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Setting the ground works for the next target

What's on your mind?
General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.
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Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 02:12:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')The problem is of course is that I believe that the change in this region will be very painful and you will see a Middle East war break out.

Which country do you think will start a war - Iraq, Iran, Saudi, Syria, Egypt, Israel, USA?
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Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 02:52:36

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('fred2', 'I') cant help but wonder just exactly who was behind the recent assassination thats focussed attention on Syria. CIA?


When you can't answer a question like that you ask yourself. Who would have to gain from this? (what’s the motivation).


http://www.voanews.com/english/2005-02-16-voa33.cfm

will answer some questions

It's not clear what the Syrian regime has to gain from this.

"Syria has repeatedly called for a resumption of peace talks with Israel and for better relations with the United States. Indications are neither is likely to happen soon"

Israel gets 75% of its water supplies (used for corporate cash-crop export agriculture which provides 40% of Israel's export revenue) from Lebanon, Syria and the West Bank (about 25% each). The Israeli Defense Forces prevent any interference with Israel's vital water supplies by threatening to bomb irrigation works in Syria or Lebanon ("The Jews made the desert bloom") . Palestinians who try to use the water are called "well digging terrorists".

If peace and democracy breaks out in the Arab countries the Israelis would have to negotiate water rights according to international laws and precedents. Not " likely to happen soon".
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Unread postby stu » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 09:51:58

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Jack', '
')So, Stu, are you psychic? 8)


:lol:

I wish I was.

Then I would win the lottery and spend the money preparing for all the crap that is going to happen.

I just don't see peace in that region for a long time.

The only thing that will make me change my mind is if the people overthrow their leaders and adopt democracy.

Yes there are countries where this has the potential to happen.

Even in Iran. Most of the population there is quite young and there were even demonstrations against the regime there last year. However at the same time they don't want the Americans interfering in their affairs.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Keith_Mclary', 'W')hich country do you think will start a war - Iraq, Iran, Saudi, Syria, Egypt, Israel, USA?


In answering this I ask which countries have the most to gain?

It would be suicide for Iran and Syria to start anything on the USA or Israel. They would be defeated in the long term and responses to their attacks could easily be justified as self-defence.

The Saudi's are more concerned about holding up a fragile US-backed regime and pumpimng the oil out. They won't threaten anyone unless they are overthrown. But even if that was to happen I find it hard to believe that the Saudi military would follow the orders of coup leaders.

Jordan and Egypt have no reason to attack anyone as they both have peace deals with Israel.

This leaves me to say that Israel and the US will most probably do something. They are the ones seeking to change the region and to mold it into their vision. The Americans want democracy in the region, the Israelis want to have secure borders. Both countries have the military might to change things. USA needs the oil and gas.

I personally think either of these countries will make the first move which will lead to a wider war.
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Unread postby fred2 » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 11:13:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', 'T')his leaves me to say that Israel and the US will most probably do something.
Without doubt. And what they do will be jointly planned and executed, despite what the US might claim.$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', 'T')hey are the ones seeking to change the region and to mold it into their vision. The Americans want democracy in the region, the Israelis want to have secure borders. Both countries have the military might to change things. USA needs the oil and gas.


The *only* thing the Americans want from this region is oil. Period. If you believe the Americans are truly driven by bringing 'democracy' to this region, you've been taken in. Their campaign to bring 'democracy' is just a means they've conjured up to justify attacking all these unfriendly (to the US) regimes... that just happen to be sitting on heaps of oil. And once 'democratised' its then just completely unrelated that all their oil fields just happen to be opened up to US O+G industry? And big US military bases get built there?

Saudi is a distinctly undemocratic country. Has been for a very long time. Has the US tried to force democracy on them? No. Why? Because they're financially tied to the US, thats why. Iraq, and Iran, are/were not.
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Unread postby stu » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 11:23:28

I wonder what side Russia would take in the event of a wider ME war.

http://www.iribnews.ir/Full_en.asp?news_id=187513

Maybe they would'nt get involved because they don't exactly need the oil from the region.

These weapons sales are probably just a sign of Russia keeing itself going economically by selling weapons to anyone who can't buy them from the USA.
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Unread postby maverickdoc » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 11:26:15

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')
This leaves me to say that Israel and the US will most probably do something. They are the ones seeking to change the region and to mold it into their vision. The Americans want democracy in the region


I am a little disappointed to hear you say that STU, do you get fox news over there in the UK (you have been listening to too much bush propaganda). Did you for get the US fought the first gulf war to restore the Kuwaiti monarchy
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Unread postby Permanently_Baffled » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 11:30:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')
This leaves me to say that Israel and the US will most probably do something. They are the ones seeking to change the region and to mold it into their vision. The Americans want democracy in the region


I am a little disappointed to hear you say that STU, do you get fox news over there in the UK (you have been listening to too much bush propaganda). Did you for get the US fought the first gulf war to restore the Kuwaiti monarchy


I have to agree with maverick. If the main export product of the ME was cabbages, the US wouldn't give a **** about democracy in the ME.

Hell the US and UK barely democratic themselves!

LOL :lol:

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Unread postby DomusAlbion » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 13:45:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Permanently_Baffled', 'I')f the main export product of the ME was cabbages, the US wouldn't give a **** about democracy in the ME.

Hell the US and UK barely democratic themselves!

LOL :lol:

PB


Don't sell cabbage short, PB.

You can get a lot of gas from that fine vegetable. :P
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Unread postby Grimnir » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 16:30:47

Syria would only be useful as a way around Hormuz if they weren't planning to do anything about Iran for a decade or so. I think this one is probably just what they say it is--Syria is a problem because it supports terrorists in Israel and the Iraq insurgency.
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Unread postby Cash » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 18:06:48

Actually, there already is an Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Pipeline, which is currently closed. See:

http://www.sunship.com/mideast/info/maps/iraq-map.html

Reopening that pipeline gives Iraq and, with just a little effort, our friends in Kuwait direct access to the Med. Then if Iran does close the Straits of Hormuz, it's actions are far more likely to hurt China, Japan, and other clients than Europe or the US.

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Unread postby maverickdoc » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 18:11:12

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cash', 'A')ctually, there already is an Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Pipeline, which is currently closed. See:

http://www.sunship.com/mideast/info/maps/iraq-map.html

Reopening that pipeline gives Iraq and, with just a little effort, our friends in Kuwait direct access to the Med. Then if Iran does close the Straits of Hormuz, it's actions are far more likely to hurt China, Japan, and other clients than Europe or the US.

Cash

You are right there is a Iraq-turkey pipeline too. So their is no need to build one just to open it up

can you say "Persian incursion"
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Unread postby Grimnir » Thu 17 Feb 2005, 19:02:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Cash', 'A')ctually, there already is an Iraq-Syria-Lebanon Pipeline, which is currently closed.


Very interesting. I wonder how long it would take to get it running again, how much has been blown out by insurgents/time, and how possible it would be to defend it.
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Unread postby stu » Fri 18 Feb 2005, 09:05:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '
')I am a little disappointed to hear you say that STU, do you get fox news over there in the UK (you have been listening to too much bush propaganda). Did you for get the US fought the first gulf war to restore the Kuwaiti monarchy


We do get Fox news but only through satellite thank god!!

To be honest I cant understand you're disappointment MD.

Are you saying that I think Bush is being totally honest when he talks about bringing democracy to the ME and it has nothing to do with oil.

If that is the case then I believe the exact opposite.

I believe that Bush will try to bring democracy to the ME to try and guarantee the oil supplies and will then focus on doing the same thing in the Cental Asian countries. :)
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Unread postby maverickdoc » Fri 18 Feb 2005, 13:09:25

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('maverickdoc', '
')I am a little disappointed to hear you say that STU, do you get fox news over there in the UK (you have been listening to too much bush propaganda). Did you for get the US fought the first gulf war to restore the Kuwaiti monarchy


$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('stu', '
')We do get Fox news but only through satellite thank god!!

To be honest I cant understand you're disappointment MD.

Are you saying that I think Bush is being totally honest when he talks about bringing democracy to the ME and it has nothing to do with oil.

If that is the case then I believe the exact opposite.

I believe that Bush will try to bring democracy to the ME to try and guarantee the oil supplies and will then focus on doing the same thing in the Cental Asian countries. :)


Stu, I said that only half jokingly. I have been following your threads recently you seem to know what you are talking about.

I have to respectfully disagree with you when you say:
“I believe that Bush will try to bring democracy to the ME to try and guarantee the oil supplies and will then focus on doing the same thing in the Cental Asian countries.â€
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Unread postby Dragondrummer » Wed 23 Feb 2005, 22:03:55

US policy towards Syria is centred on the Mosul - Haifa pipeline which has been closed for decades. Re-opening it would provide Iraq with a Med port for exporting oil and bypassing the Gulf. It would also provide Israel with an alternative to Russian oil.

US activities in the ME have nothing to do with democracy. Zero. Zip.

Invading Iraq has provided the US with numerous windfalls,

-demonstrating to the real terrorist states, KSR and Pakistan, that the US is deadly serious about fighting terrorism. A change in policy in these two countries has already occured as a result.

-giving the US the ability of basing aircraft within strike distance of Baku.

-allowing american oil companies to invest in the Iraqi oil industry to increase production.

-providing the US with leverage in OPEC via the Iraqi oil ministry. Central to US policy is the need to ensure the petrodollar system remains in place as the greenback becomes less popular.
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