[Pretorian]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Tanada', 'N')ah its simple really, we feed the Corn to the SUV and the Rice to the pigs and then the people who want to eat have to pony up more cash.

[Zardoz]

These three stories ran in the Los Angeles Times this morning:

A 'perfect storm' of hunger

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]The U.N.'s World Food Program is struggling as costs of food and fuel skyrocket while the numbers of people needing help surge across the globe. Millions are in danger.

For 15 years, he's been a "grocer" for Africa's destitute. But he's never seen anything like this.

Pascal Joannes' job is to find grains, beans and oils to fill a food basket for Sudan's neediest people, from Darfur refugees to schoolchildren in the barren south.

Lately Joannes has spent less time shopping and more time poring over commodity price lists, usually in disbelief.

"White beans at $1,160," the white-haired Belgian, 52, cries in despair over the price of a metric ton. "Complete madness! I bought them two years ago in Ethiopia for $235."

Joannes is head of procurement in Sudan for the World Food Program, the United Nations agency in charge of alleviating world hunger.

Meteoric food and fuel prices, a slumping dollar, the demand for biofuels and a string of poor harvests have combined to abruptly multiply WFP's operating costs, even as needs increase. In other words, if the number of needy people stayed constant, it would take much more money to feed them. But the number of people needing help is surging dramatically. It is what WFP Executive Director Josette Sheeran calls "a perfect storm" hitting the world's hungry.

The agency last month issued an emergency appeal for money to cover a shortfall tallied at more than half a billion dollars and growing. It said it might have to reduce food rations or cut people off altogether.

[Pretorian]

That's called LIFE Zardo! Get used to it.

[Ferretlover]

The famine factor of the dieoff is picking up speed...

[sparky]

.

Dohboy when I Wrote

"the melting arctic ice qualifying in the " it can wait tomorrow , there are bigger things" category"

LOL!

I didn't meant it was a small problem
I meant the structure of government is totally useless for anticipating a crisis with action , as opposed to talking about it ,
politicians are essentially reactive
the food crisis is here and now , any other crisis no matter how large will have to wait in the queue or thump people into action ,

the arctic is a far away place and seals don't vote

.

[Hawkcreek]

--

[shortonoil]

Here is a letter that was sent to Urban Survival: http://urbansurvival.com/week.htm


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')hen I got this really interesting email about UG99 wheat rust:

"Hi George: If you figure out who, what and where, I am, keep it to yourself.

The best article is the farmandranchguide. I included some old sat. photos of how dust is moving around the planet. The one of Gobi Desert dust landing in Colorado, is particularly important. The rust has already spread globally. It will take about two years to fully become threatening. Once the spores reproduce, they will infest those areas for decades. Also note, the rust kills oats, barley and wheat. Few populations will be spared. Beer could also become expensive (there are severe restrictions on using fungicides on barley/hops, the residues kill the yeast).

There are some fungicides that can prevent or suppress the fungus, but those areas that are the most vulnerable, are least able to afford the cure. With so much of the global population dependent on 5-10 acre plots, they will be unable to utilize "modern technology as a North American farmer looking at $600 profits/acre. Spending $25 an acre is possible logistically and economically. That amount is insurmountable to a Pakistani farmer.

There exists a belief that Monsanto, Dupont and others, have nefarious reasons for including "suicide genes" into their proprietary seed strains. I personally know why they do it. It is business, not conspiracy. Let me explain.

I personally worked for several years, doing one very small part, in developing what was the world's best rice herbicide. We spent altogether, $230 million and 6 years bringing it to market. It was the most effective and safest discovered to date.

Consider developing a chemical that selectively kills only certain weeds or insects, while being able to spread it over large areas of the environment, on the very things people will eat, it is scientifically challenging beyond belief.

The herbicide was a money maker for sure. And of course we wanted to sell it in China. China stipulated that to sell it there, it had to be made there. Ok. So we built a plant. The workers (selected by the Chinese gov.), worked like dogs for 6 months. Then one day, nobody showed up for work.

Two weeks later, they were building "their" plant to make our chemicals that they had reversed engineered. They worked just long enough to steal everything they needed. They did not have time or money invested, so they undercut our price and drove us out of the country.

Again, I have worked helping to develop GMO seeds. If you do not include a "suicide gene", they just steal the hybrid. As you have said, the Global Business Environment is not a level playing field. If we steal from them, they sue us in our own courts. We are unable to do the same back. Separate case.

We have another well known product which we intentionally left out some key information in the patent. Sure enough, the Russians, Japanese and Chinese all reversed engineered the patent. They marketed their (ours) product as proof we were price gouging. Shortly afterward, theirs started to fail during use. All three went bankrupt and we ended up with a monopoly.

We also doubled our prices. Our little way of saying "f* you". Let me point out, we spent 23 years developing that product. That's right, 23 years. Little hard on the ATOI. (*methinks he meant ROI as we all know ATOI is ASCII to integer conversion in C++ - G)

Some background. I've spent 24 years doing Ag research, 12 of it doing Environmental Modeling of all economically relevant agriculture areas (globally). I looked at primarily Off-Target Impact of pesticides. This is how I learned about Global Warming before it became a buzz word. It is also why I put it all on the line, to jump into Fuel Cell research (reaction kinetics modeling), where I put in 6 years.. Bad move, different story.

Forget CO2 and global warming, it ain't us, but did not know it at the time. I still keep my hand in the modeling part. Which is why your time monks might be seeing a little of what I'm seeing. I think it is going to get real hungry out there, starting next year. (<----!!!!!! Note this point seriously!!!!! - G)

1. Severe food shortages in about two years.

2. The weak link in the food chain is not what you think. You'll have to "Google" it. Start with "Grain Elevators, bankrupt". They use Bridge Loans (credit) to buy billions of dollars worth of grain each year.

Extrapolate this out to cattle feed lots (what do you think 100K head and feed cost x 1K feed lots).

The credit is no longer there and you may see global famine, while bumper crops rot in the fields. The credit is from lower and mid-tier local banks.

3. One bushel of wheat for one barrel of oil (Yep)

4. Commodity futures sounds swell, until the other side can not cover and walks on you.

Hey! Got your garden planted yet?"

Holy smokes! Keep us posted - contributions are welcome from this first class thinker any time! Meantime, make a note on your calendar to short any diet companies in 2009. World's going to take over that sector and obsolete it.

[AirlinePilot]

Lovely Short, just lovely.

Our hubris apparently knows no bounds.

[shortonoil]

AirlinePilot said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ovely Short, just lovely.

Our hubris apparently knows no bounds.

[Schneider]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('shortonoil', '[')b]AirlinePilot said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'L')ovely Short, just lovely.

Our hubris apparently knows no bounds.

[shortonoil]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t seem interesting..Could you give us some small insights on what you will be posting please ?

[Tuike]

Hoarding of rice has begun.

Police to stop Philippines rice hoarding

Rice prices expected to climb on speculation Thailand to cut exports

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld rice prices may be set for another sharp spike with leading exporter Thailand expected to cut supplies starting this month. Domestic prices of the staple have surged 50 percent since January, and Thai farmers are reported to be hoarding rice on hopes of further increases, traders said Wednesday.

[Zardoz]

Global response needed on food crisis: Zoellick

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')orld Bank President Robert Zoellick on Wednesday called for a new coordinated global response to deal with spiraling food prices exacerbating shortages, hunger and malnutrition around the globe.

Speaking ahead of International Monetary Fund and World Bank meetings in Washington next week, Zoellick said the global food crisis now required the attention of political leaders in every country, since higher prices and price volatility were likely to stay for some time.

The crisis also highlighted the need to conclude a long-awaited deal in the Doha global trade talks, which would cut distorting agricultural subsidies and open markets for food imports.

"We need a new deal for global food policy," Zoellick said. "This new deal should focus not only on hunger and malnutrition, access to food and its supply, but also the interconnections with energy, yields, climate change, investment, the marginalization of women and others, and economic resiliency and growth."

[Novus]

Thailand is said to be the Saudi Arabia of rice and they have just stopped all exports. I wouldn't be surprised if they get invaded for this.

[DomusAlbion]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Novus', 'T')hailand is said to be the Saudi Arabia of rice and they have just stopped all exports. I wouldn't be surprised if they get invaded for this.

[shortonoil]

The Seventh Horseman rides??
$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')A deadly fungus, known as Ug99, which kills wheat, has likely spread to Pakistan from Africa according to reports. If true, that threatens the vital Asian Bread Basket including the Punjab region. The spread of the deadly virus, stem rust, against which an effective fungicide does not exist, comes as world grain stocks reach the lowest in four decades and government subsidized bio-ethanol production, especially in the USA, Brazil and EU are taking land out of food production at alarming rates. The deadly fungus is being used by Monsanto and the US Government to spread patented GMO seeds.

[Zardoz]

Ug99

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')n the 1950s, the last major outbreak destroyed 40% of the spring wheat crop in North America. At that time governments started a major effort to breed resistant wheat plants, led by Norman Borlaug of the Rockefeller Foundation. That was the misnamed Green Revolution. The result today is far fewer varieties of wheat that might resist such a new fungus outbreak.

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', '
')
What's his point here? Is he saying that we should just let Ug99 have its way with us?

[Johnvancouver]

“Bloomberg, April 3, 2008: Rice climbed to a record and corn traded near its highest ever on speculation food demand will outstrip supply as governments curb exports to prevent unrest.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... =worldwide

Is this the beginning of the end of global free trade?

[dohboi]

Well...of course global free trade was never anything of the sort.

But, yes, this looks like it is staring to greatly restrict massive trade in basic food stuffs, which was never a good idea in the first place. It just encouraged population growth in places with inadequate agriculture to support the local pop.

The adjustments at this point are going to be...painful is such an understatement.

Sparky, my apologies if I misunderstood. I certainly agree with your points.

Keep in mind though that this crisis has many sources, one of them almost certainly GW. Rice is very sensitive to changes in temperature.

The spread of increased (grain-fed) meat consumption, in imitation of Western diets, is also one of the causes.

I bet there is a lot of starvation from this going on already in China that we are not seeing. They want only happy images leading up to their first Olympics!