[FireJack]

We all know that poorer countries are having problems with supply but how long until the richer countries start seeing shortages?

[DantesPeak]

Here's an earlier thread about the same subject:


GS Updates Superspike Report/Sees $85 Oil Year End [Sep 17]
http://www.peakoil.com/fortopic32229.html

[lexicon]

Here's a link to their prediction from 2005 for what would happen to the price of oil in the next few years:

Published on 30 Mar 2005 by MSN Money. Archived on 31 Mar 2005.
Goldman Sachs: Oil Could Spike to $105

by Reuters staff

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil markets have entered a ``super-spike'' period that could see 1970's-style price surges as high as $105 a barrel, investment bank Goldman Sachs said in a research report.

Goldman's Global Investment Research note also raised the bank's 2005 and 2006 New York Mercantile Exchange crude price forecasts to $50 and $55 respectively, from $41 and $40.

These forecasts sit at the top of a table of predictions from 25 analysts, consultants and government bodies surveyed by Reuters.

``We believe oil markets may have entered the early stages of what we have referred to as a ``super spike'' period -- a multi-year trading band of oil prices high enough to meaningfully reduce energy consumption and recreate a spare capacity cushion only after which will lower energy prices return,'' Goldman's analysts wrote.

http://www.energybulletin.net/5017.html

That prediction came true today:

Oil settles above $105 on weak dollar
As forecasters cut their oil demand growth forecasts, crude prices fluctuate after briefly spiking to $105.97 a barrel.

Last Updated: March 6, 2008: 3:52 PM EST

NEW YORK (AP) -- Crude oil futures rose to another record close Thursday, boosted once more by the dollar's continuing slide to new lows against the euro.

At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices extended their own advance toward record levels. The national average price of a gallon of gas rose 0.7 cent overnight to $3.185, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Gas prices are following oil higher, and are expected to peak this spring well above last May's record of $3.227 a gallon.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/03/06/markets ... /index.htm

[heroineworshipper]

The part about reducing consumption didn't happen. Free credit in response to rising prices keeps the SUV's flowing out of the dealers.

[joeltrout]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('heroineworshipper', 'F')ree credit in response to rising prices keeps the SUV's flowing out of the dealers.

[patience]

If wheat stays around $20/bu, look for SUV's at yard sales so J6P can buy bread.

[DantesPeak]

I belive I've posted the actual 'suprespike' report a year or two back. Actually it is not a prediction that oil would hit $105 but a possibility that it could in the right political circumstances.

Actually those circumstances don't exist right now, so yes I am stating that even the superspike report underestimated, well, the PO superspike we now find ourselves in.

[AirlinePilot]

I don't see the demand balance going the right way either for the pricing to adjust as they mention. At least not until we get much higher gas/diesel/crude prices. We are only in the very beginnings of slowing the growth at the moment.

[lawnchair]

Just for giggles, a few of our "superspike" threads from three years ago this week.

http://peakoil.com/fortopic6485.html

http://peakoil.com/fortopic6440.html

[BigTex]

"When we wrote that thing I had no idea that I was going to be the Treasury Secretary when oil hit $105 a barrel."

[yesplease]

I think the "superspike" included the assumption that the dollar was still around 120, which it was in 2005. If our currency had lost so much of it's value this would only be ~$65. But, thanks to the government printing their way out of debt, we get to see $100+ oil. Coincidentally, this is also a way to curb the consumption of the world's largest oil consumer.

[DantesPeak]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') think the "superspike" included the assumption that the dollar was still around 120, which it was in 2005. If our currency had lost so much of it's value this would only be ~$65. But, thanks to the government printing their way out of debt, we get to see $100+ oil. Coincidentally, this is also a way to curb the consumption of the world's largest oil consumer.

[yesplease]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('DantesPeak', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', 'I') think the "superspike" included the assumption that the dollar was still around 120, which it was in 2005. If our currency had lost so much of it's value this would only be ~$65. But, thanks to the government printing their way out of debt, we get to see $100+ oil. Coincidentally, this is also a way to curb the consumption of the world's largest oil consumer.

[seahorse2]

We always try and predict the price of oil, but, let's try to pick the pay for Goldman Sachs CEO for 2008.
FYI, the CEO of Goldman received a pay package in excess of $100 million dollars for 2007 (not bad). Reuters
So, any guesses as to how much he will make this year? and will 2008 pay package exceed 2007? Keep in mind, that despite the housing downturn, with inflation running conservatively at 4%, his pay needs to go up just maintain that 1000 square foot house and keep eating all those canned beenie weenies.

[Ferretlover]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse2', 'W')e always try and predict the price of oil, but, let's try to pick the pay for Goldman Sachs CEO for 2008.
FYI, the CEO of Goldman received a pay package in excess of $100 million dollars for 2007 (not bad).
Reuters

[gnm]

Nah they will just pay his piggy ass in gold bullion...



-G

[Alanintx]

I have not seen this report posted anywhere. I think this is as good a forecast for near term and long term prices and the problems in supply/demand as I have seen. It makes a compelling case for a near term pullback, but a long term increase to $148/bbl.
http://www.odac-info.org/sites/odac.pos ... _Watch.pdf

[yull]

I wouldn't be surprised at a pullback, to perhaps say $100. The price is not going to go up steadily after all, there will be spikes upwards and spikes downwards. The trend is definitely sharply upwards though.

I think we will reach $148 this year, perhaps within just a few months. Things suggest that the terminal decline in word oil production is almost here, if not already here. The signs lately are ominous and once the decline sets in even the price increases of the last few years are going to be outdated with regards to predicting the price from here. There are already signs the oil price rises have entered a new, different phase, more rapid than before, suggesting a tipping point into the new reality many have been predicting for all these years.

[Ferretlover]

Nice find, Alanintx.

[Alanintx]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'N')ice find, Alanintx.