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I am very worried about oil prices.

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby emersonbiggins » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 12:53:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'A')hem... Diesel demand is driving the price of oil up.

The diesel story is quite compelling and is a critical component of the peak oil phenomenon, explaining why diesel prices are rising faster than gasoline, but it does not explain the current surge in prices of non-diesel oil products, or in the sudden surge of crude oil prices during a time of increasing supplies and stalling demand, even for diesel.

In fact, if your story was reality then we should expect to see gasoline prices falling as gasoline assumed a co-production market status. It has not. In fact, if diesel was the whole story then we should expect to see heavier crude prices rising fastest since they tend to produce more diesel per barrel; but they are not.


I believe there remains quite limited refining capacity (and, therefore, competition) for the heavier crudes, vs. sweet light, making an accurate assessment using heavy prices almost impossible, despite their inherent value in creating finished products such as diesel.

Also, where are you finding "stalling demand" for diesel?

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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby sittinguy » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 14:26:14

BigTex, has it rite.
THE PRICE OF GAS DOES NOT MATTER!!!!

as long as its availible.

The first shortage should be very enlightening for some, terror, panic, hording for some. And for a few of us doomers,,,,,,,,, entertaining

As for the sleeping problem, do what I do ,,,,, Ambien :)
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby LoneSnark » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 17:02:16

To the best of my knowledge only third world governments have implimented price controls, and without them shortages are very hard to come by. As such, to say the price does not matter as long as it is available is akin to saying the enlightenment of which you speak, namely terror, panic, entertainment, will not likely occur.
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby basil_hayden » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 17:12:31

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'A')verage gas prices is not even $3.30 in the US and yet we are seeing huge demand destruction. Just look at EIA's weekly gas consumption figures and you will understand that people react to these high prices.

Prius and small car sales are exploding and people stopped buying SUVs. Imagine what is going to happen when it hits $4/gl

So the truth of the matter is, demand destruction will push the oil prices down.

Period.


Not. Period.

Every gallon we don't burn, Chindia does. There is no significant demand destruction yet, and oil prices will not come down significantly either.
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby perdition79 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 02:25:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'E')very gallon we don't burn, Chindia does. There is no significant demand destruction yet, and oil prices will not come down significantly either.


Yes, that's exactly right. If we had rep points on this forum, I'd give you rep for that. That's how I explain the danger of conservation to anyone who complains about gas prices. I lead with "Is America the only nation on the planet?"

What worries me more is that China and India both have higher rates of GDP growth than America. China's economy doubles in size every seven years or so. If we don't maintain our stranglehold over 25% of the oil, prices might actually rise faster if China has a more readily available supply.
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby mos6507 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 04:19:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', '
')That's how I explain the danger of conservation to anyone who complains about gas prices. I lead with "Is America the only nation on the planet?"


How does that make conservation "dangerous"? Ultimately we're all going to barter over carbon credits anyway. We might as well lead by example.
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby Ainan » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 09:13:44

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('jlw61', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('GreenOil08', 'I') sure feel sorry for all those computer and tech nerds out there, they won't have a damn thing to do


Acually, as long as hospitals, government, and other vital industries continue to use computers (and they will) and have electricity (they will be the last to lose it) many of us "nerds" will have jobs. The smart ones will have backup plans for when they lose their jobs.

Also, I can guarantee you that when the time comes, low power computer solutions (which should have been out for 10 years) will appear. The damn things use 12v DC and the only reason they use so much power now is to give the biggest bang for the buck. Most of my customers could use computers 1/3 as powerful as the what they use and the smart ones have good software solutions supportable using 5+ year old desktops.

The real worry in price is in how your locality is situated and how its citizens will react. If you don't have enough farms within a reasonable distance of the population, food will become much more expensive and even difficult to find.

If you have a large base of people depending on government for welfare, jobs, business... that could be bad also as government will begin losing its ability to collect taxes or begin taking over large numbers of homes and making the previous owners serfs.

However, I'm not going to lose sleep over price unless it starts getting scarce while we still rely on the ICE... at which point it's bug-out time. Once I've bugged-out I have and can once again live without cars, computers, A/C and [s]iPods[/s] other luxeries, thank you very much.


There are quite a few low energy computers out these days using technology created for embedded systems. The one linked below 5w max, 500mhz, ubuntu or gentoo pre-installed, will do anything most users need at a tiny fraction of the energy cost. The nutritional energy in a banana could run this thing at max for 25.5 hours @ 110 Cals for the banana. You can check if thats right after you find a way to feed bananas to it. :-D

http://www.fit-pc.com/new/
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby jlw61 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 09:39:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ainan', 'T')here are quite a few low energy computers out these days using technology created for embedded systems. The one linked below 5w max, 500mhz, ubuntu or gentoo pre-installed, will do anything most users need at a tiny fraction of the energy cost. The nutritional energy in a banana could run this thing at max for 25.5 hours @ 110 Cals for the banana. You can check if thats right after you find a way to feed bananas to it. :-D

http://www.fit-pc.com/new/


FANTASTIC! Thanks for the link!!! I want one!
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby misterno » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 14:41:48

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'E')very gallon we don't burn, Chindia does. There is no significant demand destruction yet, and oil prices will not come down significantly either.


Yes, that's exactly right. If we had rep points on this forum, I'd give you rep for that. That's how I explain the danger of conservation to anyone who complains about gas prices. I lead with "Is America the only nation on the planet?"

What worries me more is that China and India both have higher rates of GDP growth than America. China's economy doubles in size every seven years or so. If we don't maintain our stranglehold over 25% of the oil, prices might actually rise faster if China has a more readily available supply.


You are wrong

Demand destruction is huge in US so much so that the refineries are expected to lose money this year due to the fact that gas prices not going up but oil is going up. So they are squeezed

Now how can you imagine US having a much higher per capita income and much lower gas prices will have a demand destruction and Chindia with higher gas prices and much lower per capita income is not going to have DRASTIC demand destruction.

It is so clear so obvious. Demand will go down
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby KaiserCesar06 » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 14:51:40

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('perdition79', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('basil_hayden', 'E')very gallon we don't burn, Chindia does. There is no significant demand destruction yet, and oil prices will not come down significantly either.


Yes, that's exactly right. If we had rep points on this forum, I'd give you rep for that. That's how I explain the danger of conservation to anyone who complains about gas prices. I lead with "Is America the only nation on the planet?"

What worries me more is that China and India both have higher rates of GDP growth than America. China's economy doubles in size every seven years or so. If we don't maintain our stranglehold over 25% of the oil, prices might actually rise faster if China has a more readily available supply.


You are wrong

Demand destruction is huge in US so much so that the refineries are expected to lose money this year due to the fact that gas prices not going up but oil is going up. So they are squeezed

Now how can you imagine US having a much higher per capita income and much lower gas prices will have a demand destruction and Chindia with higher gas prices and much lower per capita income is not going to have DRASTIC demand destruction.

It is so clear so obvious. Demand will go down


Refineries are squeezed so people are going to use less energy? Until the refineries change from being "squeezed" to "passing on costs to consumers to stay alive" there won't be significant demand destruction. Also, the OP said that there isn't any demand destruction, yet, due to Chinindia. Their demand will continue to grow in the near-term, not only due to more people driving and living in cities, but a lot more people in general. Yes, oil will eventually get ridiculous and they will stop, or their growth will hit a wall, and demand will destruct, but no soon enough to bring the oil price down soon.
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Sat 15 Mar 2008, 15:04:14

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('pup55', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I') am worried. Can anyone else sleep at night?


Back in the 70's it was a lot worse. There were problems actually getting fuel, because of shortages in 1973-4 and 1979.

Now, most of us in western countries can get all of the fuel we want, we just have to pay more monopoly money to get it.

When the shortages hit, such as those that have happened in Africa, then you really will have something to worry about.

There are some issues right now up in Canada, I understand.


No one is willing to let prices rise as fast as they should to reflect the real cost of burning ever scarcer oil. We felt the slightest twinge of shortage last year (actually it was quite severe in some local areas for certain blends, diesel was hard to come by in South Dakota for a while). This year because gas should be over about $4 right now just to keep the market signal nearly optimal we will see more evidence of shortages. We will also hear renewed calls for price caps which will only exacerbate the problem. Depending on where we are at in the time development of the post peak issue you could see long lines at the pump again this summer.
I return to you now at the turning of the tide.
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby perdition79 » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 02:33:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('misterno', 'N')ow how can you imagine US having a much higher per capita income and much lower gas prices will have a demand destruction and Chindia with higher gas prices and much lower per capita income is not going to have DRASTIC demand destruction.


Let's establish one thing: America is not the only nation on the planet. The whole world will feel the impact of its collapse, but won't close up shop just because the biggest customer leaves town. At least as long as there's oil to be burned by everyone else. Oil is money, remember?

The economies of China and India grow FASTER than that of America. China has banned bicycles in some cities, forcing increased consumption of gas and diesel. Their government subsidizes motor fuel to promote economic growth. The United States is not India or China's only customer; both nations will be able to serve as a sweatshop to Europe, Asia, and South America long after the U.S. goes down.

Demand destruction in the U.S. means more fuel for everyone else in the world. Prices go up because nations with higher rates of growth consume increasingly more oil. More available fuel for China and India just fans the flames of their economic growth.

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'I')t is so clear so obvious. Demand will go down


You're right. Demand will go down in America, but will increase elsewhere. Jevon's Paradox never fails.
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Re: I am very worried about oil prices.

Unread postby Gandalf_the_White » Sun 16 Mar 2008, 03:00:07

For every American who gets knocked out of the market to consume gasoline there are ten Chinese and another ten Indians waiting to get in. America established it's oil infrastructure and way of life when oil was cheap so expensive oil is a shock to our system, not so much so to those who are getting in with a little more reasonable perspective on what to expect from what remains of the world's oil supply. It does sound odd, but european nations are already handling $6 per gallon, but they did not build sprawling cities where you have to drive ten miles to get anything. They have compact little cities or cosmopolitan hubs with great rail service and bus lines and a very nice train service that can get you almost anywhere you want to go. Europe is well situated to handle peak oil. They will have some issues, as we see the gazprom worries, but America is so far behind in it's, well in even acknowledging that there is an energy issue to be faced.
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