[thuja]

OK - my prediction has been that we are entering a period that will reflect historical eras. Not everything will be the same but there could be remarkable similarities. Thus my thesis that we will reexperience the 70's, then the 30's, then the 1890's then....the 1400's?

Starting off, we are in the process of entering a period not too disimilar from the 70's with stagflation, high energy prices, high unemployment rates and stagnating wages.

This is likely to be followed by a 1930's style Depression in which unemployment levels skyrocket, bankruptcy is endemic, food and fuel become expensive and scarce for many and outright penury is the lot of a substantial portion of 1st Worlders.

At some point we will morph into a 19th century situation (1890's) where power in the form of electricity and fuel become very expensive and scarce to the point where whole communities must revert to life without, or with very intermittent supplies. There will still be very wealthy areas and we will still see car and heavy machine usage- just at a much lesser level...similar to the 19th century.

And after that...hmmm...prognostications? I can't see a way out of this one but it doesn't look good. Even the 19th century had abundant coal. Even that may be lacking 30 years hence.

[manu]

Yes, or it could go back to the 1400's in a week if there is a nuclear war.

[anarky321]

absolutely not

the current situation is absolutely unprecedented in so many ways that what we are about to step into will be a whole new paradigm

it might seem logical that since the curve is rather symmetrical on both sides that the decades that follow peak will be similar to their counterparts on the other side of the curve, but this is not so

[wisconsin_cur]

The OP did not dictate how fast we might move through these stages so I suppose that we could see it... I would question the 1400's at least not without a large gap of time.

If there are people there is going to be a lot of stuff laying around. Even in some sudden crash, after the survivors get a couple of years of subsistence survival under their belt they will turn their attention to using those resources "left behind." We will begin to relearn, often by hard experience, some of the skills of the past.

Add to this the unknowable, the fact that we do not know what unexpected valor, luck, hate or destruction might befall us I don't know if we can see too far beyond that 1930's stage. Doesn't mean we don't plan for it or prepare for it, only that we do not know exactly what it is that we are preparing for so best to prepare for the worse.

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', '
')what we are about to step into will be a whole new paradigm

[kpeavey]

There are aspects of modern technology that will hold on longer than others. There are lifestyle aspects of previous generations that will be more economical as fuel prices rise.

Imagine a guy on a horse and wagon delivering ice blocks to homes, making appointments on his cell phone.

Firewood cut down with a solar PV powered electric chainsaw, being seasoned in a solar kiln.

Community gardens in an unused soccer field prepared with a rototiller running on ethanol.

Parking garages near City Hall...serving as livery stables and housing a farmer's market.

Glass stripped from downtown buildings, used to build backyard greenhouses.


The things of today will be the salvage of tomorrow. It will take centuries for the last remnants of today to disappear. When it is finally gone, the world will look like it did in the time of the Romans, Vikings, or Mayans. While it is impossible to predict the events of the Transition, the outcome is entirely predictable: self-sufficient small communities relying on local resources, low energy lifestyles, limited refined metals, lots of glass, clay and wood.

[aflurry]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mos6507', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('anarky321', '
')what we are about to step into will be a whole new paradigm

[KingM]

The last thing to be manufactured in a complete collapse will be ammunition. People would be firing antique, well-maintained firearms for hundreds of years. So wars will continue to look more or less modern. Yeah!

[efarmer]

I believe we will find a society that lives primarily underground
to keep from having to throw energy at the ambient / habitat
differential temperature and that will mainly grows or allows
plant and crop growth on the surface area to the greatest extent
possible. It is the only thing that makes any long term sense in
a lower energy world. I do very much think you are on an
accurate analogy Thuja until the coal hits peak. I hope my
Mole People theory does not insult a bunch of perfectly happy
zombie advocates. To sweeten the deal, let's say the mole people
like firearms and tunnel into each other's burrow to steal stuff.

[dinopello]

What is the fate of the people here?

[Pops]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('kpeavey', 'T')here are aspects of modern technology that will hold on longer than others. There are lifestyle aspects of previous generations that will be more economical as fuel prices rise.

[LoneSnark]

It is very difficult to un-learn technology. The future is going to be awash with cell phones no matter what happens. Not even a nuclear war would stop their use. Both the handsets and the cell stations are relatively small and can be shielded. The survivors will skury to the surface to rebuild the downed towers and repair the cut fiber optic cables.

[Tyler_JC]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '[')url=http://www.alcor.org/]What is the fate of the people here?[/url]

[bodigami]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '[')url=http://www.alcor.org/]What is the fate of the people here?[/url]

[dooberheim]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('dinopello', '[')url=http://www.alcor.org/]What is the fate of the people here?[/url]

[dorlomin]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('thuja', 'O')K - my prediction has been that we are entering a period that will reflect historical eras. Not everything will be the same but there could be remarkable similarities. Thus my thesis that we will reexperience the 70's, then the 30's, then the 1890's then....the 1400's?

Starting off, we are in the process of entering a period not too disimilar from the 70's with stagflation, high energy prices, high unemployment rates and stagnating wages.

This is likely to be followed by a 1930's style Depression in which unemployment levels skyrocket, bankruptcy is endemic, food and fuel become expensive and scarce for many and outright penury is the lot of a substantial portion of 1st Worlders.

At some point we will morph into a 19th century situation (1890's) where power in the form of electricity and fuel become very expensive and scarce to the point where whole communities must revert to life without, or with very intermittent supplies. There will still be very wealthy areas and we will still see car and heavy machine usage- just at a much lesser level...similar to the 19th century.

And after that...hmmm...prognostications? I can't see a way out of this one but it doesn't look good. Even the 19th century had abundant coal. Even that may be lacking 30 years hence.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('efarmer', 'I') believe we will find a society that lives primarily underground
to keep from having to throw energy at the ambient / habitat
differential temperature and that will mainly grows or allows
plant and crop growth on the surface area to the greatest extent
possible. It is the only thing that makes any long term sense in
a lower energy world. I do very much think you are on an
accurate analogy Thuja until the coal hits peak. I hope my
Mole People theory does not insult a bunch of perfectly happy
zombie advocates. To sweeten the deal, let's say the mole people
like firearms and tunnel into each other's burrow to steal stuff.

[Concerned]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', 'I')t is very difficult to un-learn technology. The future is going to be awash with cell phones no matter what happens. Not even a nuclear war would stop their use. Both the handsets and the cell stations are relatively small and can be shielded. The survivors will skury to the surface to rebuild the downed towers and repair the cut fiber optic cables.

[LoneSnark]

Concerned, like I said, technology is not as fragile as you pretend. A ravaged African country does not have any of the infrastructure you speak of, yet the citizens have and operate cell phones.

The work to produce and program the cell phones has already been done. There are billions of the handsets in the world already. They do not stop working just because the factory that made them does not. Their batteries will die and need to be replaced with whatever is available, be it homemade acid batteries or a hand-crank, the devices are designed to be battery powered and have advanced power regulation hardware built in.

The same goes for most technology. It is not tied to its current pattern of use. Most vehicles can operate on biofuels and the power grid does not care where its electricity comes from, be it coal, hydroelectric, or solar.

Modern laptops have power saving modes for battery operation. They can easily be powered indefinitely off a single $200 solar panel. (of course, moving parts do wear out; but solid-state hard-drives are on the way, extending a laptop's life-span from two decades to hundreds of years).

[mos6507]

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('LoneSnark', '
')Modern laptops have power saving modes for battery operation. They can easily be powered indefinitely off a single $200 solar panel. (of course, moving parts do wear out; but solid-state hard-drives are on the way, extending a laptop's life-span from two decades to hundreds of years).