[lexicon]

I have seen a number of charts detailing the number of countries whose oil PRODUCTION has peaked. Specifically, Richard Heinberg did a great job listing them in The Party's Over to spell out when he believed Peak Oil would occur. I was just wondering if there are still any countries that have not reached their peak of oil discovery yet. I know Brazil recently had a big discovery. Has Brazil, or any other country, not hit their oil discovery peak?

[KingM]

Given that new technology might allow the Bakken alone to boost US reserves 10 fold, you might add the US to this list, unpopular as that will be on PO.com.

[Tyler_JC]

No country will ever stop finding new oil. So in one respect we will never hit the "peak" of discovery.

When humans discovered Antarctica we hit the peak of continent discovery but did we ever have a peak rate of continent discovery?

Lots of countries have peaked at the rate at which they are discovering new conventional oil reserves but when you include reserve growth, enhanced recovery, unconventional resources, etc. it becomes difficult to measure.

I don't think you are going to find a satisfactory answer to that question.

[funzone36]

Is it conventional or unconventional oil fields? If it's conventional then it's likely that virtually all countries have reached peak discovery. I hardly pay attention to unconventional oil fields. They don't matter in my view.

[Fishman]

Your question was discovery peak, peak being the maximum number of barrels or finds in a year, the US peaked on discoveries back in the 30s I think, the World in the 70s. This data will be harder to get in other countries.
KingM, I believe your comments when production tops the 70s, so with all this technology why hasn't the US bumped up production dramaticly? Talk is just talk and market manipulation unless you produce. To misquote Tom Cruise "show me the oil"

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('lexicon', 'I') have seen a number of charts detailing the number of countries whose oil PRODUCTION has peaked. Specifically, Richard Heinberg did a great job listing them in The Party's Over to spell out when he believed Peak Oil would occur. I was just wondering if there are still any countries that have not reached their peak of oil discovery yet. I know Brazil recently had a big discovery. Has Brazil, or any other country, not hit their oil discovery peak?

[lexicon]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'N')o country will ever stop finding new oil. So in one respect we will never hit the "peak" of discovery.

[Tyler_JC]

The 40 year time lag is a coincidence, not the result of some geological or economic factor.

I am willing to concede that global oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s with the discovery of the big Middle East fields.

But discoveries of new fields is not the only thing to consider. We also discover ways of getting more oil out of existing fields.

Is it "new" oil if we find out how to extract more from an old "depleted" field?

I don't know how to classify that. Anyone have any ideas?

[BigTex]

Antarctica has not yet reached peak discovery.

As far as I know it's currently at zero.

(I don't know if Antarctica is a country or not--never really thought about it).

Picture an enormous oil discovery below the ice. Picture hot oil blowing out the casing and flooding a vast area between the ground and the bottom of the ice. Picture the oil lubricating the bottom of the ice until an enormous sheet of ice just slides off the continent into the ocean, followed by hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude, creating an enormous tsunami.

That would be a real Beavis and Butthead moment there.

[rockdoc123]

my short list of where you will see significant discoveries compared to that countries current endowment:
Peru
Colombia
Norway (Barents Sea has significant potential)
Bangladesh (offshore underexplored with recent discoveries adjacent in India)
Greenland
Alaska NW NPRA
Libya
Iraq (western zone is underexplored)
Iran (several basins are almost completely unexplored)
Russian offshore areas (Barents, Timmon Pechora, Kara)

[KingM]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Fishman', '
')KingM, I believe your comments when production tops the 70s, so with all this technology why hasn't the US bumped up production dramaticly? Talk is just talk and market manipulation unless you produce. To misquote Tom Cruise "show me the oil"

[Fishman]

Point taken KingM. But any technology that increases "reserves" that are not accessible or the ERORI makes them worthless to obtain doesn't do us much good does it? Kind of a DUHH moment.

[Fishman]

Point taken KingM. But any technology that increases "reserves" that are not accessible or the ERORI makes them worthless to obtain doesn't do us much good does it? Kind of a DUHH moment.

[KingM]

Actually, I think that's perfect. Imagine if all the world's oil were in a tank that you could draw down at any rate you wanted. First cold day, we'd light the whole damn thing on fire to keep our tomatoes from freezing. No more oil.

A big resource with a limited draw is what we need to cushion the downslope of peak oil. If we're still pumping/making 50 million barrels a day in a hundred years it will mean that we've probably survived peak and moved to something else. If we're only burning 50 million in ten years we're screwed.

[TheDude]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tyler_JC', 'T')he 40 year time lag is a coincidence, not the result of some geological or economic factor.

I am willing to concede that global oil discoveries peaked in the 1960s with the discovery of the big Middle East fields.

[copious.abundance]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I') see OilFinder(2?) noted this one on page 5 of this thread. As has been repeatedly pointed out he likes to post the OOIP figures from these announcements, instead of URR. It remains to be seen whether these will be more than the respective nations' equivalent of Prudhoe.

[Moped]

New Zealand has yet to pump any significant oil, but indications are good that at least three promising regions will yield reasonably large discoveries over the next decade. Its no conincidence that China cut its first free trade deal with NZ recently, behind the hype thats all about energy and access to Antartica.

The first (great southern basin) exploration tender was secured by Exxon Mobil, a US company, it'll be very interesting to see who gets the next one. If its China or Russia will the yanks get pissed?

[Gerben]

Cambodja is probably not at peak discovery. Maybe some more countries in the region. Also there are a few African countries where exploration has only recently started.