[DantesPeak]

The NY Times offers its explanations. Perhaps the most alarming part is that there are almost no more reserves and demand exceeds supplies every year, since governments have wisely decided not to prepare for the future.

Let's see if demand>supply then grim reaper>anarky321 & third world, and finally, mutant virus + four horsemen = first world food shortages.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')igh Rice Cost Creating Fears of Asia Unrest


By KEITH BRADSHER
Published: March 29, 2008


Several factors are contributing to the steep rice in prices. Rising affluence in India and China has increased demand. At the same time, drought and other bad weather have reduced output in Australia and elsewhere. Many rice farmers are turning to more lucrative cash crops, reducing the amount of land devoted to the grain. And urbanization and industrialization have cut into the land devoted to rice cultivation.

In Vietnam, an obscure plant virus has caused annual output to start leveling off; it had increased significantly each year until the last three years.

Until the last few years, the potential for rapid price swings was damped by the tendency of many governments to hold very large rice stockpiles to ensure food security, said Sushil Pandey, an agricultural economist at the International Rice Research Institute in Manila.

But those stockpiles were costly to maintain. So governments have been drawing them down as world rice consumption has outstripped production for most of the last decade.

[thor]

Why do Asians tend to only eat rise anyway? Potato has served us pretty well over the centuries.

[Jenab6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'G')lobal supplies tumble, sparking protests, hurting aid agencies
MANILA, Philippines - Philippine activists warn about possible riots. Aid agencies across Asia worry how they will feed the hungry. Governments dig deeper every day to fund subsidies.
A sharp rise in the price of rice is hitting consumer pocketbooks and raising fears of public turmoil in the many parts of Asia where rice is a staple.
Part of a surge in global food costs, rice prices on world markets have jumped 50 percent in the past two months and at least doubled since 2004. Experts blame rising fuel and fertilizer expenses as well as crops curtailed by disease, pests and climate change. There are concerns prices could rise a further 40 percent in coming months. …
Stock up while you can

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'H')igh Rice Cost Creating Fears of Asia Unrest
In Vietnam, an obscure plant virus has caused annual output to start leveling off; it had increased significantly each year until the last three years.

[anarky321]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thor', 'W')hy do Asians tend to only eat rise anyway? Potato has served us pretty well over the centuries.

[DantesPeak]

This thread needs a new title: India raises rice prices more than 200%!

Plus cuts off some oil exports for good measure. Thanks India!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')ndia stops uel export to Bangladesh
Internet Edition. March 30, 2008


State-owned Indian Oil Companies (IOC) has cancelled petroleum exports to Bangladesh, which was settled under an agreement signed with Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation (BPC). The decision came after the Government of India increased cost of per ton exportable rice from $320 to $1000.

The Indian state company has justified its stand, saying the company doesn't have adequate stock. Currently, Bangladesh imports total 120,000 tons of fuel from India.

Confirming the news, BPC officials have informed that Bangladesh has signed a contract with IOC in January 2008 to import at least 120,000 tons of fuel. Under the contract, the first shipment of 10,000 tons of diesel was scheduled to arrive at the end of March or early April 2008 through river route. But, by this stand, Indian petroleum supply became uncertain, said the official.

"This cut-off of Indian petroleum supply could have negative impact over our local petroleum reserve," said an energy expert.

Though this action is not likely to have immediate impact over Bangladeshi oil market, it might affect our national petroleum reserves.

According to the oil import statistics of BPC, import of Indian oil is financially beneficial for Bangladesh as its transportation cost is considerably lower than the imports from Middle East and Europe.

It may be mentioned that the IOC sent a letter recently to the BPC office, stating that it would not be possible on its part to export fuel to Bangladesh for the time being as it itself is importing oil to meet domestic demand.

[anarky321]

this confirms my suspicion that Bangladesh is f***ed

[shortonoil]

Ferretlover said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')NOTHER plant virus?? First wheat, then rice. Is corn next?

[patience]

Jenab6, Better get that stuff in thefreezer for a couple weeks, or gas it with ntrogen, co2, argon, mig gas(75%AR, 25% co2), lest you find out the hard way how long it takes bugs to hatch in it.

[Ferretlover]

Would that be for both the rice and peas, Patience?
I'm planning to get some 50 lb bags of rice on Monday.

[FourOfSwords]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'J')enab6, Better get that stuff in thefreezer for a couple weeks, or gas it with ntrogen, co2, argon, mig gas(75%AR, 25% co2), lest you find out the hard way how long it takes bugs to hatch in it.

[Jenab6]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('patience', 'J')enab6, Better get that stuff in thefreezer for a couple weeks, or gas it with ntrogen, co2, argon, mig gas(75%AR, 25% co2), lest you find out the hard way how long it takes bugs to hatch in it.

[thor]

Doomerish thread this is...

[joewp]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thor', 'D')oomerish thread this is...

[dorlomin]

If you want to be doomerish read around on the harvests that followed huge volcanic eruptions. Eruptions like Tambora, Kuwae, and Laki. These kind of volcanic eruptions happen every couple of hundred years and have a devastating effect on the wolds crop production. When we run our stocks so low we make ourselves vaulnrable to events that will happen, just infrequently.

One really bad el Nino and we may be eating our words cause there will be precious little else to eat.

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thor', 'W')hy do Asians tend to only eat rise anyway? Potato has served us pretty well over the centuries.

[DantesPeak]

Farmers hoard rice as they look for $1000 ton price set by India (see my earlier post) to become more widepsread.

This experience with rice may be an indicator that the free markets in oil could also close down a lot faster than most in the media generally believe, in the event of a crisis - which is bound to happen one day on the down slope after PO.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ice Hoarding in Asia Pressures Supply
As Nations Guard
Own Crops, Growers
Seek Higher Prices
By JAMES HOOKWAY
March 31, 2008

BANGKOK -- As rice prices hit new highs, farmers across Asia are hoarding their crops, raising the prospect of a shortage in Asia and Africa that could lead to widespread unrest.

Rice prices in Asia have doubled since the beginning of the year, driven higher by rising demand, a steady depletion of government stockpiles and a pest outbreak in Vietnam, the world's second-largest exporter after Thailand.

On Thursday, medium-grade rice exported from Thailand -- a de facto market benchmark -- reached $760 a metric ton, up from $360 a ton at the end of last year.

Governments around the region are curbing exports to safeguard their domestic supply, putting further upward pressure on prices.

On Friday, India provided a new target for the market: It set $1,000 a ton as the minimum price for rice exports, to encourage dealers to sell to the domestic market instead of waiting for prices to track higher. But farmers in Thailand and elsewhere appear to be willing to wait for higher prices, and to default on contracts if necessary.

Chookiat Ophaswongse, president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association, says farmers and millers are already holding onto their crops as prices continue to rise. Exporters who had entered supply deals with foreign buyers are now trying to find a way to compensate their customers because they can't physically get hold of the rice, he says.

The problem worsened after Thai Commerce Minister Mingkwan Saengsuwan predicted last week that rice would soon hit $1,000 a ton and encouraged local farmers to make the most of the situation.

[Zardoz]

The global food crisis has begun. This is it. We're there:

Tensions rise as world faces short rations

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'F')ood prices are soaring, a wealthier Asia is demanding better food and farmers can't keep up. In short, the world faces a food crisis and in some places it's already boiling over.

Around the globe, people are protesting and governments are responding with often counterproductive controls on prices and exports -- a new politics of scarcity in which ensuring food supplies is becoming a major challenge for the 21st century.

Plundered by severe weather in producing countries and by a boom in demand from fast-developing nations, the world's wheat stocks are at 30-year lows. Grain prices have been on the rise for five years, ending decades of cheap food.

Drought, a declining dollar, a shift of investment money into commodities and use of farm land to grow fuel have all contributed to food woes. But population growth and the growing wealth of China and other emerging countries are likely to be more enduring factors.

World population is set to hit 9 billion by 2050, and most of the extra 2.5 billion people will live in the developing world. It is in these countries that the population is demanding dairy and meat, which require more land to produce.

"This is an additional setback for the world economy, at a time when we are already going through major turbulence. But the biggest drama is the impact of higher food prices on the poor," Angel Gurria, head of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, told Reuters.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Zardoz', 'T')he global food crisis has begun. This is it. We're there:

[shortonoil]

Ferretlover said:

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'R')ather sobering to have one prediction after another coming true here at PO, isn't it?