consequence, as is technology and natural resource exploitation, of Kudzu Ape's insatiable appetite toward consumption and expansion.

The moment humans were exposed to the tools (technology and fuel) to expand they did. Economic systems evolved and improved to make this expansion resilient. This is only another trade mark of the Kudzu Ape.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9572
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 13:02:26

I think it is our culture (reflected in our economy), and not our "nature" which is the problem. If it were our "nature" then we would have seen all human cultures engage in the same behaviors, which we have not. Many cultures did not engage in these behaviors until they were forced into them by our culture.
Ludi
 

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 13:55:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MrBill', '
')
Clearly unsustainable. Not the concept, but the tragedy of the commons and our own short-sightedness. Ignorance is our enemy!


It's not ignorance, Mr.Bill. And it's not a problem of the Commons, (the standard argument used to undermine socialism)If large areas are put into some kind of common trust and allowed to replenish, they will. The problems, to a large degree, is one of corporate interests, running roughshod all over the commons, with govt complicity.
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 14:09:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'I') think it is our culture (reflected in our economy), and not our "nature" which is the problem. If it were our "nature" then we would have seen all human cultures engage in the same behaviors, which we have not. Many cultures did not engage in these behaviors until they were forced into them by our culture.


Ultimately every cultural expression reflects some part of our nature doesn't it? This is complicated. Different cultures reflect different aspects of our "nature" and one could argue that today's materialistic culture is unbalanced in it's over emphasis of materialism. But to blame this solely on "our" culture is to say that our modern malaise is reducible to the evils of western caucasian european modernism. I don't think it is so simple.

I read this article this morning on the Chinese dilema in Tibet and I don't think reading this you can come to the conclusion that the current materialism China is embracing is an affliction of a western european cultural virus. Their ancient philosophies are very complimentary of their current "Kudzu Ape" behaviours. Here is the article http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/JD10Ad01.html

So it would seem that if cultures convergently adapted materialistic orientations then this must on some level reflect certain human "nature". Sadly, like the Tibetans, all those other cultures that were not so oriented around materialism are absent today from the landscape.

What is unprecedented today is the great interdependency on a global scale of one predominate cultural model whereby this is being reinforced by contributions of different cultures. It is a tremendous reinforcement of the "Kudzu Ape" culture and proving very very resilient. Aspects of China's ancient pragmatic Confucian philosophy for example now being incorporated into the effenciency of the materialistic model. Our economic system, our energy systems, our food distribution, health care etc etc. will all now be made more resilient as resource depletion allows us to apply the austerity for example of this new Chinese philosophy. That is a frightening thought, don't you think??

So with each tightening of the screws, with each new environmental problem, economic problem, energy problem, we aren't really seeing collapse unfolding are we. Rather a more resilient materialism, efficient and reinforcing the current cultural model of the Kudzu Ape.

Do you begin to understand the need to undermine the infrastructures that support these memes?

It is naive to believe that "our" culture has infected the planet. It goes way way deeper than that and touches some elements of the human animal, this rapacious Kudzu Ape.

I will suggest an alternative idea. The human animal is flawed. Religions and morals and even many of the rituals of ancient hunter gatherer cultures are present not as reflections of some older pure garden of eden state of humanity but rather as cultural elements that evolved to contain these selfish rapacious parts of human nature that probably evolved from selective pressures that existed in the savannas of Africa. Although tempered by altruism, compassion and art humans have underneath a base line that has a hyena type rapacious element.

The Kudzu Ape of today is not flawed. Our species is actually at the pinnacle of adaptability on the planet and expressing with extraordinary success these rapacious elements.

We are the first species to harvest so efficiently and selfishly the planets resources. It is a very impressive evolutionary branch of the tree of life. But alas, a branch that will eventually end in extinction.

Over 95% of the species that ever existed are already extinct. Kudzu Ape is on the fast track to join these ranks.

Today I don't feel very optimistic. Sorry
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9572
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 16:25:46

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GASMON', '[')However, space is the next frontier for our modern day competitors, THE CHINESE. They increasingly have the know how, and currently have (all) the money.


I hear these references of the Chinese being our competitors and also hear that they are coming late to the consumption party.

They are not late to the party. They have arrived just in time. Their austere cultural heritage is perfectly timed for prospering on the energy descent. It is almost orchestrated how their emergence is timed with the peak of major resources. No culture has been better honed to surviving in depleted environments as the Chinese. They are not our competitors but rather enablers to extend Kudzu Ape further into overshoot.

Getting to Space? I think your dreaming. Kudzu Ape will not extend it's invasive nature beyond the planet IMHO.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9572
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby timbo » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 18:02:37

Impractical as it may currently be I get an extremely faint glimmer of hope from concepts like Gross National Happiness http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gross_national_happiness rather than Gross National Product aka Gross Consumption.

Unfortunately like most of my fellow uber-doomers I think that the solution will be imposed on us by circumstances rather than any sane attempt to move away from rampant consumerism. And that the imposed adjustment is going to be very traumatic.
User avatar
timbo
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 159
Joined: Sat 13 May 2006, 03:00:00
Location: Australia

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 19:46:47

Last edited by Ludi on Thu 10 Apr 2008, 19:57:12, edited 1 time in total.
Ludi
 

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 19:56:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', ' ') But to blame this solely on "our" culture is to say that our modern malaise is reducible to the evils of western caucasian european modernism.


When I say "our culture" I don't mean "western caucasian european modernism."

I can't believe I've been talking you you for so many YEARS here, Ibon, and you still think thats what I'm saying.


I mean civilization, our culture of civilization.


All your discussion of other cultures refer to civilization.


I can't believe, after YEARS of talking about this, I have to even say this again to you Ibon.



Our culture is not humanity. Civilization is not humanity. It is just one expression of tens of thousands of cultures.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 20:02:52

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')
I will suggest an alternative idea. The human animal is flawed. Religions and morals and even many of the rituals of ancient hunter gatherer cultures are present not as reflections of some older pure garden of eden state of humanity but rather as cultural elements that evolved to contain these selfish rapacious parts of human nature that probably evolved from selective pressures that existed in the savannas of Africa. Although tempered by altruism, compassion and art humans have underneath a base line that has a hyena type rapacious element.



The human animal is born with a set of drives that can be tempered or exaggerated by culture. They are entirely social animals and are extremely sensitive to social censure. A society that condemns rampant materialism would be very easy to create. Piece of cake. That's one of the reasons, diminishing resources don't worry me as much as uber doomers. I know what can be accomplished through peer pressure.
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 20:09:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'T')hat's one of the reasons, diminishing resources don't worry me as much as uber doomers. I know what can be accomplished through peer pressure.


Nothing scares me as much as people who think our position is somehow inevitable for us as a species. That idea, that we are doomed as a species, is what will stop us from changing our culture to something different.

Nothing makes me feel as doomed as reading threads about how all this is "human nature" and inevitable.


Collapse is inevitable for civilizations. It is not inevitable for other cultures.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Devin » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 20:21:51

In my experience people who are centered and have plenty of supportive/loving relationships don't have such philosophies. If people wish to believe that they are innately and irrevocably flawed, due to this or that variation on Original Sin, they can go right ahead. It doesn't really scare me (what is the fear there? that you will be alone if people don't change their mind?), but I can easily empathize with people who feel that way. I've entertained my share of rather depressing perspectives, and almost all of them have involved getting trapped in philosophical constructs instead of living in the moment.
Last edited by Devin on Thu 10 Apr 2008, 20:22:40, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Devin
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 94
Joined: Mon 07 Apr 2008, 03:00:00

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 20:22:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '[')I can't believe, after YEARS of talking about this, I have to even say this again to you Ibon.

Our culture is not humanity. Civilization is not humanity. It is just one expression of tens of thousands of cultures.


Ludi, I know your beliefs and I incorrectly lumped you into my answer which was to the broader audience of this thread. Sorry for that.

I certainly agree that human cultures up to the Pleistocene where evolving within the ecologies and natural world around them and that agriculture and the emergence of civilization represented a departure from our this path that then lead us to the extremes of disconnect that we experience today. I agree with that. I Also read through the 33 points on the Anthropik link you posted. Can't find very much in there I don't agree with either.

The dismantling of civilization and returning to a Pleistocene existence? Is this possible? Or can the living arrangements and egalitarian non heirarchial cultural attributes that existed with hunter gatherers ever be integrated into civilization as an alternative to dismantling civilization.
Patiently awaiting the pathogens. Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 9572
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 20:31:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
') Or can the living arrangements and egalitarian non heirarchial cultural attributes that existed with hunter gatherers ever be integrated into civilization as an alternative to dismantling civilization.


Sure. Sounds like some neighbourhoods I grew up in.
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 22:16:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ibon', '
')The dismantling of civilization and returning to a Pleistocene existence? Is this possible? Or can the living arrangements and egalitarian non heirarchial cultural attributes that existed with hunter gatherers ever be integrated into civilization as an alternative to dismantling civilization.


Sorry I hollered at you. :)

I don't think we need "return" to anything. In fact, I usually strongly disagree with the position of "returning" or "going back" to a previous way of life. Consider also that non-civilized cultures exist even today, and until a few hundred years ago, were the most prevalent type of culture.

I think the central memes and practices which make civilization, civilization, need to be changed or discarded. So, what we would have ultimately wouldn't be civilization , it would be something else. If humans are to survive as a species, we'll need to find a different way to live that doesn't destroy the Earth's life systems we depend on.
Ludi
 
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Ludi » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 22:21:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Devin', ' ')(what is the fear there? that you will be alone if people don't change their mind?),


No, I don't think it's that. I think it's more that I am afraid they will discard a chance to find a different way to live that won't destroy the Earth's life systems, and that the "humans are flawed" meme will ultimately kill off the human species. So no, it isn't a personal fear, more like fearing for the future of the human species.

I'm already "alone" to a great extent, Devin.

It's not a personal sense of doom, though I have that too, of course (I've posted a great deal about it here). It's a much broader sense of doom. More an overwhelming sense of anger and despair.

Good on you if you've been able to move beyond it. So far, unfortunately, I still care. :-x
Ludi
 
Top

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby alecifel » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 22:55:31

I think the condition is both nature and nurture. Even outside the "modern western" megaloconsumption, every human being seems to be innately obsessed with overcoming scarcity. A lot of animals have this compulsion. Squirrels, for instance. This is probably the result of some ancient event that nearly extincted the species.

There is nothing inherently wrong with wanting to accumulate a store of goods to pass on to your descendants. This didn't become harmful until the advent of market capitalism, which divorced the practical "saving" mentality from any organic context. This "kudzu ape" (what I would call "wildass ape") behavior is all thanks to Adam Smith, the discovery of coal/oil/natural gas, and the very clever ingenuity of millions of people.

It can be saved by developing a new ethic. We need, as a civilized people, to pursue a different kind of growth. Sort of a Zen pursuit, for perfection rather than quantity... reduce population, increase thriftiness, pursuit of a better environment, etc. What drives the object of peoples' ambitions? Whatever a society holds up as an ideal. So change the ideals, change the definitions of "success", and you will change the outcome.

Time sure is getting short, though.

Ludi, cute chick. Mine all feathered out and they're still pretty but I miss my little yellow fluffies.
Nick J. Allen
Hilton, Oklahoma

"The Chinese have many hells. This one is the hell of valueless currency." -- J. Albertson
User avatar
alecifel
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 166
Joined: Thu 02 Feb 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Luther, OK

Re: The Enemy

Unread postby Devin » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 07:21:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Devin', ' ')(what is the fear there? that you will be alone if people don't change their mind?)


No, I don't think it's that. I think it's more that I am afraid they will discard a chance to find a different way to live that won't destroy the Earth's life systems, and that the "humans are flawed" meme will ultimately kill off the human species. So no, it isn't a personal fear, more like fearing for the future of the human species.

I'm already "alone" to a great extent.


It not being a personal fear doesn't really make sense to me. I struggle to even conceptualize things as abstract as "the future of the human species", let alone fear for such a concept. I get hung up on the definitions of future, human, species and all that. Are you visualizing anything in particular when you talk of "the future" and "the Earth's life systems"? (Children, perhaps?) Not trying to analyze here, just trying to relate.

I can definitely relate to feeling alone, and one of my greatest fears is that this will be a permanent thing: that my endeavors toward direct relationships with that which brings me life ("food", "freedom", "community") are going to end up isolating me even further from social interaction with other humans. That's why I asked the question, because that's one of my greatest struggles -- I have difficulty letting go of other people that integrate themselves further and further into a society I withdraw from more and more.


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', 'o')verwhelming sense of anger and despair

I can definitely relate here too. Lacking a grand narrative about the world that tells you everything is going to be alright (even if it sucks right now) is pretty disconcerting. When I discovered that such narratives were bald-faced lies, after having believed in many variations on that theme, I was pretty fucking angry. Haha, I still have the earnest, urgent diatribes I wrote on my livejournal when I found out about peakoil... and the despairing entries I wrote when everyone ignored me and went on their merry way. :roll:

This culture teaches us that meaning is to be found in the future, thus if we have no future our lives are meaningless in the present. I still remember getting chills as I read an essay by Alfie Kohn and heard him describe my life and the life of my friends. It was November of 2004 not long after I'd turned 17:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Alfie Kohn', 'C')onsider those parents who essentially mortgage their children's present to the future, sacrificing what might bring meaning or enjoyment -- or even produce higher-quality learning -- in a ceaseless effort to prepare the children for Harvard (a process I have come to call "Preparation H"). This bottom line is never far from the minds of such parents, who weigh every decision about what their children do in school, or even after school, against the yardstick of what it might contribute to future success. They are not raising a child so much as living resume. As repellent as we might find the corporate groups and politicians who regard education -- and even children themselves -- as little more than an "investment," these parents are doing the dirty work implied by this reductive world view, and they are doing it to their own children.

Before long, the children internalize this quest and come to see their childhood as one long period of getting ready: they sign up for activities that might impress an admissions committee, ignoring (perhaps eventually losing sight of) what they personally find interesting in the here and now. They ask teachers, "Do we need to know this?" and grimly try to squeeze out another few points to bolster their grade-point averages (GPAs) or SAT scores. What they don't know, for their parents surely will not tell them, is that this straining toward the future, this poisonous assumption that the value of everything is solely a function of its contribution to something that might come later, will continue right through college, right through professional school, right through the early stages of a career, until at last they wake up in a tastefully appointed bedroom to discover that their lives are mostly gone.


I cried. [smilie=icon_cry.gif] I didn't need to wait until I was middle-aged to wake up and discover that my life was mostly gone. It'd already happened, my life already WAS mostly gone. And as time passed I realized that school was just the tip of the iceberg. I'd spent my entire waking life preparing for a future that was never going to come, being socialized into a culture that damn near sucked the life out of me completely.

It's pretty devastating to realize the magnitude of bullshit that comes from this culture, and how much suffering and pain it has led to in us and in others. Facing and recovering from this is a life journey and we absolutely cannot do it alone. Thank god I have the support of my parents, and for you the support of your husband, but as we both know this is not enough. For the rest I have been forced to rely on stopgaps like the internet and the part-time friends I've made at various social things like playing on a sports team and going to church.


... As you can see I have little better to do than post on a forum. [smilie=icon_wink.gif] Forgive me if this has gotten too personal or off-topic (... actually, this thread seems to have been in the wrong section from the get-go), but I always find the more personal conversations refreshing.
User avatar
Devin
Peat
Peat
 
Posts: 94
Joined: Mon 07 Apr 2008, 03:00:00
Top

PreviousNext

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest

cron