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The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby whatpeak » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 00:12:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he real problem with oil is not scarcity; it's concentration and, I would argue, carbon, in the sense of global warming gases.


Yes that's what Vijay Vaitheeswaran, correspondent for the Economist magazine says in his conversation on The News Hours with Jim Lehrer.

Economics Writer Examines Oil's Shifting Market Position

This is the first in a series of conversations on the topic.

Mr. Vaitheeswaran doesn't mention depletion once. One can only hope that the other conversations will.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby threadbear » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 00:57:27

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('whatpeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he real problem with oil is not scarcity; it's concentration and, I would argue, carbon, in the sense of global warming gases.


Yes that's what Vijay Vaitheeswaran, correspondent for the Economist magazine says in his conversation on The News Hours with Jim Lehrer.

Economics Writer Examines Oil's Shifting Market Position

This is the first in a series of conversations on the topic.

Mr. Vaitheeswaran doesn't mention depletion once. One can only hope that the other conversations will.


There are several "market" reasons for oil's rising cost, but for someone to over look the idea, that we're likely running low, as well, and the effects are synergizing, is pretty dumb. But then...he is an economist, and so the actual world doesn't probably figure into his calculations. Another idiot.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby thylacine » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 02:21:32

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')nce you change the jalopy, as I call it, the juice will automatically move beyond the one we're using now, which is oil, and we can have the good things that cars provide, while minimizing most of the bad things that we think of associated with cars today.


So if car manufacturers switch to production of Hydrogen cars, for instance, then the Hydrogen Economy will automatically kick in? Maybe if we wear these carved wooden headphones and sit in a bamboo "control tower" the great silver bird will come from the sky and bring cargo??

I'm not sure if it's what he intended, but it all sounds a bit glib, doesn't recognise the problems with alternatives to oil and lets everyone go on thinking that the age of happy motoring will last forever.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ith a hopeful message for those who love their cars, Vijay Vaitheeswaran, thank you very much for being with us.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby yesplease » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 04:36:51

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thylacine', 'I')'m not sure if it's what he intended, but it all sounds a bit glib, doesn't recognise the problems with alternatives to oil and lets everyone go on thinking that the age of happy motoring will last forever.
Like he said$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he old saying in the energy game is the best cure for high prices is high prices.
We'll likely see all sorts of different transportation forms, from vegetable oil grown and used on the farm to power tractors to efficient EVs and maybe even hydrogen vehicles.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')nd the good news is the technology is being developed in Detroit by some of the car companies, but especially in Silicon Valley and even in China and India for the clean car of the future that will use a variety of fuels. It could be electricity. It could be hydrogen. It could be an advanced biofuel.


About those pesky oil alternatives. I've messed around in the car free sub-forum on bikeforums dot net, asking what makes a car a car and a bike a bike. Apparently, streamlined EVs are cars and not bikes. Although, at that point, or even assuming something as large/luxurious as a the Aptera, the cyclist ends up using the same amount of energy to move at a half to a third of the speed, or assuming they have an average diet, ten times more fossil fuel energy than the Aptera since every calorie at the plate requires around ten calories of fossil fuels. Sufficed to say, the Aptera is rather large, so personal streamlined EVs can cut the energy requirements for personal transportation down more.

Clearly, something that uses less energy than a cyclist for transportation in relative comfort at less cumulative cost than a Prius is oh so awful. Run for the hills before it's too late!
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby Mesuge » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 07:00:28

Vijay is a typical sharlatan.. perhaps "bozzo expert" would be a better term for someone openly claiming that SUV is not the problem..

But not to bash PBS completely, there is a forthcomming 4/22/08
new edition of NOVA documentary series called "Car of the future".
According to the list of experts invited this might slip some PO related themes into the audience at large. But obviously the main message "don't worry cars are here to stay" most likely remains. They will show a couple of big EVs charged from home PV system and other contraptions in addition to all those fancy concepts:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/car/
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby peasea » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 07:33:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Mesuge', 'V')ijay is a typical sharlatan.. perhaps "bozzo expert" would be a better term for someone openly claiming that SUV is not the problem..

But not to bash PBS completely, there is a forthcomming 4/22/08
new edition of NOVA documentary series called "Car of the future".
According to the list of experts invited this might slip some PO related themes into the audience at large. But obviously the main message "don't worry cars are here to stay" most likely remains. They will show a couple of big EVs charged from home PV system and other contraptions in addition to all those fancy concepts:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/car/



ofcourse cars are here to stay , just like the congestion tax , all the high oil price will do is keep the peasants off the road!

the super rich will still have theirs , the rest of us will walk , just like the middle ages ( if you're allowed of course....don't forget your permit! :-) )
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby MD » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 07:35:47

"The real problem with oil is not scarcity." - true statement. There are trillions of barrels of the stuff laying about all over the planet.

The real problem is rising price due to investment, production, and maintenance costs that are orders of magnitude higher that they were in the gusher years.

This means a permanent change in the way we use energy. You are watching those changes play out right now.

We are living through the end of the age of the automobile. It's in progress right now, and will continue for a number of years (barring catastrophic events) until energy use patterns adjust to new paradigms.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby Doly » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 09:41:30

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '"')The real problem with oil is not scarcity." - true statement. There are trillions of barrels of the stuff laying about all over the planet.


Scarcity, like most things, is relative.

If we suddenly stopped using oil for fuel completely, there would be more than plenty of oil for all other uses.

But, in our present world, oil is scarce, in the sense that some people (specifically, the poor ones), are not getting as much oil as they used to.

And that isn't going to change anytime soon.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby gollum » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 11:49:11

I think the hot shot economists are missing the rule of suply and demand here, looks like supply is scarcer than demand.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby KingDavid » Thu 10 Apr 2008, 13:13:28

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '
')
About those pesky oil alternatives. I've messed around in the car free sub-forum on bikeforums dot net, asking what makes a car a car and a bike a bike. Apparently, streamlined EVs are cars and not bikes. Although, at that point, or even assuming something as large/luxurious as a the Aptera, the cyclist ends up using the same amount of energy to move at a half to a third of the speed, or assuming they have an average diet, ten times more fossil fuel energy than the Aptera since every calorie at the plate requires around ten calories of fossil fuels. Sufficed to say, the Aptera is rather large, so personal streamlined EVs can cut the energy requirements for personal transportation down more.

Clearly, something that uses less energy than a cyclist for transportation in relative comfort at less cumulative cost than a Prius is oh so awful. Run for the hills before it's too late!

Huh, 10 times more? I know food has a fossil fuel cost but this is absurd. What are your average cyclists eating, steak with caviar and some truffles on top? The aptera's driver needs to eat too, i ponder, or is he hooked on the aptera's battery? And then you have construction and maintenance costs on the side....yesplease, i find this difficult to believe...
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 01:48:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingDavid', 'H')uh, 10 times more? I know food has a fossil fuel cost but this is absurd.
Seven to ten times more based on this.
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('SFgate', 'A')ccording to researchers at the University of Michigan's Center for Sustainable Agriculture, an average of more than 7 calories of fossil fuel is burned up for every calorie of energy we get from our food. This means that in eating my 400-calorie breakfast, I will, in effect, have consumed 2,800 calories of fossil fuel energy. (Some researchers claim the ratio is as high as 10 to 1.)


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingDavid', 'W')hat are your average cyclists eating, steak with caviar and some truffles on top?
Oh jeez, that'd be ~20-100:1, or as bad as driving a car.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingDavid', 'T')he aptera's driver needs to eat too, i ponder, or is he hooked on the aptera's battery?
The Aptera driver needs to eat whatever they would eat to maintain their weight during their daily routine. The cyclist needs that plus the food needed to move themselves, and quite a bit of air, along for their commute. If, they somehow manage to have a diet that's very low in fossil fuels, say for instance, they eat vegetarian, they're still only get half the equivalent mileage of the Aptera, about 440mpg equivalent for the Aptera compared to around 200mpg equivalent for the vegetarian cyclist.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('KingDavid', 'A')nd then you have construction and maintenance costs on the side....yesplease, i find this difficult to believe...Construction costs would be the largest difference. Although I'm fairly sure that given the ten to one, or seven to one, ratio of fossil fuel use during operation, this would be amortized over the life of the vehicle. Since there are no oil changes, filter changes, emissions systems, etc... (quite a long, and possibly expensive list as you likely know) maintenance costs are a fraction of what they would be with a vehicle powered by an ICE. Since the average car has embodied energy equal to about 15% of the energy used to move it around [1], gets about 20mpg [1], is about nine years old [2], travels about 10,000 miles per year [3], and as a result has an embodied energy of ~25,000kWh, an Aptera at half the size of the average auto, would have an embodied energy of around 12,000kWh. At a 10:1 diet, the Aptera would need ~13,000 miles to break even with a cyclist, a 7:1 diet would require about 20,000 miles to amortize it's embodied energy compared to a cyclist, and compared to a vegetarian cyclist, it would need ~120,000 miles to amortize the initial energy investment. Although, vegetarians aren't exactly common, and in terms of frequency an equal comparison would probably be an Aptera owner with a solar panel system on their roof, which would drop that figure significantly.

Given that fossil fuel use is endemic in the US, and that most bicycles are incredibly inefficient due to incredibly high drag coefficients/reference areas compared to weight/capabilities, an individual driving an Aptera charged with electricity from the grid would likely use less total energy than a cyclist with an average diet. With a vegetarian diet it would be much closer, although IME I would still likely use less with an Aptera, but given the cost a homebrew electrified velomobile would likely use even less and definitely cost far less, albeit at the cost of safety, speed, and comfort, possibly social status if I subscribed to such things, that's likely the route I would go should gas hit and sustain ~$12/gallon.

[1]http://ublib.buffalo.edu/libraries/projects/cases/footprint/calculations%20transportation.html
[2]http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Passenger_vehicles_in_the_United_States#Age_of_vehicles_in_operation
[3]http://www.ridetowork.org/transportation-fact-sheet
Last edited by yesplease on Fri 11 Apr 2008, 17:22:13, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby yesplease » Fri 11 Apr 2008, 02:21:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'W')e are living through the end of the age of the automobile. It's in progress right now, and will continue for a number of years (barring catastrophic events) until energy use patterns adjust to new paradigms.
The age of the automobile ended a long time ago, we call 'em cars now. ;) But seriously, I wouldn't say the end of the automobile, since it's simply a mode of private enclosed personal transportation. Given that the average automobile is about twenty times smaller than a fully loaded semi, but only gets about two and a half times the mileage, I'd say we have a ways to go in terms of the efficiency of personal transportation.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby Starvid » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 19:52:46

The real problem with oil is not scarcity - it's price. :wink:
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby cube » Mon 14 Apr 2008, 21:19:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', '"')The real problem with oil is not scarcity." - true statement. There are trillions of barrels of the stuff laying about all over the planet.

The real problem is rising price due to investment, production, and maintenance costs that are orders of magnitude higher that they were in the gusher years.
"LoneSnark" would of LOVED this economic op ed; too bad he's not around anymore to enjoy it. Truthfully I do NOT miss him.....ha ha.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MD', 'W')e are living through the end of the age of the automobile. It's in progress right now,...
well not quite. What's literally happening right now is the airline industry (more specifically domestic carriers) being grounded down into the basement. As for the private automobile well give it another 40 years. But hey, what's 40 years for an event that will effect the fate of humanity for the next 12 million years or whatever how long it takes nature to produce another batch of oil. :wink:
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Re: The real problem with oil is not scarcity

Unread postby whereagles » Tue 15 Apr 2008, 05:50:30

Agree scarcity isn't the main problem, although the fact that supply is limited IS the one and only source of all problems... (hum.. did that sound like a logical sentence??? lol)

Most forecasts put global URR at 2+ tera-barrels, of which we used about 1 only, so there should be plenty left. Trouble is side effects, like gradual loss of rate of flow due to depletion and non-conventional sources being harder to process. And then you have global warming causing further distress and, of course, escalating price.
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