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THE Carlyle Group Thread (merged)

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General interest discussions, not necessarily related to depletion.

Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby benzoil » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 09:26:03

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I') hope the entire US/Western Oligarchy goes down and joins the rest of us in the food lines. If I had one wish, it would be for the east to rise up and put the icing on the cake by dumping those damn dollars and burying the oligarchs with them.


Er...as long as they wait until I can move some savings into Loonies. Or anything, in fact, other than US dollars.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby Heineken » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 09:35:15

This is big news. Events like this can launch depressions.

Perhaps the dike is giving way, its cracks no longer pluggable.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby Heineken » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 09:37:00

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I') hope the entire US/Western Oligarchy goes down and joins the rest of us in the food lines. If I had one wish, it would be for the east to rise up and put the icing on the cake by dumping those damn dollars and burying the oligarchs with them.


And so you get Eastern oligarchs? No thanks. We had a taste of those in WWII, and they're even worse than ours.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby Micki » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 09:53:39

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'C')arlyle Group? Like in "the" Carlyle Group, the creepy private equity in which Bush Senior mingle with members of the Bin Laden family? So, it's plummeting? Good news


This company seems to be owned by the carlyle group.
It however increases the risk of war (well not this even alone but the deteriorting economy), which of course is profitable to Carlyle group.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby dinopello » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 09:56:06

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Heineken', 'T')his is big news. Events like this can launch depressions.


I don't know about depressions, but this is exactly what needs to happen more, IMO. Maybe a half-dozen more of these "equity capital" groups and a large bank or two. A lot of innocent (or at least ignorant) people will get slammed but what can you do? If this stuff doesn't clear then it just keeps festering.

The problem is stated

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'B')ut hopes for refinancing fell apart after some lenders said the value of the collateral had declined further,


There never was the "value" in collateral that was claimed on paper. This is why I think some may be ok, and others will suffer - and they should. There were a whole lot of loans being made on poorly understood assets or business plans. No due-diligence legwork being done (e.g. assessments, audits) and just assumptions of continued asset appreciation. I'll bet most of these big banks that are in trouble still have no idea what their loan collateral is even worth.

But some (few to be sure) institutions never got sucked into that (as much). They made loans but only after sending out their own assessors, pouring over the business plans, understanding the business or property they were making (or acquiring) the loan or providing equity capital for. These guys will be picking up all the pieces for pennies on the dollar (which is good for them assuming the dollar is still worth more than a few pennies!) - some with foreign partners unfortunately.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby dorlomin » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 10:20:59

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('seahorse', 'I') hope the entire US/Western Oligarchy goes down and joins the rest of us in the food lines. If I had one wish, it would be for the east to rise up and put the icing on the cake by dumping those damn dollars and burying the oligarchs with them.
We are the US/ Western oligarchy so far as the rest of the world is concerned. We westerners are the ones consuming all the resources and have spent centuaries exploiting other people.

Besides this will only be a transfer of wealth from the Fed to the banks. The banks will take the assets of the hedge funds and deposit them for cash with the fed.

There will be winners and losers on wall street, but losers and more losers amoung the worlds poor.

What galls me is that it seems that we are now socialising the costs of poor risk judgements by financial institutions. Removing the core motivators of Adam Smiths invisible hand. Risk vs reward is how normal people and giant institutions are supposed to make the judgements that have made the market economy so successful over the past 200 years. Remove the risk for the very biggest and you get distortions every bit as great as a guarenteed job for life in a Marxist Leninist society.

Its upside down comunism. Small investors trying to work hard and judge risks carefully are being crushed out of the system by a biased recovery plan that will harm the reputation of investing in america for a generation.

I think the US handling of this crisis may be doing more to doom us than any geological constraint ever could.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby steam_cannon » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 10:22:01

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('JFT', 'C')arlyle Group? Like in "the" Carlyle Group, the creepy private equity in
which Bush Senior mingles with members of the Bin Laden family?
Really only part of that organization, one head of the hydra...

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '[')b]Carlyle Group

The firm operates four fund families, focusing on leveraged buyouts,
venture & growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance investments.

...

Current portfolio and major acquisitions

In March 2008, Carlyle Capital Corp., a Guernsey-based
affiliate of Carlyle
established in 2006 for the purpose of
investing in U.S. mortgage-backed securities, came under
substantial pressure as the American subprime credit crisis
expanded. The investments of Carlyle Capital Corp. are heavily
leveraged - up to 32 times by some accounts
- and tremors in the
mortgage markets induced several of Carlyle's 13 lenders to make
margin calls or to declare Carlyle in default on its loans.[12] In
response to the forced liquidation of mortgage-backed assets
caused by the Carlyle margin calls and other similar developments
in credit markets, on March 11, 2008, the Federal Reserve gave Wall
Street's primary dealers the right to post mortgaged-back
securities as collateral for loans of up to $200 billion in
higher-grade, U.S. government-backed securities. [13]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carlyle_Group

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', 'T')he firm operates four fund families, focusing on leveraged buyouts,
venture & growth capital, real estate and leveraged finance investments.
Going back to this, they are invested in real estate, leveraged finance,
growth... They are so going to get pummeled in this market!
But hey, that's just my off the cuff opinion. They could be heavily
invested in farmland realestate and looking to make a killing as food prices soar.
But I'm thinking they will be going the way of Enron...
Last edited by steam_cannon on Thu 13 Mar 2008, 10:34:15, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby stu » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 10:26:23

Bush family touched by subprime crisis

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('', '
')The fear in the market according to informed reports is that its entire portfolio, recently valued at $21 billion, could be sold off in a distress sale, putting major downward pressure on all mortgage bonds globally. A collapse at Carlyle would hit the value of all fixed-income securities, which have already dropped sharply as banks pull back on their lending, and force a new global round of asset sales.


http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Global_Eco ... 2Dj02.html
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby mekrob » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 10:37:43

So I have about $3 grand saved up, a little less since I just bought some books and silver over the past 3 days. I've been planning on dumping a good 1-2 thousand dollars into gold and silver (approximately evenly) come May (I'm in an apartment and don't want to have thousands of dollars going through more hands before it gets to me - and I have to go online since there aren't any reputable sources nearby). Do I have enough time to wait till May to dump my dollars or should I do it ASAP to avoid a depreciating dollar? Is there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby Ferretlover » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 11:05:00

The Iron Triangle-The Carlyle Group Exposed
Exposed

CHRONOLOGY: The Bushes And The Carlyle Group
by Jerry Politex, Mon 10 Jan 2000
In early September the "Washington Post" published a story about Bush "top fund-raiser" Wayne Berman, president of Park Strategies LLC in Connecticut, whose activities are being looked at by the FBI. One such activity has $50 million in state pension funds being invested through Park Strategies into a Carlyle Group fund. Carlyle is a "Washington merchant bank and client of Park Strategies that retains former president George Bush as a senior consultant." In 1991 Bush had appointed Berman to be assistant secretary of commerce. Last year Berman and retired senator Al D'Amato (R-NY) formed Park Strategies and hired Paul Silvester, who previously was Connecticut's treasurer and was in charge of investing state pension funds. According to the Washington Post, "Silvester was a catch for the firm because of his familiarity with state treasurers from around the country, who control massive pension funds hungry for new investments. Berman too is intimately familiar with many top state officials because he is a leading fund-raiser for the Republican Governors Association."
The Carlyle Group is also a who's-who of political operatives: "Like Park Strategies, Carlyle also markets its familiarity with government officials--among its partners are former secretary of state James A. Baker III, former defense secretary Frank C. Carlucci and former White House budget chief Richard Darman. The Carlyle Asian investment fund that received the $50 million sum from Connecticut also retains former president Bush as a top adviser, and Carlyle's European fund retains former British prime minister John Major. Both men have made hundreds of thousands of dollars counseling Carlyle on where to invest its money overseas, introducing Carlyle executives to foreign leaders and giving speeches at Carlyle gatherings. Bush's fees from Carlyle are poured into his accounts in various Carlyle funds, which lately have yielded up to 40 percent a year in returns." ...
Who's Who

Carlyle Capital in default, on brink of collapse Mar 13 2008 9:07AM EDT By Reed Stevenson
AMSTERDAM (Reuters) - An affiliate of U.S.-based buyout firm Carlyle Group has defaulted on about $16.6 billion of debt and expects its lenders to seize remaining assets as the global credit crunch tightens around leveraged investors.
Carlyle Capital Corp , a fund listed in Amsterdam, said in New York late on Wednesday that talks with lenders deteriorated after a drop in the value of its mortgage investments, which it said would result in margin calls of $97.5 million on top of the $400 million it was already facing.
A "successful refinancing is not possible," Carlyle Capital said, after trying for the past week to work out a deal with lenders to stave off bankruptcy. …
Defaulting

The Carlyle Group, with more than $75 billion under management, is one of the world's largest private investment firms. Moreover, it seems that Carlyle likes to keep all options open: Undertakings include management-led buyouts, minority equity investments, real estate, venture capital, and leveraged finance opportunities in the aerospace and defense, automotive and transportation, consumer and retail, energy and power, healthcare, industrial, technology and business services, and telecommunications and media sectors. Since its founding in 1987, the firm has made more than 500 corporate and real estate investments; it now maintains offices in about 15 countries and oversees some 50 private equity funds.
Related Companies
Name Exchange Symbol Last Trade Change Mkt Cap
The Gores Group, LLC
Kohlberg & Company, L.L.C.
Carlyle Capital Corporation Limited AMS CCC 0.20 -2.60 (-92.86%) 4.26M
TPG Capital
Henry Crown and Company
D. E. Shaw & Co., L.P.
The Yucaipa Companies LLC
Castle Harlan, Inc.
The Riverside Company
Keystone Group, L.P.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby benzoil » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 11:07:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I')s there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?


I'm no expert, but I'd say no. Currency moves are rarely that dramatic. The dollar losing 2% per month is a "big decline". That said, gold and silver may have already gone stratospheric by May. I have NO clue about that much more volatile market.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby yesplease » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 16:29:29

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I')s there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?
Either the dollar drops more or asset prices increase more IMO. I think it'll be a little of both, more asset prices up than the dollar down, but I could be wrong.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby mekrob » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 16:35:10

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I')s there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?
Either the dollar drops more or asset prices increase more IMO. I think it'll be a little of both, more asset prices up than the dollar down, but I could be wrong.


I wasn't really asking about generalities. It's pretty obvious now that the dollar is dropping and metals are going up for a good while, if not permanently.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby emersonbiggins » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 16:36:38

Apparently, real news like this is trumped by S&P "projections" of the subprime writedowns ending soon (ha!). Result? Dow up 72 points, from -200 at open. Irrational exuberance, indeed.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby threadbear » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 17:06:40

Dolorim, To a degree, you're right. Our system has been destroying cultures and the planet for decades, and we're not out of our mind with shame and fear, until it knocks on our own door.

Who was it that said, "I have seen the enemy, and the enemy is us"?
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby Ferretlover » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 17:14:12

Did anyone keep track of all the changes proposed (?) by Paulsen today?
Are they logical, or ...?
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby Iaato » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 17:45:37

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('Ferretlover', 'S')ince its founding in 1987, the firm has made more than 500 corporate and real estate investments; it now maintains offices in about 15 countries and oversees some 50 private equity funds.
Related Companies
Name Exchange Symbol Last Trade Change Mkt Cap
The Gores Group, LLC
Kohlberg & Company, L.L.C.
Carlyle Capital Corporation Limited AMS CCC 0.20 -2.60 (-92.86%) 4.26M
TPG Capital
Henry Crown and Company
D. E. Shaw & Co., L.P.
The Yucaipa Companies LLC
Castle Harlan, Inc.
The Riverside Company
Keystone Group, L.P.


Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of people. I'm experiencing just a bit of schadenfreude on this one.

TB, that was Pogo (Walt Kelly). We have met the enemy, and he is us.

On Walt Kelly and McCarthyism

Mekrob, why not just rent a safe deposit box for a year, if the issue is apartment living? They're actually very cheap.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby yesplease » Thu 13 Mar 2008, 23:14:04

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('yesplease', '')$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'I')s there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?
Either the dollar drops more or asset prices increase more IMO. I think it'll be a little of both, more asset prices up than the dollar down, but I could be wrong.


I wasn't really asking about generalities. It's pretty obvious now that the dollar is dropping and metals are going up for a good while, if not permanently.
IMO the dollar has already dropped most of what it's going to drop. I figure it'll get down into the 60s at the lowest, but going from 75 to 60+ is nothing compared to going from 125 to 75.
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby mattduke » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 00:33:17

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', 'D')o I have enough time to wait till May to dump my dollars or should I do it ASAP to avoid a depreciating dollar? Is there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?

Maybe...
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Maybe not. Silver dropped sharply in May of '06. Nobody knows how it will play out. Ask yourself if you would rather own silver or dollars. Then decide! Somebody asked the Mogambo guru "how do I know when I have enough?" His response was brilliant. "If you feel like you don't have enough silver, buy some more. Repeat until you feel like you have enough silver. Then stop!" It's a good feeling to be able to say, "I have enough".
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Re: Carlyle Group fund goes under and Asian stocks plunge.

Postby mmasters » Fri 14 Mar 2008, 10:48:05

$this->bbcode_second_pass_quote('mekrob', ' ')Is there a good chance of the dollar losing 20-50% of its value in 2 months?

It's quite possible and a certainty if we have a major event occur in the US.
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