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Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Discussions related to the physiological and psychological effects of peak oil on our members and future generations.
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby Pops » Mon 24 Mar 2008, 19:37:13

Yea, we had CHEAP oil in the '80, leading to a housing run,
Then after the last housing bust the dot.coms and their bust
Then housing and war and go shop and we are seeing where they are going,
Then commodities, but I' think they will see some painful (on both ends) reduction in demand soon.

What is next?
The legitimate object of government, is to do for a community of people, whatever they need to have done, but can not do, at all, or can not, so well do, for themselves -- in their separate, and individual capacities.
-- Abraham Lincoln, Fragment on Government (July 1, 1854)
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby BigTex » Mon 24 Mar 2008, 19:50:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'I')f I have one soapbox to stand and pontificate on, this is it.

These cycles are all to common with every one of our valued posters. Take a day or two off and get away from here if you must.

The trick is realizing where you are cutting back on your exposure of doom. It gets easier over time. I promise. This includes little trips to the gun counter to look at glocks or bulk ammo. Also fill your tank with gas. A full tank always eases my mind. Go fishing, eat a big steak, go have relations with Mrs Tex, and so on.

Just for reference, you should have been here two years ago when everyone was convinced Israel ws going to Nuke Iran in April. It was (pardon my french) a real Circle Jerk of Doom. That was hot off the heels of Katrina.


Yes, I understand.

I am not meaning to ring the doom bell. I know that no matter how much you read, think, ponder and study, the future will surprise you in both good and bad ways.

The OP was intended to illustrate the idea that we have two lines on our graph: one is a steady straight line heading toward less economic growth as a result of resource depletion and handling Mother Nature roughly. The other line is the up and down of economic growth and contraction that is, in part, just a function of human group behavior. When the second line begins to look like it's going to line up with the first one, it can get the doomer heart racing, but I was trying to point out, like you, that we probably aren't there yet. That is, there are likely to be several more periods of economic growth, and this recession is unlikely to be the end of good times for all time.

What WILL make this recession interesting is that the way we come out of it is likely to be different than past recessions, primarily because there is unlikely to be cheap oil at the other end of it to send us off on another rocket-ride of economic growth.
:)
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby BigTex » Mon 24 Mar 2008, 19:54:56

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Pops', 'Y')ea, we had CHEAP oil in the '80, leading to a housing run,
Then after the last housing bust the dot.coms and their bust
Then housing and war and go shop and we are seeing where they are going,
Then commodities, but I' think they will see some painful (on both ends) reduction in demand soon.

What is next?


Commodities bust will probably keep us busy for a awhile. I can see gold going to $2500 and then "busting" down to $1700, with similar stories in other commodities.

After that, probably an alternative energy bust a lot like the tech bust.
:)
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby Ferretlover » Mon 24 Mar 2008, 21:03:55

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'O')OOohh... I didn't think of it that way... HHHmmm... keep "pet" zombies on the "payroll" by feeding them those who are no longer able to contribute??
This way to the kitchens:arrow:


Whoa, I never said anything about using the oldies for zombie-chow.


Zombie-Chow! You gonna trademark that name? [smilie=evil6.gif]
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby BigTex » Mon 24 Mar 2008, 22:16:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'O')OOohh... I didn't think of it that way... HHHmmm... keep "pet" zombies on the "payroll" by feeding them those who are no longer able to contribute??
This way to the kitchens:arrow:


Whoa, I never said anything about using the oldies for zombie-chow.


Zombie-Chow! You gonna trademark that name? [smilie=evil6.gif]


Well, since Soylent Green is already taken...

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:)
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby Ferretlover » Mon 24 Mar 2008, 22:39:52

rotflmao !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby PrairieMule » Tue 25 Mar 2008, 15:17:59

Sign this waiver with your most current address and get a free t-shirt!

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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby JJ » Tue 25 Mar 2008, 15:37:33

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('threadbear', 'I') have all of the same ideas and emotions you do, Big Tex. I think most people over 50, who remember previous cycles, think what's coming is going to be similar or worse than the 70's/80's. That realization has probably just recently dawned.


But, you know, that kind of thinking is probably NOT GOOD, because the 1970s was a completely different situation. There was similar economic mismanagement, but the whole energy crisis, as we have noted here so often, was mostly a political creation.

Any time I am talking about peak oil-related issues to someone who was an adult in the 1970s and they say something like "oh yeah, it will be just like in the 1970s", I think no no no, it won't be, because the 1970s ended with the 1980s and, ultimately, more cheap oil. I don't see any way in the world that peak oil is going to end with anything but the thud of many peoples' faces hitting a brick wall painted to look like a prosperous future powered by alternative energy.

And the thing that is just a DAMN SHAME is that being aware of it early is not only of little value at the society level (because so few people are interested in hearing about it), but if you're not careful people start thinking you are crazy. What's up with that? Talk about no good deed going unpunished.


There is a man who is retiring from the grocery store I work at on Thursday. The entire town is supposed to come watch him retire; they are going to have a band and everything (he's been there 46 years, working in the gas station.) When I said something to him about peak oil about six months ago, he jumped up out of his chair and said I was full of sh%t and that the same thing happened in the 70's, it was all manufactured, and it is now also, and also that all I ever read was doom and gloom, and re-iterated that I was full of sh%t. The last several days he has been pointing out how great the stock market is doing. Now I want to kill him.

Of course I can't say anything. He has 750,000 dollars in his 401k. He says he is going to let the company manage it...he will be making more than he does now working.

I want to say enjoy your three weeks of retirement, but I suppose he'll figure it out.
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby Ludi » Tue 25 Mar 2008, 16:15:41

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')I want to say enjoy your three weeks of retirement, but I suppose he'll figure it out.



He might be fine for years.
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby JJ » Tue 25 Mar 2008, 16:36:21

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')I want to say enjoy your three weeks of retirement, but I suppose he'll figure it out.



He might be fine for years.


he probably will.
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby BigTex » Tue 25 Mar 2008, 16:45:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ludi', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JJ', '
')I want to say enjoy your three weeks of retirement, but I suppose he'll figure it out.



He might be fine for years.


he probably will.


People like that are probably exceptionally well positioned, assuming that they have the right investment mix.

If he has no debt and with his fat nest egg, he ought to be okay. The current system is sort of designed around providing for people like him.

He's worked hard, he's entitled to his treasured delusions.

No need to tell people like that when they reach the summit that they have been climbing the wrong mountain their whole lives.

It kind of reminds me of the old Saturday Night Live skit where Chevy Chase as Gerald Ford says: "Oh yeah, well if I'm so stupid, then how come I'm President?"
:)
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby Ludi » Tue 25 Mar 2008, 17:39:14

Yeah, that's one reason why I haven't tried to talk to my folks about peak oil. My Dad is retired, 78 years old, not very good at handling change. I hope he won't have to deal with the problems we're facing.
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Re: Cycles of Optimism and Pessimism

Postby Ferretlover » Tue 25 Mar 2008, 21:01:43

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PrairieMule', 'S')ign this waiver with your most current address and get a free t-shirt!

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:lol: Another great shirt! Gee, I'd buy 'em! Has Matt asked to carry them on His website yet?? :lol:
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