[PeakingAroundtheCorner]

Per CNBC 100.50 -5.12

This is part of a broader commodities sell-off. This despite recent bad news regarding import sources and India's shortfall. Wonder if this is just profit-taking?

[NeoPeasant]

The dropping oil price will quite predictably generate enthusiasm about economic growth, which will raise demand estimates, which will raise the price of oil, which will generate pessimism about economic growth, which will lower demand estimates, which will lower the price of oil.
And so on and so on and so on...

[Cashmere]

ee

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'T')he dropping oil price will quite predictably generate enthusiasm about economic growth, .

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cashmere', 'J')
Don't forget, a little research will generally reveal that most of these idiots who claim that commodities, and oil in particular, will go bust have a track record that includes cheerleading the 99 Nasdaq and the 05 housing bubble.
.
.

[firestarter]

Commodities dropping across the board because of massive deleveraging. Equities are relatively strong on short squeezing. ST govt debt rallying hard as "safe haven". Nothing bullish here outside of fear and panic,.

[mefistofeles]

Markets always adjust and change so far oil has been stuck in the $100-$101 range. Is it low? Not by not any means considering the fact that we started the year at $90/ a barrel.

Also let's not forget that news agencies need something to talk about.

Even if oil prices are a "bubble" (which is something that I don't subscribe to) bubbles aren't just a slope upwards they drop occaisionally and even move sidewards(this is where I think they are now).

Although I'm not a technical trader I think oil has to trade a certain "floor" for some period of time before establishing a base for further price increases. I really look at the current situation as more of consolidation that will set the stage for the next upward movement.

Another thing is summer. The summer driving season will begin and soon people will begin using A/C in their homes.

Also let's not forget China. The Chinese refiners are actually exporting more oil now because of prices controls. When fuel prices controls are lifted in China the oil markets are probably in for a violent shock as China begins to import higher levels of crude and finished product.

Although I'm not an oil analyst I think we are setting the stage for another fast and violent upward run in prices. Complaceny is the one factor that will do more than anything to create the next upward run.

As people are lulled into a false sense of stability I think the drive for conservation/hoarding will wain and this false security will be prevade the market. This is what really sets the stage for high oil prices: complacency.

[TreeFarmer]

If I remember correctly the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund is up 880% in the last 10 years and around 400% in the last 5 years. It would be hard to imagine much continued growth on top of that without first taking a good breather or having at least a modest retreat.

One thing I have to wonder about is how much of the runup in commodities prices is due to all the extra money that seemed to exist thanks to the housing bubble. As that funny-money disappears will it deflate commodities?

I guess time will tell...

TF

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mefistofeles', '
')Also let's not forget China. The Chinese refiners are actually exporting more oil now because of prices controls. When fuel prices controls are lifted in China the oil markets are probably in for a violent shock as China begins to import higher levels of crude and finished product.

[threadbear]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TreeFarmer', 'I')f I remember correctly the Vanguard Precious Metals and Mining fund is up 880% in the last 10 years and around 400% in the last 5 years. It would be hard to imagine much continued growth on top of that without first taking a good breather or having at least a modest retreat.

One thing I have to wonder about is how much of the runup in commodities prices is due to all the extra money that seemed to exist thanks to the housing bubble. As that funny-money disappears will it deflate commodities?

I guess time will tell...

TF

[Gerben]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'W')hy will they lift price controls?

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('NeoPeasant', 'T')he dropping oil price will quite predictably generate enthusiasm about economic growth, which will raise demand estimates, which will raise the price of oil, which will generate pessimism about economic growth, which will lower demand estimates, which will lower the price of oil.
And so on and so on and so on...