[Pops]

I heard on NPR that some pollster decided the thing worrying Americans the most about the economy was the price of energy.

No real surprise there but what does intrigue me are the increasing numbers of stories I've read about Sustainability Schools at big colleges, one after another Green Programs rolled out by utilities and local and state governments, walkable neighborhoods, carbon neutral this and low impact that.

Sure, lots of folks are underwater on their mortgage and over their heads in debt, as a resultl ots of others are getting hurt on their investments and many more have seen a long term decline in real disposable income...

But...
The majority are still keeping up with the bills and have quite a bit of fat left to trim and will see an ever increasing incentive to reduce their energy costs.

My topic is not whether any or all of these approaches will make any difference in the long run energy wise but whether or not the Next Big Thing will be Green.

Prognosticate away ye economic gurus!

[emersonbiggins]

I've yet to see a holistic understanding of "sustainable building" in the architectural field. As it stands, LEED is the standard for assessing whether or not a building meets certain "green" criteria, but it's a points-awarded system where the placement of a building in car-bound suburbia is weighted as equally (1 pt., actually) as if it utilized some sort of stormwater recycling system, a tragic oversight, IMHO.

Therefore, we get LEED-silver rated buildings that are no more "sustainable" without their accessory cheaply-fueled automobile networks than the big-box retailer located next door.

Yay for hubris!

[joeltrout]

I don't remember it myself (since I was born in 1982) but I have heard my parents and other oil and gas industry partners talk about the push for renewables in the late 70s and 80s. Which gave the oil industry a scare. History has repeated itself. But then prices took a sharp turn down and all those renewable cheerleaders stopped.

I am bullish on long-term oil prices due to increased demand and lower production. But I was wondering how low would oil prices have to fall in order to trip up the renewable push now? My second question is will the price of oil ever dip that low to bust the green bubble?

joeltrout

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'B')ut I was wondering how low would oil prices have to fall in order to trip up the renewable push now? My second question is will the price of oil ever dip that low to bust the green bubble?

joeltrout

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('joeltrout', 'B')ut I was wondering how low would oil prices have to fall in order to trip up the renewable push now? My second question is will the price of oil ever dip that low to bust the green bubble?

joeltrout

[Tyler_JC]

One of the VCs I talked to said the nightmare scenario is $60 or lower oil.

At that level, most of the enterprises he's been investing in would fall apart.

However, he believes that oil prices will never drop lower than $75 thanks to the rise of China and India as major oil consumers.

If we see a return to oil in the $50 range, many of the current green energy projects will be hard to justify.

Wind power will survive because it's not in competition with oil but many of the alternative fuel projects simply don't make sense at $2/gallon gasoline.

[MrMambo]

I think it is starting to look red hot already! I live in Norway and I came across this Oslo-based venture fund that used to be in IT and the Oil-sector.

Currently all their top investments are solar tech.

http://www.convexa.com/default.aspx?aid=9113710

The Norwegian silicon wafer company REC had an IPO quite recently and raised more than a billion dollars. They are currently starting a 4-5 billion dollar factory investment in Singapore to mass produce silicon wafers.


You see wind and solar are hot.
Electic cars are hot.
Windmills are hot
Fuel efficency and low energy buildings are hot.
Railroads are hot.

But a couple of "green" investments are seeming less hot and are getting a lot of negative attentions and with good reason.

Corn based ethanol
The hydrogen economy

But still we se more investment in the old paradigm, search for oil, coal power plants.

This bubble, if that is the correct word is going to be a 3-5 decade bull market with occational financial crisis and bursts.. But the fundamentals for this change is so strong: Resource depletion, Climate change, Eco system breakdowns.

We basically have no choice but to have a green bubble with occational periods of "overinvestments" or "malinvestments", but still investments that will serve a bigger picture in the longer term. That is why green is the safest bet going forward.

[Newfie]

Pops,

You read Harpers? Last months cover story was just this. Seems the guy thinks that because we have had a trade deficit since something like 1977 the FIRE (Finance, Insurance, RealEstate) gurus need to keep pumping the economy with bubbles.

DOT Com - pop
Housing - pop
Green - swell

Obviously I'm grossly simplifying. But it is a good read. He thinks that bubble will pop in about 5 years as I recall.

Here is a teaser, need to subscribe to get full article.
http://www.harpers.org/archive/2008/02/0081908

[BigTex]

Hydrogen in the early-2000s was the opening act.

People will look back on that that and say WHY DIDN'T I PAY MORE ATTENTION?

The human imagination has a persistent habit of leaving on flights of fancy without remembering to bring along reality.

The green energyists will be the alchemists of the future.

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Newfie', 'P')ops,

You read Harpers?

[MrBill]

A self-hedging portfolio would be well-managed coal related technology companies and power generators, along with an equal investment in expensive alternative energy companies with dubious technology and uncertain financial prospects. That way no matter which way the wind blows - or if it blows - half of your portfolio will outperform. Got Betamax? ; - ))

[GeoJAP]

I currently believe the next bubble will be commodities.

[Revi]

Is it a bubble when the value of the dollar is going down too? Maybe these green tech companies are coming up just because the value of their product, measured in dollars is up. I bought ESLR about 3 years ago for about what it's going for now. I haven't made any money on it so far.

They are building a new facility in Massachusetts, and it looks good for them. The string ribbon technology uses much less silicon.

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080407/20080407005778.html?.v=1

I would like to see the green bubble puff up a bit more, thank you.