[BigTex]

I can't wait:



OR

[FoolYap]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'C')oncerned, like I said, technology is not as fragile as you pretend. A ravaged African country does not have any of the infrastructure you speak of, yet the citizens have and operate cell phones.

[LoneSnark]

mos6507, you are absolutely right.

I was not thinking they would be using the batteries in the laptops, I presumed it would be direct power during the day, or perhaps with acid bath batteries.

It is also why I suggested laptops, many models can operate without the need for fans, leaving the hard-drive and user interface as the only moving parts.

But when I write my post I have no idea how, I must have been drunk, but I overlooked many aspects. The drying out of electrolitics alone will kill most computers within half a century. I suspect dry-proof capacitors do exist, but I am pretty sure they are not currently in most devices.

As such, my post on the survivability of technology without extensive repair at least every half century was wrong. It was a thought experiment which I did not follow through on.

That said, the suggestion that the ability to make at least replacement capacitors and CFL backlights and fans, what amounts to 1940s technology, is absurd. Even if you convince yourself that all technological products cannot be produced without oil, you must know that oil will still be flowing out of the ground many centuries from now, just not in the quantities we are accustomed to today.

[eastbay]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'O')K - my prediction has been that we are entering a period that will reflect historical eras. Not everything will be the same but there could be remarkable similarities. Thus my thesis that we will reexperience the 70's, then the 30's, then the 1890's then....the 1400's?

Starting off, we are in the process of entering a period not too disimilar from the 70's with stagflation, high energy prices, high unemployment rates and stagnating wages.

This is likely to be followed by a 1930's style Depression in which unemployment levels skyrocket, bankruptcy is endemic, food and fuel become expensive and scarce for many and outright penury is the lot of a substantial portion of 1st Worlders.

At some point we will morph into a 19th century situation (1890's) where power in the form of electricity and fuel become very expensive and scarce to the point where whole communities must revert to life without, or with very intermittent supplies. There will still be very wealthy areas and we will still see car and heavy machine usage- just at a much lesser level...similar to the 19th century.

And after that...hmmm...prognostications? I can't see a way out of this one but it doesn't look good. Even the 19th century had abundant coal. Even that may be lacking 30 years hence.

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'B')ut when I write my post I have no idea how, I must have been drunk, but I overlooked many aspects.

[BigTex]

As for anything electronic lasting more than a few years, forget it.

Most of this stuff is so poorly built that a well placed shot of static electricity will kill the whole thing.

And when you don't have a good supply of clean electricity--is "sine wave" the term?--you can doubly forget it.

[LoneSnark]

A few years? You are making the opposite mistake by being over pessimistic. A growing quantity of electronics no longer use transformers, opting instead for switched-mode power supplies which do not care what form the power is supplied. Both my laptop and desktop computer would operate just fine off 100V DC, I'd guess some flat-panel LCD supplies can perform this trick too.

That said, inverter technology has come a long way. They do not produce sine waves, so cheap stereo equipment will buzz. But they will power everything else with sufficient DC power.

What you probably mean by clean electricity is without voltage spikes and dips which are common in third world countries and will shorten the life of electronics. But we make devices to fix this. The UPS on my server re-generates the incoming power signal to remove all possible glitches, even power loss. Modern UPSs are robust and their batteries are already lead acid, so home-made batteries can probably be used. But, as said earlier, they do use capacitors which might dry out.

"That said, the suggestion that the ability to make at least replacement capacitors and CFL backlights and fans, what amounts to 1940s technology, is absurd. Even if you convince yourself that all technological products cannot be produced without oil, you must know that oil will still be flowing out of the ground many centuries from now, just not in the quantities we are accustomed to today."

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'A') few years? You are making the opposite mistake by being over pessimistic. A growing quantity of electronics no longer use transformers, opting instead for switched-mode power supplies which do not care what form the power is supplied. Both my laptop and desktop computer would operate just fine off 100V DC, I'd guess some flat-panel LCD supplies can perform this trick too.

That said, inverter technology has come a long way. They do not produce sine waves, so cheap stereo equipment will buzz. But they will power everything else with sufficient DC power.

What you probably mean by clean electricity is without voltage spikes and dips which are common in third world countries and will shorten the life of electronics. But we make devices to fix this. The UPS on my server re-generates the incoming power signal to remove all possible glitches, even power loss. Modern UPSs are robust and their batteries are already lead acid, so home-made batteries can probably be used. But, as said earlier, they do use capacitors which might dry out.

"That said, the suggestion that the ability to make at least replacement capacitors and CFL backlights and fans, what amounts to 1940s technology, is absurd. Even if you convince yourself that all technological products cannot be produced without oil, you must know that oil will still be flowing out of the ground many centuries from now, just not in the quantities we are accustomed to today."

[Grifter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')
What is the oldest electronic device you currently use?

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Grifter', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')
What is the oldest electronic device you currently use?

[Grifter]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '
')
I had a 1981 alarm clock, but I had to ditch it in about 1997. It was a GE Great Awakening. Nice clock radio.

[manu]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'm')os6507, you are absolutely right.

I was not thinking they would be using the batteries in the laptops, I presumed it would be direct power during the day, or perhaps with acid bath batteries.

It is also why I suggested laptops, many models can operate without the need for fans, leaving the hard-drive and user interface as the only moving parts.

But when I write my post I have no idea how, I must have been drunk, but I overlooked many aspects. The drying out of electrolitics alone will kill most computers within half a century. I suspect dry-proof capacitors do exist, but I am pretty sure they are not currently in most devices.

As such, my post on the survivability of technology without extensive repair at least every half century was wrong. It was a thought experiment which I did not follow through on.

That said, the suggestion that the ability to make at least replacement capacitors and CFL backlights and fans, what amounts to 1940s technology, is absurd. Even if you convince yourself that all technological products cannot be produced without oil, you must know that oil will still be flowing out of the ground many centuries from now, just not in the quantities we are accustomed to today.

[LoneSnark]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat is the oldest electronic device you currently use?

[BigTex]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'T')he fact is, what kills electronics does not strike 100% of the time. Many cell phones and modern laptops will not survive the decade, most will not survive 40 years, but some will inexplicably survive the century.

[hubbertspeak7777777]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'T')he fact is, what kills electronics does not strike 100% of the time. Many cell phones and modern laptops will not survive the decade, most will not survive 40 years, but some will inexplicably survive the century.

[patience]

I've been involved with automation and machine control electronics from relay based ladder logic up to prgrammable controllers, and then Personal Computer based stuff. You know what takes a lickin' and keeps on tickin'? Yup, the oldest crap.

There's something of an accelerated life test going on when this stuff is in service 3 shifts a day, 6 or 7 days a week in a hostile environment. For any electronics you want to be durable, I'd take a look at the industrial stuff. Better yet, power down to the simplest life you can make work, because that's what will last. The KISS principle is alive and well. The last machine shop I worked in did the last repairs on a STEAM ENGINE that drove the planing mill in a local furniture plant until it was destroyed in a flood 3 years ago. The engine was pre 1920. THAT's durability, and it could be maintained with 1900 technology.

That level is about the level that I expect to endure long term, say 1860 to 1900 era tech, mainly because the necessary things to keep it going are also durable, and can be reproduced with low tech means of the smokestack era.

[patience]

I expect a variety of tech levels to coexist into the future for some time to come, and I agree with Anarky321 that the down-curve could be steep. Complex equipment stops operating when even one small critical part fails. Without reliable supply lines (think transportation with scarce diesel), and skilled help to do repairs, large systems can be down for extended periods of time. As more difficulties arise, the problems feed on each other.

Some gizmos will keep working for a while, no doubt, but SYSTEMS are another matter. Systems are dependent on too many inputs of power, transport, maintenance, component supply, and an orderly society to support those things. The are too many Achilles heels in our societal network. At some point, trucking will be interrupted or slowed to a crawl from fuel, communication, credit, or road problems. When Katrina hit, every tower climbing monkey in the US went to the area to replace communication antennaes that had landed in Arkansas. It took months to bring it back to near normal, and that was with the support network functioning well. Mix in some fuel shortages, and you're down for a long time. Radio, as in SW, HAM, and conventional broadcast is much less vulnerable to collapse, due to less centralization and interdependent networking. It could be hard to keep foreign news flowing, though, over a longer term.

I think the country could MOSTLY stabilize at 1890's level, but with veggie diesel powered tractors working across the fence from horses and oxen. Transport would soon look more like Asia, or Africa, with everything from pedestrian to rail used.

In terms of preps, I'm thinking in terms of planning for the utmost in self reliance, low tech solutions, durability, and community networking.

[vision-master]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')hat is the oldest electronic device you currently use?