[TheDude]

Is Simmons' oft used comparison apt, or an apples and oranges misconception? I don't drink 1280 ounces of water at one setting, after all! That's 26 days worth of water (at 48 oz/day).

'Course he's talking about oil instead of gasoline, as my figures would be, with a 10 gallon tank. Still, this always irritated me - seemed like the kind of statement you'd hear from a millionaire who's never been threatened with having his electricity turned off for not paying the bill.

[Colorado-Valley]

I'm sure he is a millionaire.

I always get the impression that Simmons does care about people, otherwise he wouldn't bother with trying to warn us about depletion.

He seems okay for a rich guy ...



.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'I')s Simmons' oft used comparison apt, or an apples and oranges misconception?

[Starvid]

A clusterfuck, yeah. Like in $8 a gallon Europe.

[Tanada]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A') clusterfuck, yeah. Like in $8 a gallon Europe.

[wisconsin_cur]

I think what he is striving to communicate is the degree to which we under-value oil based upon the benefit we get from it. He does this better when he compares it to the price of a Latte. We do not complain about how much we pay for this treat but when compared to a comparable amount of oil we do whine.

He may not fully understand the impact of higher prices on those who have not had the blessing of intelligence and drive that helped him be the success that he is or he may understand and a very rationale assessment of the reality we face makes the level of suffering from higher prices a moot point. "If suffering is what we need to save the modern experiment (he might say I am projecting), then we need to start that suffering as soon as possible to both increase the chances of salvaging modernity and reducing suffering in the long run."

We need to conserve, (and here I may be stealing another Simmons line) since it is the last super giant yet to be discovered. comparing the price of oil/gasoline to other liquid commodities is one way to communicate that need to the general public. And, if it does communicate that to the general public, I don't care if it is a logical fallacy.

[misterno]

Where I am from - Turkey- people make dollar an hour and gas is $12/gl

Yet nobody complains

Because the cars are small, and have small engines, most use diesel which is more efficient and stick shift

So the botom line is if oil hits $500/barrrel, everybody will adjust and there will be no doomsday

There will only be adjustment.

[evilgenius]

I have always been annoyed by Simmons example. No, I don't need more than that one dollars worth of water for a day at .10 a cup while if I drive an American distance in relatively inefficient cars it will wind up costing a lot more than a dollar a day. If he thinks that the calculus can be done on a per cup basis he has it wrong. I do see, however, that there is plenty of room for the economics of the situation to force higher efficiency and destroy demand vis a vis unnecessary travel. What he is saying is that per cup the price can go up quite a bit before the world energy situation becomes untenable. The bottom line is that the example breaks down fairly quickly but it works to show a reality to those that don't have the time or inclination to listen. He should start to introduce a second example so that as people begin to listen he can both attract them and keep their attention over time.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A') clusterfuck, yeah. Like in $8 a gallon Europe.

[MrBill]

One woman in Palm Beach has the world's largest diamond. 274 carats estimated to be worth $250 million. Why not say that oil could also be worth $912.905 per carat equivalent? Surely outside of diamond tipped drill bits used to find oil, oil must be equally as valuable as diamonds? Or is that just comparing joules to jewels? ; - ))

[cube]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'A') clusterfuck, yeah. Like in $8 a gallon Europe.

[LoneSnark]

What oil shortage? Anyone can get all the oil they want for $102 a barrel. 'Shortages' are a peculiar occurance existing during sudden disasters and during government price controls.

As long as the price is allowed to move freely there can be no shortage. It may need to move to $200 a barrel to clear the market, but shortages require an act of congress.

[conning]

I like Roscoe Bartlett's approach.

A barrel of oil contains a great deal of energy. If you made it up into gallons of gasoline, there would be 42 gallons.

And those 42 gallons of gallons have the energy equivalent of 25,000 man-hours, or 12 people working 40 hours weeks for 52 weeks. All for $100.

Clearly, we have not understood the true value of this substance.