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More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby erb » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 10:01:33

I'll be ok because the average person wants it to be and someone will figure something out
really...
because my sister in law said so and trust me she cant handle inconvienience.
everyone will give up everything for some sense of normalcy, you'll see
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby dinopello » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 10:10:34

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PopeGideon', 'T')here's no disconnect at all.

A. Oil is running out, so there is supply/demand pressure.

B. The dollar is falling, so oil is a hedge against dollar devaluation.

C. Paper investment garbage is starting to ooze toxic sludge, so oil is a safe haven because it is real, it is necessary, and it can't lose all or even most of its value.

A+B+C=150 by year end. Maybe by the Summer Solstice.


If we were talking about buying reserves then it would make sense to me. Everything you say is true, but still the spot and futures price of oil reflects short term energy useage or anticipated future demand. In a full economic collapse I would expect the price to drop, unless the supply picture is even worse that the pessimists expect.

I think it reflects that there is still activity occuring at a fairly normal pace. My short trip to Southern Virginia this weekend confirms that the roads are clogged with trucks and cars. The stores seemed busy, the bay was full of pleasure craft. As long as people have jobs I think this will continue. The economy is all about employment. When unemployment skyrockets then we all are in trouble.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 20:19:22

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PopeGideon', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('MM', 'I') have confidence they wont let it get into "chain-reaction" territory. They will sell the JP Morgan acquisition of Bear as a good thing. The market will be up tomorrow.


Man, are you smoking the same crack as Mr. Bill?

The S&P is down 2.5% -- %%%!

It's 1:31 AM.

That gives the Fed about 7 hours to pull something out of their asses to prevent a really bad day.

Remember, the announcement of the rate cut and the new loan facility was supposed to be GOOD news.

The problem is that the Bear Stearns news was really BAD news.

So bad, in fact, that Hong Kong just announced it was NOT matching the Fed's rate decrease.

Let me translate that for you - China is dropping the dollar peg.

It's all over except for the crying at this point.

Yes Mr Bill has some good crack ;)

Bear Stearns was pure orchestration. The rate cut and some better than expected earnings news will calm the markets as we go into Tuesday. I predict Citi will be the next one to go when things hit a climax.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 22:06:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mmasters', '
')Bear Stearns was pure orchestration. The rate cut and some better than expected earnings news will calm the markets as we go into Tuesday. I predict Citi will be the next one to go when things hit a climax.


Which will be about when, roughly?

I think Countrywide is the next to go, which subsequnetly will put a lot of pressure on Citibank, being it tried to bail it out before.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 22:44:18

I'm thinking summer/fall but who knows in this market.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby Heineken » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 22:44:57

How long can the Fed go on bailing?

Is there any theoretical limit?

Is there any difference between the current $10 trillion of unpayable debt and $20 trillion of unpayable debt? $30 trillion?

The whole game seems unreal now.

No matter what wildfire erupts, the Fed simply smothers it with Monopoly money.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 23:05:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'H')ow long can the Fed go on bailing?

Is there any theoretical limit?

Is there any difference between the current $10 trillion of unpayable debt and $20 trillion of unpayable debt? $30 trillion?

The whole game seems unreal now.

No matter what wildfire erupts, the Fed simply smothers it with Monopoly money.


When foreign creditors stop buying monopoly money from the Fed then it all crashes down.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby mmasters » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 23:18:35

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'H')ow long can the Fed go on bailing?

Is there any theoretical limit?

The money they can print up is essentially unlimited and instant with computers. The real limitations are within the design of the financial system itself and the various methods/instruments they can employ within it. They have to keep the whole thing looking somewhat respectable too as to not raise too many eyebrows. I think the root of it is how long the dollar will continue to be supported as a major currency by the global cartel of central banks. Once they stop supporting it the fed loses a great deal of its power and the market will self destruct (since the fed's power is keeping it from doing that). The only way they could phase out the dollar as a major currency would be under some mysterious circumstances. Stay tuned!
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby JohnDenver » Mon 17 Mar 2008, 23:34:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PopeGideon', 'T')here's no disconnect at all.

A. Oil is running out, so there is supply/demand pressure.

B. The dollar is falling, so oil is a hedge against dollar devaluation.

C. Paper investment garbage is starting to ooze toxic sludge, so oil is a safe haven because it is real, it is necessary, and it can't lose all or even most of its value.

A+B+C=150 by year end. Maybe by the Summer Solstice.


Uh huh. Apparently the market sees things differently:
Oil plummets on economy worries
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby PopeGideon » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 01:06:01

Oil dropped to 104 and you think that means "the market sees it differently"?

I'll agree with you when oil settles below 80.

Till then, 104 means what I said it means, and so does 100 and 90.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby eastbay » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 01:29:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PopeGideon', 'O')il dropped to 104 and you think that means "the market sees it differently"?

I'll agree with you when oil settles below 80.

Till then, 104 means what I said it means, and so does 100 and 90.


Hilarious. It's at 106 now and everyone seems to think that makes it cheap. Too much! :lol:

Look. Here's what we can see coming. In the coming days and weeks we're going to be reading about tens of thousands of layoffs. By summer it will be hundreds of thousands. By this time next year.... millions of people now working will be job seekers. This is serious. But it will get much more serious.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby manu » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 04:26:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Starvid', 'T')hings are looking dark grey to pitch black in the US. Let's pray for decoupling.


Wow! What happened to your optimism? A few months ago you were chirping about how good things were. I told you get out your snow boots and start building an igloo. Or get a job on the nuclear ship your so fond of, that would be nice and warm. By the way, its a world crash.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby alokin » Tue 18 Mar 2008, 08:43:14

Times are normal, "only" a bank crash. But imagine something will happen NOW like a earthquake or a hurricane a terrorist attack - what will happen then?
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 20 Mar 2008, 10:41:07

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PopeGideon', 'O')il dropped to 104 and you think that means "the market sees it differently"?

I'll agree with you when oil settles below 80.

Till then, 104 means what I said it means, and so does 100 and 90.


Woo-wee look at that oil price drop. Dropped below 100... 90 here we come, rich guy. 8O

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Falls Below $99 on Concern U.S. Slowdown May Limit Demand
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $99 a barrel in New York on growing concern a U.S. economic slowdown will hurt commodity demand.

Linky
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby DantesPeak » Thu 20 Mar 2008, 10:46:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JohnDenver', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('PopeGideon', 'O')il dropped to 104 and you think that means "the market sees it differently"?

I'll agree with you when oil settles below 80.

Till then, 104 means what I said it means, and so does 100 and 90.


Woo-wee look at that oil price drop. Dropped below 100... 90 here we come, rich guy. 8O

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'O')il Falls Below $99 on Concern U.S. Slowdown May Limit Demand
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell below $99 a barrel in New York on growing concern a U.S. economic slowdown will hurt commodity demand.

Linky


In the linked article, the same energy analysts that failed to grasp that a shortage of oil products was pushing up the price of oil also fail to grasp the coming of spring will temporarily take the pressure off the demand for oil products, and therefore the demand for oil.

As I've stated about 20 times this last month or so, it was supply and demand considerations pushing up the price of oil - in addition to a steady and constant devaluation of the worth of the US dollar.
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Re: More Desperate Fed Moves (on a Sunday) . . .

Unread postby JohnDenver » Thu 20 Mar 2008, 11:37:38

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '
')In the linked article, the same energy analysts that failed to grasp that a shortage of oil products was pushing up the price of oil also fail to grasp the coming of spring will temporarily take the pressure off the demand for oil products, and therefore the demand for oil.


Oil didn't fall from $112 to $99 in a couple of days due to spring. It fell because a bunch of hot money dirty speculators are running for the exits.
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