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PeakOil is You

New to "Peak Oil"

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby WoefulOne » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 19:34:56

Well yes. Something like if 12 nukes go off in the earths atmosphere in close intervals we could be thrust into a nuclear winter. Not the word could as being key. Still It is a no brainer that if energy wars erupt sooner rather than later a larger country will fire off nukes. Then other countrys will join the nuke fray. In the end who knows. One thing is certain. There will be enogh power and fuel to launch these warheads half way around the world.

So if we really go into a "powerdown" mode we'll see nuke exchanges before we see a small community working together in the face of long term survival.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby Ludi » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 19:41:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', '
')So if we really go into a "powerdown" mode we'll see nuke exchanges before we see a small community working together in the face of long term survival.


See, that doesn't make a lot of sense to me. If we go into "powerdown" we won't be fighting energy wars. Energy wars will be fought because we refuse to go into powerdown. Which is what we're doing now. If we did go into powerdown, we would stop fighting energy wars, which waste a great deal of energy.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 20:29:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'I')'ve read them all, the only reason why I said die off, was because I
had came upon that site as well, but chose not to read it.
Dieoff.com is a pretty good site with a lot of well researched
articles. But ya know, read it a little then go enjoy the sunset or something...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', '
')I found Peak Oil Debunked and while it's some fresh air from LATOC.
I wonder if these guys are in denial??
Yeah, his name is in the dictionary under "denial".
One of those guys that always thinks: "oil will be back under $10
per barrel, just you wait..." Meanwhile the reality is oil is cresting
over $110 and it ain't heading down anytime soon.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', '
')Oh, and yes my wife's family does depend.
Her sister has MS
Mother has bad depression and OCD issues.
Father needs BP meds

MY family
Mother needs insulin
Step father needs BP meds
my youger sister needs inhalers and breathing machine
The miracles of modern medicine... But hey, as I said medicine is not
going away completely in the next couple years. So if that's your
only concern you'll probably get to witness at least a little more
history before the end.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'W')e live in Texas. The U.S. is prjected to take the worst of it all.
Well, the best way to witness history is to be in the thick of it...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'I')t'll take some time to readjust.
Yeah, life's like that... I hear ya.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'I')f say all liquids peaked in 2010...
First thing, it looks like liquids peaked in 2005, and light sweet
crude peaked that's why going after heavy crude and tar sands has
been such a big thing. So presently We've been floundering trying
to maintain a plateau for the last couple years and with a lot of big
hitters like Mexico in decline, US peaked in the 1970's, and average
world production is probably heading down. So even with our war
machine prodding the middle east, it's getting harder and harder to
maintain the supply that keeps our modern life running.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'A')lso can someone tell me I are confused. If say all liquids peakedin 2010, followed by shortages and what not, yet it's projected thatdemand will grow to 115 mbd in 2020, I think. How can that b if in 2010 oil shortages occur, then an economy cannot gorw anyfurther, right?
Demand can grow as more people are born. At some point, people
start dying because of lack of fuel/food and that's when demand
starts going down. The problem is, human population has been
doubling for quite some time like yeast. Now tiny humans are
covering the planet and have grown enough to see from space.
We're reaching the limits of the planet and demand can be
expected to keep doubling along with people until people start
dying in big numbers or stop making more. And people don't want
to stop making more.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'A')Nd in turn prices would drop because if that, not right away of course, but they would drop.No. If there are enough rare metals to replace all our electricity with
solar panels, we still need petrochemicals to live the lives we
expect. Our food production, transport, everything mined, every can
on the shelf, every box all use fossil fuels. We couldn't replace all
our fuel needs with ten times the growing area we have or solar,
even slashing all the rainforests won't cut it. Anyway I'll just
summarize like this, as people beg and scream for heat in the
winter, fuel and food, no prices won't be headed down.

Are there factors or inventions that might be able to cut demand?
* Nuclear, as in bombs.
* Starvation, the South West US is progressing into a 99 year
megadrought, other part of the US will also suffer from
desertification opening up the possibility that the US may lose most
of it's cropland in the next 50 years.
* Strict birth policies and changing to third world living standards.
* Strict birth policies and a combination of technologies such as
"Toe to heel air injection" to mine unminable petroleum supplies,
solar and approaches like sequestering carbon with Agrichar.
* ...
Continuing as we have been is not on the list.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'I') want to hold hope that we as a race can overcome this.I hope so too, getting our numbers down is the main problem. Well
that and catastrophic climate change may challenge this possibility,
but there is hope.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'O')ne thing I despise about Bush is the fact we have more enemies
and less friends because of him. And he threw us back into debt. At least Clinton got us out of it.
Well I'm a Clinton fan too. But you're probably not going to like
hearing this, most of Clinton's success was luck.

His balanced budget initiatives were some of his greatest
achievements, but the success of the economy mostly coincided
with energy production. During Clinton the world had more energy
flowing then ever before and consequently low energy prices and
high profits for businesses. Now the picture has changed,
personally I don't like Bushes resource war in Iraq, but for America
to remain a superpower (at least for the next few years),
banks/business interest needed to secure access to oil. Saudi
Arabia isn't maxed out because of our war, Mexican production has
peaked but not because of our war. The world is running out and
what we are witnessing are resource wars. And I say witnessing
because certainly neither you nor I personally choose to invade for
oil. And I'll tell you, if you don't believe peak oil is a big issue
behinds the scenes in Washington, really there's little question they
are aware. Bush being an X-oilman and Cheney who has spoken
about peak oil long before it was well known.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', '
')I hope Matt Savinar is wrong. Upon further reviewing of his site, I
wonder if he uses it to sell things from his store?
Actually Matt makes a lot less money then he would if he wasn't
telling the truth. Think about it this way, what sells? Solutions sell
and he is talking about a problem with no solution. Lots of people
dieing is not a solution. He has ads for things that interest people
who visit his site, like solar power and books. But really, he would
make a lot more money if didn't tell it like it is. Personally I don't like
Matt, but he's not in it for the money.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'A')s of now I am in debt of about 23,000 I won't be able to pay that off anytime soon.
On the plus side, the US dollar is heading into the toilet your debt
along with it. So don't feel too bad, as the dollar looses value so
does your debt.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'M')y head is hurting I've been up all morning researching things.

And it doesn't look so bleak. I will hold out hope. Honestly, it may take a few months to a few years to really get an
in depth understanding of all the issues. Though I won't feel bad if
you disagree with everything I've said. And personally, don't give
yourself too much of a headache or worry that the world is going to
end on Monday, (you have at least till Friday). And try to be
satisfied for now that you're onto something important.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby wisconsin_cur » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 20:40:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')ell yes. Something like if 12 nukes go off in the earths atmosphere in close intervals we could be thrust into a nuclear winter.


Don't want to be picky but I'm going to be...

The one's in the atmosphere don't throw up as much dust as the ones that go off on the ground. A lot of nukes went off when we were doing above ground testing. I don't know what we need to get a new ice age but I think we can tone it down a bit a say that since nukes are the most effective when they go off in the atmosphere and that it takes a lot of them to kick up enough dust to change the climate, that if we prepare for one or two lost growing seasons than one has greatly increased their odds.

Focusing on Ice Ages is just looking for a reason to do no planning or preparing, whats the point? right? One to three years is doable. Heck 10 years is doable if you decide to.

The larger point is you have a choice. Start preparing when and as you can or just be depressed because your expectations have proved unrealistic. The former is useful and responsible. The latter is more common but a lot less helpful.
http://www.thenewfederalistpapers.com
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 20:43:45

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'W')ell yes. Something like if 12 nukes go off in the earths atmosphere in
close intervals we could be thrust into a nuclear winter. Not the word
could as being key. Still It is a no brainer that if energy wars erupt
sooner rather than later a larger country will fire off nukes. Then other
countrys will join the nuke fray. In the end who knows. One thing is
certain. There will be enogh power and fuel to launch these warheads
half way around the world.

So if we really go into a "powerdown" mode we'll see nuke exchanges
before we see a small community working together in the face of long
term survival.
Nuclear exchange is a possibility, but IMHO our present climate change
situation is more serious then fallout or nuclear winter. And no,
even 12 ground nukes isn't going to dim the sky's for a day.
That number is way too low.

Most nuclear weapons are focused and have a yield around 1 megaton
"the largest, most powerful nuclear weapon ever detonated...
had a yield of about 50 megatons of TNT"
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tsar_Bomba
http://academic.brooklyn.cuny.edu/physi ... /bomb.html

IMHO = In My Humble Opinion

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('WoefulOne', 'A')lso I liked Biodiesels, while not something for long term, it will
provide a strudy bridge for short, I think. Let us hope.
It won't. Biofuels = burning crops and with building drought issues,
depleted aquifers (used for crop production) and demand for food
causing us to draw down grain stocks. The only thing biofuels
demand is going to do is cause more stripping of rainforest's so we
can import more fuels and that's not going to scale up much more.
Celulistic ethanol is a hope, if we can get it working on large scale.
Corn ethanol and biodiesel are dead ends.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', 'p')s.: i can already see this is going to end up as another cannibalism thread.... :twisted:
Soylent green it's 100% organic! :lol:

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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby eastbay » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 21:50:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', 'i')ts a fallacy to believe that you HAVE to experience everything in order to understand it well

you know that falling into a stream of lava is a horrible experience, yet you've never experienced it; some things you can infer from observation and questioning alone, not everything has to be tested out by you

ps.: i can already see this is going to end up as another cannibalism thread.... :twisted:


Well, I think those requiring exotic medicines will be first on the to-go list and may therefore actually miss out on the final entree on the twisted and exciting final human cuisine menu.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby anarky321 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 23:11:05

a question to the panic-stricken OP with the diseased family tree:

"are you planning to have kids?"
Tyler_JC:
"I love how every conversation on this website, given enough time, will turn into a discussion of cannibalism."
““Life is on the wire…the rest is just waiting””
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby hubbertspeak7777777 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 23:43:11

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ayoob', 'S')ounds like somebody's got a case of the Mondays!!!


You know what's funny is that while I was reading this guys post, it reminded me of that Milton guy. It's probably how he would react if he found out about peak oil.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby hubbertspeak7777777 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 23:43:50

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', 'a') question to the panic-stricken OP with the diseased family tree:

"are you planning to have kids?"


He should stick with adoption.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby mmasters » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 23:50:25

Welcome to the party. By the way Peak oil is only phase 1 of the rabbit hole. Your journey has just begun!
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby hubbertspeak7777777 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 23:59:32

I'm the exact oposite of the OP, I think it's exciting that life that is so uncertain. Life would be boring if we all lived to be 80. I could die tomorrow or I could live another 50 years or I could die sometime in between... I think that's exciting. Life is like watching a movie where you can't guess what happens next. Life would be so dull if everything were guranteed.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby anarky321 » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 00:01:13

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hubbertspeak7777777', 'I')'m the exact oposite of the OP, I think it's exciting that life that is so uncertain. Life would be boring if we all lived to be 80. I could die tomorrow or I could live another 50 years or I could die sometime in between... I think that's exciting. Life is like watching a movie where you can't guess what happens next. Life would be so dull if everything were guranteed.


"let the chips fall where they may"
Tyler_JC:
"I love how every conversation on this website, given enough time, will turn into a discussion of cannibalism."
““Life is on the wire…the rest is just waiting””
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby hubbertspeak7777777 » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 00:03:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hubbertspeak7777777', 'I')'m the exact oposite of the OP, I think it's exciting that life that is so uncertain. Life would be boring if we all lived to be 80. I could die tomorrow or I could live another 50 years or I could die sometime in between... I think that's exciting. Life is like watching a movie where you can't guess what happens next. Life would be so dull if everything were guranteed.


"let the chips fall where they may"


In life, only one thing is certain... none of us will get out of here alive!
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 02:40:51

WoefulOne, you have opened a can of worms that takes a while to absorb.

Be aware of the double-bind. You will find repeatedly as you study this thing that there do not appear to be any good outcomes, unless there are some pretty dramatic changes that honestly are almost certain not to happen, because people just aren't made that way. We wait until a disaster starts to unfold before taking any action. In this case, waiting until the disaster starts to unfold to do something will be WAY TOO LATE.

The consolation is that you have been blessed to live in the most interesting time in all of human history (my opinion). When you begin to appreciate just how devilish some of these problems are, you will be glad you are around to see the whole thing unfold. Competing for survival is what living is all about, right?

But you must get a grip on yourself. Don't try to learn it all at once. And don't try to share it with everyone you know in the next few weeks. Just study, prepare, revise your wordview, and make your own decisions about what is real and what is make believe.

But do hang around here. You will learn a lot. About the only thing the natives don't seem to like is excessive self-pity. Simply expressing fear is fine, though--just down dwell on it too long.
:)
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby steam_cannon » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 13:02:16

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'C')ompeting for survival is what living is all about, right?
Right as rain BigTex!

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'W')oefulOne, you have opened a can of worms that takes a while to absorb...

But you must get a grip on yourself. Don't try to learn it all at once.
Good advice...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'A')nd don't try to share it with everyone you know in the next few weeks. Just study, prepare, revise your wordview, and make your own decisions about what is real and what is make believe.
This may sound like odd advice but it's really pretty good. My wife is
from Ukraine, she has two masters degrees, she lived though the
Soviet Collapse, so this sort of stuff is not all that new to her. But
most Americans cannot conceive that economic problems or any sort
of problems can happen. Peak oil is becoming common knowledge,
something MSN economists talk about. However just a few years
ago it was sneered at as crackpot rubbish, even though it was
backed by solid studies. Global warming has also gotten into the
mainstream a little.

But honestly, try to understand that people have a hard time
accepting change until they are forced to or they have experienced
it. If you see a line at the gas pump, people won't believe it until
they see it themselves. That's human nature. Accepting science and
thinking ahead are not things most people are good at. That's not
to say these people are bad because of it, it's just human nature.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('BigTex', 'B')ut do hang around here. You will learn a lot. About the only thing
the natives don't seem to like is excessive self-pity. Simply
expressing fear is fine, though--just don't dwell on it too long.
Do hang around. But yeah, the natives here are fearless.
There are a lot of highly educated people here who discount
complaints as if you're just a whiny student who didn't do your
homework.

And philosophically, there are a large number of people here who don't
believe in gods or afterlife's, people who see no proof of an afterlife
and choose not to fear the reality that presents, life is how it it.
So when studies are saying things are going to change, these
people both understand the science and are ready to accept that
the change isn't going to be stopped by an outside force.
There's a lot of realism in the attitudes here. Pray if you like but it
won't prop up levies, that sort of thing.

Acceptance of any level of realism requires accepting some pretty
heavy things. So these are very fearless people and self-pity
doesn't play well...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hubbertspeak7777777', 'I')n life, only one thing is certain... none of us will get out of here alive!Yeah, a lot of people try not to think about that, but not us! :lol:
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby Ferretlover » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 13:10:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('steam_cannon', '
')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('hubbertspeak7777777', 'I')n life, only one thing is certain... none of us will get out of here alive!
Yeah, a lot of people try not to think about that, but not us! :lol:



How true! How true! One of the last bastions of people who can still think!
"Open the gates of hell!" ~Morgan Freeman's character in the movie, Olympus Has Fallen.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 16:43:26

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('TheDude', 'T')ruth lies somewhere in between, of course.

That's an inclusive "in between". It could be that Matt Savinar is telling it like it is.

However, the full on cornucopian position is highly unlikely. It either involves mankind eventually making it into space or something that includes population leveling out, exactly as perceived wisdom has it, and resources being infinitely substitutable, where necessary. I suspect that most cornies secretly have their fingers crossed that they can, at least, carry on with "normal" life for the rest of theirs. They don't care what happens after that.
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby BigTex » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 20:07:55

WoefulOne, I've been thinking about this today and I have a couple more suggestions for you.

First, you may want to think about changing your username. You just joined, so just re-join with another name.

You need something a little tougher sounding than WoefulOne. To get you started, I thought I would suggest a few:

PiedSniper
SuburbanNinja
CannibalVector
TheSpoiler
JohnPain
GrimCreeper
KungFuGrip
DoomWithAView

You get the idea. The best approach is to pretend you are creating a pro wrestler persona, and proceed accordingly.

Second, you need to read some books. DO NOT start with something like Kunstler's "The Long Emergency." Try something a little more low impact like "The End of Oil" by Paul Roberts. He is a journalist, not a doomer, so you get a little less alarmist approach to the material.

Read the 2002 version of "Limits to Growth". It will give you a broader view of the problems we will be looking at in the future, of which peak oil is only one.

Also, I would suggest something completely outside the peak oil arena, but more focused on human group behavior like "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds" by Charles Mackay. This one is a real classic. Highly recommended. You will understand your own fear better after reading it.

There are MANY peak oil books out there. Read some of them. Don't just rely on this and other forums for your information.
:)
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby kpeavey » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 22:04:13

mmasers wrote$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'W')elcome to the party. By the way Peak oil is only phase 1 of the rabbit hole. Your journey has just begun!


Just how deep is the rabbit hole?

Peak Oil
it's easiest to understand problem is transportation and higher fuel prices. From there you get financial problems, recession, depression and collapse. Cut back on transportation you have shortages of goods. This leads to higher prices and we've already seen where that goes. You also get people who can't get to work, don't go shopping, and goods that don't get delivered on time, if at all.

Oil is a complex substance and is used to make other things. Plastics being a key item. Increase the price of plastic by increasing the price f the feedstock, then reduce the volume, you go into the money problem above. There are literally thousands of goods produced from petroleum. If it not produced with oil, it is almost certainly transported with it.

Agriculture
Oil is used as a feedstock for fertilizers, pesticides, herbicides. 17% of the oil consumed in the US is in the food industry. Jack up the cost of growing food, you jack up the cost of the food. Now take some of those crops, use it to make ethanol. The result ends up being less food, this gets into higher prices, but the knock on effet is that sooner or later, someone goes hungry. This problem continues as oil production declines. This is in conjunction with aquifer depletion, climate change, honey bee colony collapse, wheat rust blight, soil salinization and erosion, urbanization of arable land, foreign ownership of agriculture corporations, commodity speculation, Ozone holes, and swarms of locusts.

Electricity
Oil is used to produce electricity in many areas. As population and economy grow, so does demand. Decrease the oil, you get power outages. These will occur more frequently, cover ever greater areas and last longer as the problem continues. Realize the use of electricity in storing cold food, pumping irrigation water, keeping business operating, and operating the computers at the banks where the money is, you start to see the dilemma with this one.

Substitutions
Coal is next in line to replace oil for electrical production. Here we encounter problems of pollution, converting power plants to coal, building new coal plants, CO2, and the smae issues of depletion found with oil, just delayed a few decades at best.

Global Warming
Summers get hotter, winters get colder as the planet we live on attempts to correct the human created imbalances in the environment. More air conditioner use puts a strain on the electrical grid, more winter heating drives up consumption of heating fuel and natural gas inventories. More energy consumption creates more pollution, the situation feeds itself. If the problem was limited to that, we'd have it licked, but there are plenty of other permutations to consider. Hotter weather dries up the soil, more irrigation needed in conjunction with dropping water levels, damaged crops means less food/fiber/fuel, affects the insects, more mosqitos bearing disease, fewer bees pollenating crops, greater financial burden on people and businesses resulting in less spending and a recession from there, increased death rate from heat stroke and hypothermia, malaria moving north, everyone gets the flu...

Global Competition
Without the oil to keep our economy growing, we go down. The same is true in every country in the world. Whoever has control of the oil will stay afloat at the expense of those without. No major country can allow another country to have control. Want to talk about modern weapons?

Government
The government must take action as troubles are encountered or the people will vote them out of office or revolt. They will do what is necessary. This gets into some interesting subjects. FEMA camps, blackwater, executive orders, the Patriot Act, suspension of Habeas Corpus/Posse Commitatus/the Constitution, conscription.

A guy named Hobbes
The money goes to shit, the blackout has lasted 2 weeks, someone just invaded someone else, been out of work for months, global warming dried up the city water supply, the local govt closed the schools due to a funding crisis as well as turned off the street lights, and there is no food in the house. Exactly how thin is the veneer called Society?

Will the crash be slow, taking decades or run us over like a freight train?
Does it all start in earnest when the banks open in the morning?
How far will the guy up the street go to feed his kids?
How far will you go to defend your kids' food?
What do you do when neither you nor your neighbor has food? Gonna trade kids for dinner?
Will the emergency government [s]send[/s] force your family to live in a tent in the midwest to harvest grain by hand? What happens if you refuse?
What level of government will seize your solar panels to use "for the public good"
Does the government "place" individuals at your farm to assist in food production?
How are you going to wipe your ass when the government shits all over you?
Does Iran get a nuke?
Does China use theirs?
The Russians can park a sub just off the atlantic seaboard, the military would have 5 minutes of warning, you would never know what hit.

The rabbit hole is deeper still than this. We have not begun to talk about the survivors.

The next time you take a pill, take the blue one.
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984
_____

twenty centuries of stony sleep were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle, and what rough beast, its hour come round at last, slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
-George Yeats
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Re: New to "Peak Oil"

Unread postby Mechman » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 22:52:20

Greetings WoefulOne,

I apologize for the members that have posted harsh words thinking your first post was a joke and for those that have lost the kindness of the heart for others. They may have thought that a new person would post in the Welcome section or in the Psychology section. Moderators may want to move this thread to the Psychology section for proper consideration.

Your issues appear mostly related to the Psychology forum and the Planning For The Future forum. There is much information there with people starting to solve the Peak Oil issues for their own understanding and development.

There was a poster (along with many other threads in that forum)that had similar “no way out” thought patterns that can trap others into unproductive thoughts and actions.

http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic33455.html


Abacourix: I really, truly believe there is no way out. No matter how experienced a woodsman or farmer you are; there is NO amount of preparation that can possibly prepare oneself for the full range of consequences of peak oil.

Several years ago, I went into a severe psychotic shock after having learned about peak oil. I went CRAZY with it.

I decided to go the furthest possible means with my PO preparation - namely, learning how to thrive as a hunter-gatherer. I didn't like the idea of being a gardener or farmer, because that required a permanent residence (which can be attacked and stolen and taken over) farming requires climatic stability - and in the age of climatic change, this doesn't look very positive!

I have learned many good things. I am very adept at trapping deer; pounding cattail rhizomes for flour, making fire from a bow-drill and all sorts of wonderful skills associated with living without any reliance on modern technology whatsoever. I chose this route because I wanted to be prepared for the worst possible scenario that I could.

But alas, several years later, I still don't feel as though I am safe, at all. The more I think about it, the more I recognize that there are so many dangers completely outside of the range of an individual human being's influence. This includes widespread diseases and biological warfare; being in the wrong place at the wrong time (and other accidents), nuclear warheads, ecosystems being depleted by OTHER people wanting to survive.

I think I am going to die soon, no matter what.

________________________________

You can read the helpful sections their and refer to the details there.

My response to Alacourix would also apply to you even if you have not done any preps for the Peak Oil and related crisis’s:

Hello Abacourix,

What I have below might be of help.

>I really, truly believe there is no way out. No matter how experienced a woodsman or farmer you are; there is NO amount of preparation that can possibly prepare oneself for the full range of consequences of peak oil.

Very true, none of us will get out of life alive. However there are many ways to go, generally good and bad: as in long happy life and die peacefully in your sleep vs. fear, pain, suffering, torture, rape and a nasty death.

>I decided to go the furthest possible means with my PO preparation - namely, learning how to thrive as a hunter-gatherer. I didn't like the idea of being a gardener or farmer, because that required a permanent residence (which can be attacked and stolen and taken over) farming requires climatic stability - and in the age of climatic change, this doesn't look very positive!

Well done, you are better off than most people! Back in the 1980’s I was almost sure the Russians were going to nuke us and the best thing left to eat would be a two headed squirrel if I survived the attack and any squirrels survived. I really expected to die if that happened in the 1980’s because there was nothing I could do about it at that time. There were some close calls with the Russians but there was not WW III. Y2K was a small risk (10% chance of big problems, 10% chance of medium problems, 10% chance of small problems, and 70% chance of nothing at all) but I really did not expect much to happen. I was prepared for all but the 10% big problems and just did not have the resources to do any better.

Peak Oil is different than the WW III nuking in the 1980’s and Y2K risk, it will happen and soon and it will kick all of our asses in one way or another. The world that we have grown up in must stop and change. We have all grown up in a energy “Summer” we are now in a energy “Fall” and a harsh “Winter” is coming. None of us will live long enough to see another energy “Summer” but some of us will live to see a new energy “Spring”. Part of this change is risk management and part of the change is getting ready to be happy or sad with less. Since you have practiced and are prepared to be happy with less, the changes that are coming will not hurt you or hurt you as much. I am still getting prepared but I believe this change is necessary and good to get people and culture responsible again. The energy party was fun and the clean up is going suck for most but you will probably be OK.

>But alas, several years later, I still don't feel as though I am safe, at all. The more I think about it, the more I recognize that there are so many dangers completely outside of the range of an individual human being's influence. This includes widespread diseases and biological warfare; being in the wrong place at the wrong time (and other accidents), nuclear warheads, ecosystems being depleted by OTHER people wanting to survive.

The first step in avoiding a trap is to know of its existence and then plan to not get caught in the trap. You might not feel safe but you actually are much safer than most. Even chance favors the prepared mind, just like you. By knowing that there are diseases and possible biological warfare you can do something about it. Most of these things would burn out in months in your area. As long as you are not a wage slave like me paying off debt, you can sit back avoid others and pop out when things are better. I will be a slave for a about four more years and then I too can watch the world spin from a distance. I cannot save everyone but I would be able to save myself and some of those around me. Even big strong bears hibernate for the bad times of winter. Even if you are big bear strong and tuff, just chill out away from others and you will be OK. Nukes are very nasty and very destructive with both severe short term and long term effects. Stay away from down towns of big cities and have a way to get out of the down wind without being in the mass of refugees and you will be OK. Ecosystems damage will happen slowly and you can move around. There is some great wisdom in staying at least 50 feet above sea level. If a sever drought hits one year, you should already have some supplies to make it to another year or have the ability to go to another area that is not screwed up. If holding up in one location is not good, just travel by RV on land and sailboat on water. Remember, the principle of limited entropy in the world will generally protect you: Things can only get screwed up so much at any one time so go to the areas that are not so screwed up.

>I think I am going to die soon, no matter what.

Possible for anyone but not very likely. It is best not to dwell on creepy thoughts even if they can happen. There is no good reason to dwell on low probability issues. Wasteful of your limited resources. Focus on what you can do, not what you can’t do. You have worked hard and you knowledge and training will make a difference by giving you options that most don’t have. You cannot stop death, none of us are immortal, but you can put it off for a very long time if you are not very old and you want to live.

If you want some inspiration from great people who should so well in PO times without having to read lots of books check out:

Peak oil: A primer on remaining human
http://hydrocarbonman.com/index.html

Druid perspectives on nature, culture, and the future of industrial society
http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/

And last but not least, Jesus Christ really does love you. I am not talking about Churchianity or man’s interpretation of spiritually mixed with local culture often called religion. I am talking about pulling out your Bible and letting it talk to you. It will if you want it too.

You might have something like:

http://hydrocarbonman.com/blogs/peak_pessimism.htm

“One night the pressure got to me. I went outside to finally have it out with God. The sky was filled with stars - an unusual sight in the city - so I figured someone must be home up there. If you've seen the movie Forrest Gump - in which Lieutenant Dan, who lost both legs in Vietnam, lashes himself to the mast of a shrimp boat during a hurricane and screams at God, "Is that all you've got?" - then you know the mood I was in. I don't think I actually said, "Damn you!" but I came close. I went out to nail my list of grievances to the door of the universe: no job, no money for diapers, no retirement, no security for my kids.
Then something happened that probably happens more often than we know when people are under such stress: the sky spoke back. What I "heard" in response to my tirade astonished me, shut me up, and set the course of my life for the next 15 years (and still going). Now I'll share it with you:
The Voice calmly said, "If you believe that the future is just more of the same, a long highway climbing, uninterrupted, all the way to the horizon, then you are right; you'd better have a good job, health insurance, a 401k plan, and a college fund for the kids. You'd better know how to navigate corporate politics, the stock market, and the shark-infested waters of the IRS.
"But if you consider for a moment that the future is not more of the same, but is radically different from anything you've ever known, then you are going to need different tools and different skills to meet it. You might need to know how to live on much less, grow your own food, and overcome a hundred crippling consumerist addictions. You might need to learn a whole new way of thinking. The trouble you're in is not a bad place to start."
That was it. No thunder, no lightning. Just a little something for me to think about. I've been thinking about it ever since. I started looking at the world without my "the-future-is-today-only-moreso" bias and quickly realized the storm clouds were already gathering on the horizon, for all to see: peak oil, climate change, water shortage, terrifying vulnerability to technology, industrial agriculture, and a dizzying host of toxic waste products in our water and food supply. And that was just the short list. Our way of life was obviously not sustainable. Why hadn't I seen it sooner?”

Take care like you have been doing!

_____________________________________________________
End of my section to Abacourix but there is much hope for people that what to do something to improve their specific conditions in the "Psychology" forum and in the "Planning For The Future" forum


You will have to start doing preps to prepare yourself for what must happen without divine intervention, which I don’t think God will give, at least not on a fully planetary basis. God gave us a chance to have a great world and we blew it over 30 to 40 years ago. It is our mess now an we will have to clean it up the hard way. How hard it hits you personally will depend on your specific circumstances. Preparing will not stop the bad things from happening to the world but they will greatly ease what might happen in your specific life and circumstances.

Most meds can be stored and their might be alternate solutions that can be used. You might think a specific medical condition is unique but it really is just a extension of other necessities food, water, air, shelter, clothes, tools, etc. You store food and water, then also store your specific medicine, etc. Just store what you cannot make yourself or trade for in a energy and money poor future.

Good luck in your preps!
Mark

Been getting out of the "Beast" for 3 years and counting. Get a helmet as quick as you can.
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